High Wind in Texas, April 1, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 447 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

- Strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions
  will impact southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas today.

- An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out over the
  eastern and northeastern Permian Basin tonight.

- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

While things are starting off relatively calm early this morning,
the first day of April will feature strong winds, blowing dust, and
critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. A potent mid to upper-level jet will streak
across the Four Corners Region/Desert Southwest and into New Mexico
and west Texas through tonight along the base of a deepening trough
over the western CONUS. Surface low pressure developing over eastern
Colorado early this morning will shift toward Kansas and the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles by this afternoon, while the associated
surface trough axis extends southward through much of our area.
Southwesterly winds will increase over much of our forecast area
later this morning as the gradient tightens along the surface trough
axis and as stronger winds aloft also spread into our region. The
strongest winds are expected over the Guadalupe Mountains in
association with a developing mountain wave and expect W/SW winds to
ramp up to 45-55 mph with some gusts up to around 75 mph. High winds
should also spread out into the plains of Culberson county TX as
well as Eddy county NM and central/northern Lea county NM where
sustained speeds up to 35-45 mph with gusts around 60 mph are
anticipated. A High Wind Warning will remain in effect for these
locations today. High winds may persist over theses locations into
the evening before gradually coming down late. The warning
technically continues through late tonight, but we may be able to
trim back Eddy/Lea/Culberson prior to expiration at 4 AM CDT /3 AM
MDT/ as winds gradually decrease late this evening. The high winds
will likely continue through the expiration time in the Guadalupes.
A Wind Advisory will otherwise remain in effect for much of the
Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains/Van Horn
Corridor/Marfa Plateau areas where sustained winds up to 25-35 mph
with gusts up to 55 mph are anticipated this afternoon and evening.
The strong winds and ongoing drought conditions will likely aid in
blowing dust over much of the area and we opted to issue a Blowing
Dust Advisory to accompany locations in the High Wind Warning and
Wind Advisory areas. We will be monitoring trends closely and will
be prepared to issue localized Dust Storm Warnings if visibility
from dust becomes reduced to 1/4 mile or less today.  High
temperatures today will trend 10-15 degrees above normal in the 80s
and 90s over much of the area, with a few locations along the Rio
Grande potentially reaching the century mark.

A dryline extending from the Permian Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos
this morning should push eastward through most of our CWA by this
afternoon before retreating back into the eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos areas this evening. A shortwave impulse embedded
within southwesterly flow aloft should lift across the region late
this evening and could provide enough ascent to aid in the
development of an isolated strong to severe storm over the far
eastern or northeastern Basin along the dryline and ahead of an
approaching Pacific front by around or shortly after midnight
tonight. Any storm that develops would be capable of producing
hail/strong winds but would quickly lift east of our region, so the
severe threat would be marginal and brief. Winds otherwise turn
westerly to northwesterly overnight following the passage of the
Pacific front. Dry conditions are anticipated Wednesday with cooler
temperatures in the 70s and 80s, except 60s mountains and 90s along
the Rio Grande. We could have another brief window of high winds in
the Guadalupe Mountains again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Will let
the day shift take another look to determine if additional high wind
products will be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The long term forecast begins with an active pattern as a broad mid-
level trough begins to move in from the west Wednesday night,
bringing cooler temperatures behind a cold front. Overnight lows
only drop a few degrees cooler than the previous night as mid-level
clouds limit radiational cooling effects. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the 40s for much of southeast New Mexico and the
mountains while most other locations look to see lows in the 50s.
Forecast soundings show that the middle and upper portions of the
troposphere remain moist for clouds to stick around Thursday. This
will limit how warm afternoon highs get due to lack of insolation
from the sun. Highs Thursday are expected to range from the upper
60s to mid 70s for much of the area, with 80s further south.
Portions of the Big Bend (near the Rio Grande) may see highs top out
in the 90s.

The aforementioned mid-level trough continues to deepen into
Thursday night and model guidance depicts the development of
precipitation with the arrival of another cold front. Higher chances
of rainfall occur after midnight Thursday night as low-level
moisture begins moving into the region. The highest chances (40-60%)
of rainfall are forecast to be in southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin. The mid-level trough moves eastward on Friday and
difluent flow in the exit region of the jet suggests greater large
scale ascent owing to mass continuity. By late Friday
afternoon/evening, a shortwave is anticipated to move into the area,
coinciding with increased low-level moisture. This will increase
chances (60-80% primarily north of I-20) of showers and
thunderstorms during this timeframe. It is still a little too early
to discern storm mode at this moment. However, current model
soundings depict straight-line hodographs in the upper-right
quadrant which suggests a line of multicell storms. Locations south
of I-10 will likely miss out on measurable rainfall as low-level
moisture may be insufficient.

A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday as mid-level
troughing continues, bringing cooler temperatures this weekend and
more chances of precipitation. The highest chances of precipitation
looks to generally be north of I-20 again where more moisture is
expected to be present. Highs/lows are forecast to be in the 50s/60s
for most, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s/40s Saturday and
Sunday. Precipitation chances remain late Saturday evening through
midnight Sunday. There is even the potential of a rain/snow mix and
low amounts of measurable snowfall in the Guadalupes during this
timeframe as temperatures may be cold enough to favor some wintry
precipitation. It is important to note that we will likely need to
make changes to the forecast as more data comes in closer to the
weekend. Ensemble and deterministic guidance depict a mid-level
ridge moving into the area by early next week, signaling warmer
temperatures in the extended.

-Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

VFR conditions will be prevalent for the most part across our
region through the overnight and early morning hours. A
strengthening low level jet and low level moisture return could
result in developing low ceilings across the eastern Permian Basin
between 10-15Z. Confidence that low ceilings will impact KMAF was
too low to include mention of MVFR ceilings with this forecast.
Winds will shift southwesterly to westerly and increase to 20-30
kt across most local terminals with some gusts in excess of 35-45
knots late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Areas of
blowing dust will likely develop and restrict visibility to less
than 3 miles at times, perhaps locally to less than 1 mile Tuesday
afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Critical fire weather conditions return to all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico today as an intense mid-level disturbance will
bring high winds, well above normal temperatures, and critical RHs
(<15%) to the region. Daytime mixing will transfer drier air and
upper-level momentum to the surface, thus bringing high
southwesterly winds and RHs as low as the single digits. Presence of
high clouds and blowing dust may mitigate the fire weather threat
today. Another round of near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions return on Wednesday, particularly across western and
southern portions of our forecast area. Fire weather concerns
diminish by this weekend as moisture and much cooler temperatures
are expected to return to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  55  80  52 /   0  10   0  20
Carlsbad                 85  51  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            92  56  80  52 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           76  45  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  46  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    85  48  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     91  54  78  53 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                   90  54  77  53 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     91  51  80  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM
     CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to
     10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM MDT Wednesday
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21