The start of a new year brought slight drought improvements to Middle Tennessee in January 2025. A significant winter storm in the middle of the month brought an average of 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
The start of a new year brought slight drought improvements to Middle Tennessee in January 2025. A significant winter storm in the middle of the month brought an average of 3 to 6 inches of snow. Its liquid equivalent combined with additional rain throughout the month meant Middle Tennessee received 3 to 7 inches of liquid precipitation. Unfortunately, the higher liquid totals generally favored the northern half of Middle TN and not the worst of the drought are across the south. Still, this did lead to drought improvement with about 30 percent of the area in at least severe drought. About 6 percent of this area was classified as extreme drought which was an improvement from 12 percent in December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:50 PM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1050 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 - Some light rain through this evening, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau. Dry conditions with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are expected for midnight celebrations. - Much colder temperatures return for the remainder of the week. - Next chance of precipitation returns Sunday and into Monday. Confidence is low in precipitation type and any amounts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 651 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Radar shows some weak returns moving through middle TN this evening. Most, if any precipitation, is falling as light rain or even drizzle. The Cumberland Plateau is measuring a couple hundredths here and there where the Nashville area has seen a trace of precipitation. To account for this, added some 15% POP through 03z. Overall, forecast remains on track with gusty winds and cooling temperatures. Still expecting those wind chills to drop into the mid-30s by midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1008 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 A strong 994mb surface low is being analyzed over central Indiana this morning, and with it is a cold front that is currently moving through western Middle TN. This front and strong pressure gradient is responsible for gusty winds this afternoon generally ranging from 25 to 35 mph. A few sites this morning have gotten close to 40 mph, but these are sporadic and not widespread. Thus, have opted to not issue a Wind Advisory today. Otherwise, a low chance for light rain remains, primarily for northern Middle TN and the Plateau. However, the day won't be a washout as most of the area will remain dry, and anyone who does see rain will accumulate less than a tenth of an inch. Gusty winds through this afternoon will gradually diminish after sunset along with any light rain. Winds won't be completely calm by midnight as gusts of 10 to 20 mph persist. Temperatures will be chilly in the wake of the front in the 40s, but with these winds, wind chills will be in the 30s as the clock strikes midnight. Bundle up! Temperatures will remains chilly on Wednesday with highs only warming into the upper-30s to mid-40s. Skies will gradually clear and winds will continue to lessen as the aforementioned low moves away from the area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1008 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 The remainder of the work week will be quiet with dry conditions. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Friday as a trough and its cold front tracks east out of the Rockies. By Friday night, our lows will be in the teens to low-20s, and we'll only warm up into the 30s on Saturday. Now let's talk about Sunday and early next week: BLUF: There is still A LOT of uncertainty with the system Sunday and into Monday regarding precipitation type, amounts, and timing. The details will change as we near the event, but here is the current thinking. By early Sunday, a strong upper-level low deepens over the southern Rockies and into the TX Panhandle. As it tracks east/northeast, chances are high that it will bring colder air and precipitation to Middle TN. But there are multiple scenarios that can play out. This is because models continue to have a hard time with the system's overall track. Scenario #1: The low takes a more northeasterly track out of the TX Panhandle and moves to the north of Middle TN. This scenario still brings a high chance of precipitation to our area. However, temperatures would trend warmer, especially aloft. Precipitation types would be messier with current forecast thinking that precipitation would begin as rain, transition to freezing rain as ground temperatures cool, and then finally transition to snow as colder air continues to move into the area. This scenario is primarily supported by GEFS and GEPS ensemble members, and at this time, looks to be the more likely scenario. Scenario #2: The low takes a more southerly track out of the TX Panhandle, centering itself around northern AR by late Sunday. Still a high chance of precipitation in this scenario, but temperatures here trend colder because the low is much farther south. Precipitation types in this scenario would be simpler, likely still starting out as rain before transitioning to just snow. This scenario is primarily supported by the European ensemble members, and at this time, looks to be the least likely scenario. Whatever wintry precipitation we get looks to come to an end by Tuesday. By then, we'll be bracing for very cold air with a high chance (90%) that temperatures will be below normal through next week. Please stay up-to-date on this changing forecast! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 MVFR ceilings will impact the terminals through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions will return during the afternoon as the stratus deck scatters. Winds will continue out of the WNW around 7-12 kts through Wednesday afternoon before decreasing to 5 kts or less after 02/00z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 36 46 29 46 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 34 43 27 45 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 31 39 20 42 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 35 46 25 47 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 34 40 24 43 / 20 0 0 0 Jamestown 32 39 22 41 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 35 45 25 46 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 36 45 24 46 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 33 43 27 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Reagan
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 improved in January 2025 with severe drought conditions across Giles County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Lawrence County.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 improved in January 2025 with just severe drought conditions across the eastern half of Maury County.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Marshall County.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Bedford County.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Coffee County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across southern Rutherford County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across southern Overton County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across eastern Putnam County.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Cumberland County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across southeast DeKalb County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across White County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across southern Cannon County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Warren County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Van Buren County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across Grundy County.
Severe drought conditions from December 2024 continued in January 2025 across southern Fentress County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1226318, 1226319, 1226320, 1226321, 1226322, 1226323, 1226324, 1226325, 1226326, 1226327, 1226328, 1226329, 1226330, 1226331, 1226332, 1226333, 1226334.