Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, April 1 to 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

- A few strong-to-severe thunderstorms likely later
  today/tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk
  will exist with strongest storms.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns will emerge
  through this evening across far western Oklahoma and western-
  north Texas.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.
  Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out at this time,
  especially late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Potential exists for an impactful severe weather episode, along with
areas of fire concern, across the area this evening into the
overnight. Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a
strong upper system digging across the Desert Southwest. As a
dryline continues to sharpen/evolve across western Oklahoma into
western-north Texas, risk for fire and severe weather will
increase imminently.

* Severe Weather

Still expecting two "rounds" of thunderstorm potential across the
area, beginning near/after ~4-5 PM this evening. The first round
includes the potential for development of a few significant
supercell thunderstorms, posing a risk for very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes (a few potentially strong/EF2+). The
timing of a lead upper wave and quality of moisture return will
determine if/how many storms form via the dryline circulation this
afternoon. Any activity that develops with this round will
end/move east around 9-11 PM this evening.

Another period of severe thunderstorm activity will arrive by very
early Wednesday morning (~12-1 AM) as a frontal boundary begins to
slide into portions of north-central Oklahoma. Scattered-to-
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along this feature
as it progresses slowly southeastward across
central/southern/eastern Oklahoma. Damaging winds and large hail
will remain common hazards with strongest thunderstorms, and a risk
for a few embedded tornadoes will also remain. The threat for
at least occasional severe weather will persist through much of
the morning across southeastern zones, ending towards ~midday.

* Fire Weather

As the dryline advances eastward, a hot, dry and windy airmass will
advance into far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas, fostering
problematic fire concern (near-critical to critical condition)
through the late evening (~8-9 PM). A Red Flag Warning continues
far portions of these areas until 8 PM.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The aforementioned front will continue meandering eastward
through the day on Wednesday, perhaps stalling across far
southeastern Oklahoma by the afternoon. While greatest
thunderstorm coverage should focus east of the forecast area, one
or two may affect these areas into the afternoon. By the late
evening, as an embedded upper system begins to rotate into the
Southern Plains, a once quasi-stationary boundary will begin to
lift northward as an effective warm front. Widespread shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to ensue near this feature
(across southern Oklahoma/western-north Texas) late Wednesday into
early Thursday. This includes some potential for severe weather
(mainly large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts).

Thursday morning will feature continued shower and thunderstorm
coverage, mainly from east-central into southeast Oklahoma. The
daytime hours are forecast to be drier in the wake of the departing
system. An additional round of precipitation is again expected by
early Friday.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The active wet pattern will continue into the weekend with the main
upper trough not shifting eastward until this weekend. Widespread
rain chances will continue the rest of the work week with the
precipitation chances expected to end late this weekend.
Strong/severe storms could remain possible in parts of the area
although this could be dependent on what occurred the previous
day/night. With the multiple rounds of rain, several inches of rain
are expected, especially in SE parts of the fa, for the start of
April. Northern/western parts of the fa will likely see the least
amount of rain but could see around an inch total over the multiple
days.

A cold front is expected to move across the area late this week
bringing cooler air to the region. Low temperatures over the weekend
are currently forecast to be at or below freezing across portions of
northern and western OK. Highs will be well below average this
weekend as well with temperatures in the 50s/60s Saturday and 50s
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Thunderstorms will be possible between 23-03Z at all terminals
near to east of I-44 through Oklahoma City to just east of the
I-35 corridor into northern Oklahoma. Should any convection
develop over any of these terminals could see lowered ceilings and
reduced visibilities from heavy rainfall resulting in periods of
MVFR conditions at these affected terminals. Stratus lingering
across southeast Oklahoma will keep terminals KDUA under MVFR
conditions at least through 01Z but likely to return by 05Z. All
terminals except KWWR & KCSM may see additional showers after 08Z
just ahead of a surface boundary (cold front & dryline) pushing
through. Surface winds will stay gusty out of the south and will
start veering southwest to west after 12Z as the surface boundary
start pushing through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  74  51  65 /  70  20  40  40
Hobart OK         55  75  49  70 /  30   0  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  62  80  52  70 /  50  20  70  30
Gage OK           49  71  44  68 /  10   0  50  30
Ponca City OK     58  72  49  63 /  60  10  20  40
Durant OK         67  82  57  70 /  60  50  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ004>038-044.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-014-
     021-033-034-036.

TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ083>089.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68