Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, May 1 to 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms may develop across Central Texas this afternoon
  and evening (20-30%). Large to very large hail and damaging
  winds are the main hazards in any storms that develop.

- Additional storms will arrive late tonight/early morning Friday
  with a cold front, continuing into Central Texas in the
  afternoon and evening. A few storms may be severe and produce
  heavy rain/localized flooding.

- Nice weather arrives in time for the weekend, followed by more
  storm chances early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025/
/Rest of Today through Friday Evening/

A blanket of stratus has been draped across much of North and
Central Texas this morning and will continue to slowly lift and
scatter this afternoon. Areas underneath this cloud cover have
been slow to warm this morning with temperatures now starting to
climb into the 70s, versus the low and mid 80s across the
southwest where its been mostly clear. Highs will top out in the
mid 80s to low 90s for most locations today.

Attention has turned to this afternoon across Central Texas,
where a weak boundary currently resides. This will provide a focus
for ascent for thunderstorm development with isolated (20-30%)
coverage expected. Guidance currently depicts mean CAPE values
anywhere from 2500-4000 J/kg, with the hi-res guidance in decent
agreement of at least a storm or two developing in the southern
portion of the forecast area, most likely near the Temple-Killeen
area and in and around the Brazos Valley. The "fat" CAPE, 700-500
mb lapse rates ~7.0 C/km or greater, as well as shear between
40-50kts would support large updrafts capable of large to very
large hail and damaging winds. The more robust storms that do
develop should either exit the forecast area and/or dissipate by
around 9 PM or so.

A somewhat short period of quiet weather is then likely for most
of the overnight period before additional thunderstorm chances
return late tonight/early Friday morning with a front. Thunderstorm
chances will increase along the Red River between 2-5 AM, however
most of the convection should stay farther north during this time
period. There is uncertainty in how organized this complex of
storms will become in the morning hours, but conditions will be
favorable for a few strong to severe storms with a large hail and
damaging wind threat as it moves through North Texas in the
morning. The shortwave sending this activity through the region
will shift southeast across the Plains through the day, with
diffluent upper level flow and better lift arriving in the
afternoon. This will coincide with the effective front/outflow
from the morning convection now likely being draped somewhere
south of I-20 during afternoon heating and destabilization.
Additional storm development in Central Texas is likely, as well
as reintensification of any storms still ongoing across the
forecast area. These will maintain the greatest threat being large
hail and damaging winds, but a lower tornado threat will exist as
well, dependent on the specific storm/boundary location. The
damaging wind threat will be dependent on how well the morning
cluster persists into the afternoon, and how quickly any scattered
development congeals into clusters, but in general, an increase
in the damaging wind threat is expected as the storms shift
farther south through Central Texas late afternoon and in the
evening with the anticipated upscale growth.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Onward/

Beyond Friday, a quiet couple of days are expected over the weekend.
Weak ridging will prevail with a quasi omega block pattern, as a
second upper level low dives south and east from the upper West
Coast. Highs will be in the 70s each day, with no rain chances in
the forecast.

Conditions will start to change early next week with the return of
an unsettled pattern, although there is fairly considerable
uncertainty in the extent of available moisture and what areas
will see the greatest lift/potential for more organized
convection. The initial arrival of a shortwave Monday into Tuesday
will bring low storm chances back to western North and Central
Texas as the upper low slowly translates out of the Four Corners,
but the more significant synoptic lift doesn't look to arrive
until Days 6/7 (Tuesday/Wednesday). Looking at ensemble guidance
and EFI/M-climate percentiles, there is a low (but non-zero)
signal for more pronounced heavy rain that will need to be
monitored as we get closer. Right now however, the current axis of
heaviest precipitation looks to be outside of the forecast area.
Widespread wetting rain is still likely, with current 25th-75th
percentile ranges for Monday night through Wednesday depicting
totals from around 0.5-1" on the lower end to 2.5-3.5" on the
upper end. As with this time of year, there looks to be some
potential for severe weather as well, but similarly, the signal is
not overly impressive at this stage. Otherwise, highs will be in
the 70s early next week with lows in the 50s/60s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

LIFR/IFR has slowly improved this morning with ceilings now high
end IFR/low end MVFR across D10. These are expected to linger
another few hours before scattering around 21Z with an
improvement to VFR conditions. For the rest of today, the main
concern is then directed towards KACT where there is a low chance
of TSRA impacting the site, with the greatest potential between
22-02Z. Coverage in the area will be isolated and confidence of
actual impacts is too low to include any VCTS/TSRA. Large hail and
damaging winds would likely accompany the stronger storms that
are able to develop.

Tonight, additional stratus will develop in Central and East TX,
with lower confidence on how far west into D10 the cigs will
spread. Lower end MVFR will likely deteriorate into IFR, which is
more likely to occur at Waco, but this may end up skirting just
to the east of ACT. A TEMPO for IFR was included to account for
the lower potential at ACT and GKY/DAL with potential expansion
of IFR across D10 in future issuances. Thunderstorms are expected
to be near the Red River early morning Friday which will gradually
shift into D10 and then down into Central TX (outside of the TAF
period). VCTS has been introduced for D10 sites beginning at 16Z
but high uncertainty exists in the greatest window for any TSRA
potential based on current guidance.

Gordon

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be needed this afternoon in Central
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  77  56  75  54 /  30  80  30   0   0
Waco                65  77  59  74  51 /  20  80  60   5   0
Paris               62  74  53  72  49 /  50  80  40   0   0
Denton              61  74  50  73  47 /  50  70  20   0   0
McKinney            63  74  53  73  50 /  50  80  30   0   0
Dallas              65  77  57  75  54 /  30  80  40   0   0
Terrell             64  77  55  74  50 /  20  80  50   0   0
Corsicana           67  79  60  76  53 /  10  80  70   5   0
Temple              66  81  59  77  51 /  20  80  70   5   5
Mineral Wells       62  77  51  76  49 /  30  70  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-
156>160-174-175.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
205 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     Tornado          3 W Celina              33.33N 96.84W
04/30/2025                   Denton             TX   Public

            Picture and video evidence confirmed a brief
            tornado west of Celina. Minor tree damage
            was found along County Road 9. This tornado
            was rated EF-0 with maximum estimated winds
            of 70 mph.

0128 PM     Tornado          1 WNW Mertens           32.07N 96.91W
04/30/2025                   Hill               TX   Public

            Corrects previous funnel cloud report from 2
            NW Mertens. Video of a brief tornado near
            Mertens that appeared to be over a field. No
            damage was reported. This tornado was rated
            an EF-U (Unknown).

&&