Rip Current in Texas, April 18, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Today will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures
rising into the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas but the
immediate coast, which will stay in the low 80s. Otherwise, expect
partly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds today. Wind gusts
will generally be between 20-25mph, but could see isolated gusts
to 30mph west of the Brazos. Don't think these high gusts will be
frequent enough to warrant a Wind Advisory, but its something that
could be issued if winds end up stronger than currently expected.
Cloud coverage increases tonight, which combined with WAA ahead of
an approaching disturbance from the west will lead to overnight
lows not dropping below the low 70s for much of the region. Increased
cloud coverage on Saturday will lead to slightly cooler temperatures,
but still staying in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with
low temperatures again in the low 70s Saturday night.

A large upper level low will be moving through the Desert
Southwest on Saturday with shortwave troughs passing through the
Southern Plains. We will likely be too far east to get any
widespread precipitation on Saturday, but could see some isolated
showers Saturday afternoon due to daytime heating and increasing
PWATs across the area. The large upper level low will move into
northern Texas/Oklahoma Saturday night with showers and
thunderstorms developing along the the I-35 corridor to our
northwest. By late Saturday night/daybreak Sunday, these showers
and storms could extend into the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley - but
the majority of the precipitation expected from this disturbance
will fall during the day on Sunday, which you can read more about
tin the Long Term below.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

A well stacked low pressure system is expected push northeastward
from Oklahoma to Missouri on Easter Sunday. The low's trailing
front will slowly push southeastward across SE TX on Sunday into
Monday. The environment is expected to be highly sheared during
the first half of Sunday. Afterward, shear gradually subsides as
the low pushes north and takes much of its hear with it. However,
small disturbances in the flow aloft, coupled with LL convergence
from the front and ample moisture and instability should allow the
development of at least scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. But we cannot rule out the presence of deeper
convection and a few stronger / heavier thunderstorms on Sunday.
The front becomes increasingly diffused on Monday but could still
provide enough forcing to spark scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity on Monday.

Beyond Monday, the flow pattern becomes more zonal with a
continuous train of upper level disturbances. Therefore, the
chance of showers and thunderstorms remains elevated through the
duration of the long term. Regarding temperatures, expect
generally warm and humid conditions with highs in the 80s and lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

With the exception of some sites closest to the coast, MVFR
ceilings continue to scatter out. With mixing, gusty south winds
15-25kt will be the primary aviation issue for the remainder of
the day. This evening and overnight, expect 1000-2500ft ceilings
to fill back in from south to north. Surface winds speeds, though
a bit lower than the day, will remain up overnight. Think speeds
will remain up enough to preclude the mention of llvl wind shear,
but it should be noted there could be some bumpy conditions with
some prevailing southerly 30-45kt winds in the low levels of the
atmosphere. Saturday mid morning onward, am again looking for
erosion of MVFR ceilings (except maybe at the coast) with wind
speeds again increasing and becoming gusty. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Enhanced southeasterly fetch will continue into the weekend,
bringing hazardous Gulf seas and periods of Small Craft Winds. The
rip current risk is likely to be elevated as well. Water levels
could approach 3 feet above MLLW during the high tide cycles this
weekend. Therefore, minor coastal flooding could not be ruled out.
Current forecast water levels remain below coastal flood advisory
levels.  Winds are expected to weaken on Sunday and Monday. However,
there will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
during the Sunday to Monday time frame. Southeasterly winds may
increase again by the middle of next week with a continuing chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  90  70  87  69 /   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)			  90  72  86  72 /   0   0  10  20
Galveston (GLS)			  81  74  81  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&