A locally induced afternoon thunderstorm over Mayaguez produced minor urban flooding on May 27th.
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The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A locally induced afternoon thunderstorm over Mayaguez produced minor urban flooding on May 27th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 1:45 PM AST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 145 PM AST Tue May 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Saharan Air dust particles will continue for this evening into early Wednesday. Instability present will lead afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily across central and western Puerto Rico. * Another dense plume of Saharan dust with higher concentrations is expected to arrive early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday... A variable morning was observed with a hazy weather pattern across portions of the island. By late morning, satellite imagery showed the development of cloud cover across the mountainous interior, leading to the formation of showers over the western interior of Puerto Rico. This activity is expected to remain localized across western interior areas, especially across Las Marias, San Sebastian, Moca and Aguada municipalities. Temperatures ranged from the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees at some stations along the northern coast of the island. Hazy skies will persist for tonight across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to the continued presence of moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust. The 12Z TJSJ RAOB indicate below-normal mid-level moisture, with relative humidity values ranging from 30% to 50% in the 700 to 500 mb and 850 to 700 mb layers. This dry mid-level environment, combined with moderate instability from an upper- level trough and slightly cooler 500 mb temperatures near -7.5°C, will limit deep convection but still support the development of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and brief thunderstorms. These are most likely to occur over western Puerto Rico and the eastern interior, driven by local sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating. The upper-level trough west of the region will continue to enhance divergence aloft through the period, which may help sustain convective activity despite limited moisture. Nevertheless, Saharan dust is expected to gradually diminish by early Wednesday, improving visibility and air quality across the region. For the remainder of the week, model guidance suggests a progressive drying trend, with precipitable water values expected to drop from around 1.8 inches today to near 1.4 inches by Thursday. This will support increasingly stable conditions across the islands, particularly from mid to late week, reducing both the coverage and intensity of afternoon showers. However, shallow pockets of moisture embedded in the trade winds could still result in a few overnight showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Winds near the 925 mb level are forecast to remain moderate from the east- northeast, favoring afternoon convection across the southwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Despite the expected decrease in haze and moisture, surface temperatures will remain seasonably warm, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, especially across the interior and southwestern portions of the island. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...from previous discussion... A tropical wave will move south of the region from Friday into Saturday, increasing moisture across the region. The bulk of the moisture will remain south of the area on Friday with limited impacts over the area. However, as the wave moves toward the Dominican Republic, some moisture associated with the wave will reach portions of the Mona Passage and western Puerto Rico. Therefore, showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over this region, particularly on Friday afternoon into the evening. A second tropical wave is expected to move fast south of the area on Saturday night into early Sunday with very limited impacts over the region. The latest precipitable water content (PWAT) guidance suggest seasonal climatological values during the weekend period (1.6 to 1.8 inches). As the weekend progresses a mid-to-upper level ridge will build over the northeastern Caribbean promoting stability aloft and drier conditions. With the 500 mb temperatures expected to warm up to near above normal values of -6°C and -7°C through early next week. At the surface, a strong high pressure in the central Atlantic will promote southeasterly winds and the entrance of a drier air mass on Sunday, that is expected to last through mid-week. A dense plume of Saharan Air Layer will reach the islands by early next week, with moderate to high concentrations of dust particles. Therefore, expect hazy skies, reduced visibilities and and poor air quality next week. Warm to hot temperatures are expected too, with temperatures in the 925 mb at above normal climatological values during the weekend into next week, particularly over the northern, western and southern coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Highs will remain in the range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal and urban areas, and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the higher mountains. && .AVIATION... Brief MVFR conditions will persist along TJBQ until 27/22Z. VFR conditions are forecast for the rest of the TAF sites with HZ and cloudiness in the FL030 to FL040. SHRA will forecast again across TIST and TISX for around 28/06 to 27/12Z. Winds will continue from the E at 15 knots with gusty winds decreasing at 27/23Z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure building over the Atlantic Basin will promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds this week. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across the western coastal waters of Puerto Rico each afternoon and evening. Hazy skies and reduced visibilities are expected through mid-week as Saharan dust moves over the region. && .BEACH FORECAST... There is a moderate risk of rip current for the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico for today into this evening. The rip current risk will remain low for the rest of the coastal areas. A low risk of rip currents will return tomorrow for all islands. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && SHORT TERM & AVIATION...LIS LONG TERM....midnight crew
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service San Juan PR 507 AM AST Tue May 27 2025 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-280915- San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior- North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest- Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques- The nearshore and off shore Atlantic and Caribbean Coastal Waters- 507 AM AST Tue May 27 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Puerto Rico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Lightning...Isolated thunderstorms expected, particularly across western Puerto Rico. Stay alert and be prepared to take shelter if storms develop. .Excessive Rainfall...Flooding in urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes, particularly across western PR. There is a low chance of isolated flash floods. Elsewhere, plan for water ponding on roads and in poorly drained areas. .Excessive Heat...This level of heat affects primarily those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. These conditions are most likely across southern, western, and northern PR. .Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly across the north and east facing beaches of PR. Isolated stronger rip currents may occur elsewhere, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon, with a limited to elevated risk of excessive rainfall, particularly over western Puerto Rico. Above-normal temperatures will lead to a limited to elevated risk of heat for most coastal areas by the end of the week. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist across most east and north exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is encouraged. Please relay any information about flooding, winds, waves, and rip currents to the National Weather Service in San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-280915- St. Thomas St. John adjacent Islands-St Croix- Nearshore Atlantic and adjacent Caribbean Coastal Waters- 507 AM AST Tue May 27 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of USVI. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight .Rip Currents...Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, particularly across most beaches of St. Croix. Isolated stronger rip currents may occur elsewhere, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents will persist across most east and north exposed beaches of St Croix. Above-normal temperatures will lead to a limited to elevated risk of heat for most coastal areas by the end of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
132 PM AST Tue May 27 2025
PRZ008>010-271900-
Northwest PR-Mayaguez and Vicinity PR-Western Interior PR-
132 PM AST Tue May 27 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MUNICIPALITIES OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH 300 PM AST...
At 131 PM AST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Sebastian and Anasco, moving northwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Aguadilla, Juncal, Aguada, Rincon, Moca, Las Marias, Mayaguez, La
Playa, Stella, Aceitunas, Hato Arriba, Caban, Anasco, Espino, Mora,
Lares, Maricao, San Sebastian, Luyando, and Rafael Hernandez.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 1832 6677 1816 6687 1818 6716 1821 6715
1822 6717 1828 6719 1830 6724 1836 6727
1841 6716 1844 6716 1849 6717 1851 6714
1851 6711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 115DEG 17KT 1829 6703
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ICPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Juan PR
345 PM AST Tue May 27 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 PM Landslide 4 S San Sebastian 18.28N 66.99W
05/27/2025 San Sebastian PR Public
The public reported through social media a
landslide on PR-119 in Barrio Guacio, near
the Communal Center, due to recent flooding
rains. Radar estimates indicated that around
2 to nearly 3 inches of rain had fallen. The
road was impassable.
&&
YZRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The 911 call center reported flooding on PR-102 in Barrio Pueblo, near the Almacen Navide o. One female was trapped in a car.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1268971.