Drought in South Dakota, May 1 to 13, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of shower/weak thunderstorm activity today/tomorrow.
  First along a cold front from Aberdeen to Pierre and points east
  this afternoon (40-70% chance for showers). 2nd round comes in
  tomorrow from the northwest and spreads southeast (30-60% chance
  for showers).

- Probabilities for exceeding 0.25" and 0.5" rain now through the
  end of Thursday focused across northeast South Dakota at 70% and
  40% respectively with lower potential in central/north central
  SD.

- A warmup is expected this weekend, with high temperatures in the
  80s, which is 15-20 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Still watching the main line of showers slowly march east across
the James River valley, while a second round of light rain is
moving eastward across north central/central SD. Will make further
adjustments to PoPs (rain chances) based on latest radar trends
and expectations. Otherwise, will freshen up sky/wind details
through 12Z, while generally letting the lows in the 40s ride in
the current forecast. Grid/forecast updates will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Front extends southwest to northeast across central South Dakota
east of Pierre and then up more north northeast towards Eureka. Flow
ahead of this feature is southwesterly allowing for temperatures to
overachieve, and also bringing in some "higher" dewpoints in the low
to mid 40s. Convergence and some higher rh values, combined with a
weakly unstable atmosphere is resulting in cumulus development. As
the day progresses, storms depicted in CAMS will develop along the
front and drift slowly east under a weak shear environment.

CAMS actually keep a chunk of this going into the Watertown/Sisseton
hills region in the evening/early overnight hours. Then we start to
see the next shortwave drift down from the northwest. Environment
for Thursday is likewise weakly sheared with limited instability, but
daytime heating is enough to support scattered convection. Overall,
covering both events, NBM probabilities point to most rainfall
occurring across the northeast of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

When the period opens Friday morning, a highly amplified positive PNA
blocking pattern (upper ridge west/upper trof east) is over the
CONUS, with this CWA starting off in northwest flow aloft. During
the first half of the period, guidance has this ridge/trof pattern
propagating eastward such that by daytime heating hours on Sunday
the upper level ridge's axis is over the CWA, with upper
trofs/closed lows to the west and east (Omega block pattern). For
the rest of the period, it appears the models want to devolve the
upper pattern into more of a chaotic, split flow pattern look and
feel. Some of the lowest forecast confidence in a while is attached
to the forecast beyond Sunday. Regarding the precipitation forecast,
not a good setup for trying to hang a hat on any particular forecast
period in the extended beyond Sunday. Right now, looks like most of
the out periods should be dry. Temperatures, for the most part, do
appear to trend warmer through the period. There is a cold front
showing up somewhere over the region next week, and depending on
which side of the boundary the CWA ends up spending more time on,
determines whether the trend of warmer days persists or is cut short
by a cold fropa and ensuing low level CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of -SHRA/-RA will move east across the region at the start of
the TAF period, with another round of showers expected mid/late
Thursday afternoon. Some of the showers on Thursday will be of the
TSRA variety as well. VSBY may drop to MVFR in any heavier showers,
more so on Thursday. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop over the KATY
region prior to sunrise Thursday, but then improve to VFR later
Thursday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
706 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

SDZ003>005-009-015-016-033>035-045-020015-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-
Jones-
706 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 /606 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region again
Thursday afternoon. The threat for severe storms is low, but small
hail may accompany any stronger storm cells.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ006-007-010-017-018-036-037-048-051-020015-
Brown-Marshall-Edmunds-Faulk-Spink-Hyde-Hand-Lyman-Buffalo-
706 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect portions of central
and northeast South Dakota this evening/tonight. The threat for
severe storms is very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region again
Thursday afternoon. The threat for severe storms is low, but small
hail may accompany any stronger storm cells.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-011-019>023-020015-
Traverse-Big Stone-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
706 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect portions of central
and northeast South Dakota this evening/tonight. The threat for
severe storms is very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region again
Thursday afternoon. The threat for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TMT