A trough passing over the region, a nearby dryline, and upslope surface flow allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Large hail was reported in Brewster County in/near the higher elevation.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A trough passing over the region, a nearby dryline, and upslope surface flow allowed for the development of scattered thunderstorms across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Large hail was reported in Brewster County in/near the higher elevation. Some strong winds were also measured that evening. High non-thunderstorm winds were also reported in the Guadalupe Mountains overnight as the trough/Pacific front moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 1:11 PM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 211 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - Thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, especially along and south of I-10. Some storms may become severe. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - Thunderstorm chances continue late this week and into the weekend. Highest chances will be for the mountains (20-50%). - Warming trend commences this weekend as humidity persists. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The short term continues to be active with severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Water Vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough located over the the coast of Baja California, putting southeast New Mexico and west Texas under quasi-zonal flow. This weak pattern aloft means that any storms that develop this afternoon should primarily be due to mesoscale forcing as large scale ascent is lacking. Current surface analysis depicts a cold front draped along the Trans Pecos region and it is expected to retreat back north as a warm front this afternoon. Simultaneously, a dryline is expected to set up just to the east of the Guadalupe Mountains and extend southward through the Trans Pecos and Big Bend this afternoon. Easterly upslope flow moving up against the dryline should force air upwards in the moist sector this afternoon, allowing for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance shows storms forming along the Davis Mountains around mid-afternoon as discrete cells before becoming more of a MCS by early evening as shortwave impulses ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough move overhead along with an increased LLJ. Very large hail is the primary hazard expected with these storms during the afternoon, especially south of I-10. Strong winds become the main hazard during the early evening hours with large inverted-V soundings. Though tornadoes are unlikely, we can not rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado during the afternoon. The LLJ will be short lived tonight and storms should move east of the area after midnight. Cloudy skies and plentiful boundary layer moisture will allow tonight's lows to stay around normal for most despite a cold front moving through the area. Wednesday looks to be another active day for severe weather as southerly return flow and shortwave impulses ahead of the aforementioned trough return. The greatest instability and shear will be confined to the southern half of the forecast area, which is consistent with where models show the bulk of the activity. High temperatures are forecast to be 3-5 degrees cooler than today behind the cold front. Storms should quickly taper off by early evening. Lack of radiational cooling due to cloud cover and abundant boundary layer moisture allows for Wednesday night's lows to be a few degrees warmer than tonight's. Greening && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Our unsettled weather pattern continues into the Long Term Period. Flow aloft becomes more northwesterly towards the end of the week as ridging builds to the west. Pulses within the upper-level flow, coupled with the dryline set up in southeast New Mexico (which will become more diffuse, especially by Friday), continued advection of moisture into the region, and upslope flow/terrain influences allow for additional thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday. The best forcing (and therefore higher chances - 30-50%) will be in the Davis Mountains, while the rest of the area will have a 15-40% chance of seeing isolated to scattered rain and storms (with lower chances Friday relative to Thursday). Once again, a few storms may become severe due to MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest 0-6km shear (25-35 kts), posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Some additional storms may attempt to develop over the weekend (mainly in/around the terrain, where 20-50% chances exist), but by then ridging begins to build back towards the region. As a result, a warming trend develops such that most of the area sees highs return to the 90s (and low 100s along the Rio Grande). Winds remain southeasterly, meaning dewpoints in the 50s and 60s stick around through the weekend as well. By early next week, ensembles indicate another shortwave trough will approach, kick the ridge further to the east, and bring some more storm chances to the region as the dryline once again begins to sharpen up. Stay tuned for updates! Sprang && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but have left out of most sites due to uncertainty. However, have included PROB30 for FST as Fort Stockton has the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast throughout most of this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 86 66 86 / 40 30 10 10 Carlsbad 61 89 63 90 / 30 20 10 20 Dryden 65 87 69 89 / 60 30 20 10 Fort Stockton 63 87 67 92 / 60 40 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 58 83 63 84 / 20 20 10 20 Hobbs 58 84 61 85 / 50 20 10 20 Marfa 56 84 58 87 / 40 40 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 63 85 68 88 / 40 30 10 10 Odessa 62 84 67 87 / 40 30 10 10 Wink 63 89 67 91 / 40 20 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...55
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 hail, 2 high wind, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A report was received from the public of golf ball-size hail in the Chisos Basin.
A storm chaser reported half dollar-size hail on US 90 west of Marathon. The time of occurrence was estimated by radar.
The West Texas Mesonet station at 5S 5SW St. Lawrence recorded a 65 mph wind gust, along with a few other gusts around 60 mph.
The Mesonet station GDBT2 The Bowl measured a 64 mph wind gust (and a 62 mph wind gust an hour before as well).
The Pine Springs GMNP West Texas Mesonet station reported a 62 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1257569, 1257570, 1257571, 1257573, 1257572.