An approaching upper-level disturbance would cause brief high winds and light showers along a dryline across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Ahead of the dryline, severe thunderstorms impacted eastern portions of the Permian Basin.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An approaching upper-level disturbance would cause brief high winds and light showers along a dryline across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Ahead of the dryline, severe thunderstorms impacted eastern portions of the Permian Basin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 11:04 AM CST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 - A low chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening from the Stockton Plateau to Permian Basin. With any thunderstorms that develop a threat of large hail and damaging winds is possible. - Windy and dry conditions this afternoon result in critical fire weather conditions for western portions of the area with hazardous winds for portions of the Guadalupes and Southeast New Mexico. - More rounds of storms early this week accompanied by a couple of cold fronts later on in the week bring increased precipitation chances and slightly cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 An active weather pattern persists as we begin the work week. An upper-level trough is currently centered near the Great Basin region. Through the course of the day, it continues to meander closer to our region. At the surface, a cold front is approaching from the northwest. The surface pressure gradient associated with this front will coincide with the upper-level trough's jet max hovering over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, resulting in breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. The strongest winds are expected over the mountains and southeastern New Mexico. However, winds look to stay just below warning criteria at the moment. Late this afternoon and into the evening, the dryline is expected to set up near the TX/NM border and extend south toward the Big Bend. Warm and dry conditions, breezy winds, and low relative humidity result in a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement over much of southeastern New Mexico into the Big Bend. Ample moisture/instability ahead of the dryline and lift provided by the approaching front may help kick up some storms during this timeframe. Coverage looks relatively isolated, with PoPs ranging from 10%-40%, best chances being over the northeastern Permian Basin. This is also where the best chances for strong to severe storm development lies. Should a storm become severe, the main threats will be large to very large hail and damaging winds, though the possibility of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Highs today top out in the 80s across much of southeastern New Mexico and the higher elevations, the 90s in the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, and the century mark along the Rio Grande. Tonight's lows depend on the exact location of the cold front, as it becomes stationary, with 50s behind the front and 60s ahead. Tuesday, another cold front approaches from the north, eventually stalling out somewhere near the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. The dryline looks to extend from the central Permian Basin down into the Lower Trans Pecos. Strong to severe storm development is again on the table in the vicinity of these boundaries. 10%-50% PoPs are in the forecast, with the highest rain/storm chances over the northeastern Permian Basin, where there will be better moisture and lift near the stationary front. Similar to Monday, the main threats with any severe storms that develop will be large to very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado or two. Highs Tuesday will primarily be in the 80s, though 90s will be more common near the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 The active weather pattern continues into the long term period. An upper trough over the western U.S. kicks out east Tuesday into Wednesday increasing rain chances in the Permian Basin. The trough will be the upper trigger with a weak surface front and dryline providing the surface focus for convection. The highest rain chances will be in the northern Permian Basin near the stationary front and the eastern Permian Basin along the dryline. There is uncertainty in the exact location of both these features so it is best not to focus on exact rain probabilities but instead the general area. Instability and shear will be enough to keep severe thunderstorms a threat which is normal for this time of year. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the middle of the week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s, except along the Rio Grande. A second upper trough moves into the north central Great Plains sending a cold front south into the CWA on Friday. This may be our best chance for widespread rainfall in the next seven days, and with cooler air settling in behind the front CAPE may be limited as well as the severe threat. It would be nice to get some rainfall without the worry of too much severe weather. Temperatures fall back below normal as highs struggle to make it out of the 70s to end the week. Can't complain about that to start the month of May, especially when we were pushing 100 degrees just a couple of weeks ago. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 VFR VIS and CIGs outside of showers/storms and MVFR or lower VIS and CIGs in and within vicinity of persistent showers/storms. Southerly winds at terminals, becoming westerly across SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos west of dryline and backing to more southeasterly east of dryline by 08Z-10Z Tuesday, continuing into end of period. Left out mention of showers/storms in TAFs due to uncertainties in timing and coverage, but there is a chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms for terminals from the Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau 21Z today into 04Z Tuesday, with highest chance over eastern Permian Basin. There is a risk of gusty winds, blowing dust, hail, and lightning in any storms this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of the area west of the Pecos River this afternoon. The relative humidity will be very low today but winds will be marginal so widespread critical conditions are not expected. Poor to fair humidity is expected tonight then tomorrow will be similar to today in the same area and will have to be monitored for another statement. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 64 86 60 84 / 30 40 70 20 Carlsbad 56 87 53 83 / 0 10 20 0 Dryden 64 88 63 90 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Stockton 65 90 60 86 / 20 30 40 10 Guadalupe Pass 56 79 52 74 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 56 86 52 80 / 10 10 40 10 Marfa 55 85 52 78 / 20 10 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 86 60 83 / 30 20 50 10 Odessa 63 86 60 83 / 30 20 50 10 Wink 62 90 57 86 / 20 10 40 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...94
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 139 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:52 UTC.
3 high wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station, 2N Coyanosa, measured a maximum wind gust of 74 MPH. This was from a dry microburst along the dryline under weak showers ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance.
A Texas Water Development Board site, TWB47 13.9 SE Toyah Lake, measured a maximum wind gust of 60 MPH.
Ping pong to golf ball-sized hail reported by the public via social media. Time was estimated by radar.
The Odessa ASOS (KODO) station measured a maximum wind gust of 63 MPH. This was from a dry microburst along the dryline under weak showers ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance.
Ping pong ball-sized hail reported by NWS employee about 5 miles ENE of Saint Lawrence. Time is estimated from radar.
A trained spotter reported golf ball-sized hail east of Seminole. The time is estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1244806, 1244807, 1244803, 1244802, 1244804, 1244805.