A deepening area of low pressure stationed across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes allowed for a tightening pressure gradient with an associated cold frontal passage west-to-east across central Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening hours of November 5, 2025. Sufficient moisture and lift ahead of the cold frontal passage allowed for a convective line of gusty showers during the…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A deepening area of low pressure stationed across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes allowed for a tightening pressure gradient with an associated cold frontal passage west-to-east across central Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening hours of November 5, 2025. Sufficient moisture and lift ahead of the cold frontal passage allowed for a convective line of gusty showers during the afternoon hours, with severe winds observed at Clearfield Lawrence Airport. The cold frontal passage across central Pennsylvania came later in the evening, with another severe gust observed at Clearfield Lawrence Airport with isolated instances of tree damage observed across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A severe wind gust was also observed at Harrisburg International Airport as the line of showers moved through the region. Gusty winds continued after the cold frontal passage, which caused isolated wind damage in Dauphin County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 5, 5:50 PM EST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 550 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Windy through tonight with strong gusty rain showers this evening; lake effect showers late tonight taper off Thursday * Breezy with periods of rain/showers Friday afternoon through Friday night; break in the precip to start the weekend * Coldest air of the season arrives Sunday night through Veteran's Day with increasing odds for snow accumulation downwind of Lake Erie and over the Laurel Highlands && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Late afternoon update. Main change was to up chc of thunder for the next few hours across a small area around Clearfield County, based on radar and cell movement. I did not go very far to the southeast, as the activity is borderline in the first place and should weaken as it moves eastward. Earlier discussion below. Very mild afternoon in progress across CPA with 18Z/1PM temps 55-70F or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for early November. Gusty west-southwest winds will continue to ramp up into the evening as a sharp cold front pushes to the southeast across Lake Erie. RH trends have reversed for the most part marking the bottom for dewpoint and minRH; see fire weather section for more info. Hires models show rain showers developing downwind of Lake Erie by 21Z and expanding to the southeast through 03Z. Precip should fizzle out as it rolls downslope off the higher terrain due to combo of downsloping and encounter with very dry air in the low levels. Upslope component will maintain showers over the western and northern Alleghenies where some snow could mix with rain into early Thursday morning (no accumulation is expected). Concerning the shower bands along the cold front: despite a very limited thermodynamic setup, strong large-scale forcing for ascent will act to augment the development of shallow convection later today through this evening. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly flow within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will support a risk for downward momentum transport for a few strong, potentially damaging wind gusts (55-65 mph) during the afternoon and evening. (SPC MRGL risk outlook) Wind advisory continues through tonight for all of CPA; tight gradient, very strong low level flow and 3hr post frontal pressure rises of +3-6mb (isallobaric contribution) btwn 00-06Z support widespread wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range. Pattern recognition along with wind 850mb wind anomaly magnitudes and favorable pressure rise/downsloping westerly flow would suggest that there is some risk of peak gusts reaching high wind warning (HWW) criteria across parts/lee of the Laurel Highlands into the south central Alleghenies. In other words, while overall confidence is not high enough to issue a HWW (better than 50/50 but <80%), if a gust to 60 mph where to occur it would probably be in the above mentioned area. Either way, widespread 45 to 55 mph wind gusts will impact the area mainly later this evening through the first part of tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Breezy start Thursday with lake cloud bands and lingering showers continuing over the NW Alleghenies into Thursday afternoon. High pressure ridge sliding eastward from the OH Valley will lower inversion heights and back the cross lake wind trajectory to the WSW by Thursday evening - spelling an end to the shower across the NW mtns. Brief period of dry wx Thu night as the sfc high slides to the south of CPA followed by a steady increase in mid and high clouds streaming in through Friday morning. Breezy conditions return by Friday afternoon within tight gradient associated with low pressure and trailing cold front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Model consensus shows frontal showers expanding west to east accompanying the cold front through CPA Friday afternoon through Friday night. Max temps trend noticeably colder on Thursday (10-15 degrees lower vs. Wednesday) before bouncing back on Friday thanks to a milder and gusty wind from the south/southwest. Friday night looks rather mild for this time of year (thanks to plenty of clouds and a continued southwest breeze) with lows in the 40-50F range or +10-20 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... *First cold snap and taste of winter conditions Sunday through early next week Spotty rain showers should come to an end in most places on Saturday with another quick break in the recurrent precip pattern into Saturday night. Look for partly to mostly cloudy conditions and not a bad start the weekend overall (especially relative to what is in store for early next week) with above avg max temps in the 50-65F range. Another dynamic low pressure wave and potent cold front will bring yet another period of breezy to windy conditions and round of gusty rain showers on Sunday. A major shift the pattern will be underway by late in the weekend and deliver the coldest air so far this season early next week through Veteran's Day. Deep troughing will be carved out over the Eastern U.S. resulting in a very favorable NW flow setup for the first widespread lake effect and orographically enhanced snow accumulation. Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees below the historical average Mon-Tue with wind chills in the teens and 20s. The cold December-like air does not last long and is forecast to retreat by the middle of next week with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A system of low pressure drifting across the Great Lakes today and tonight will bring a period of gusty winds to the region. Sustained southwest winds 15 to 25 mph will gusts to 40 mph this afternoon ahead of a cold front. A line or two of showers or thundershowers associated with the cold front late this afternoon into the evening may produce stronger wind gusts up to 60 mph at KBFD. The cold front moves into the northwest (BFD) by 22z Wed to 00z Thu and well southeast of the area by sunrise on Thursday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible behind the cold front in W to NW flow. MVFR ceilings and lingering showers are expected at KBFD into tonight and brief restrictions are also possible at KJST. There remains some uncertainty as to the duration of MVFR ceilings at KBFD tonight into Thursday. Periodic restrictions from -SHRA are expected as lake effect showers drift southeast from Lake Erie, but models still disagree about the duration of MVFR ceilings. Best case scenario, VFR ceilings will prevail from midnight onward. In the most pessimistic case, MVFR ceilings will be the predominant feature through midday Thursday. Have opted to split the difference with this TAF package, prevailing VFR by daybreak/12Z/7AM at KBFD. Winds will gradually taper off during the day on Thursday in a typical northwest flow pattern. High pressure support calm winds and VFR conditions by Thursday evening. Outlook... Thu...MVFR cigs/showers giving way to VFR by Thursday night. Fri...Windy FROPA with MVFR/showers likely west to east Friday afternoon through Friday night. Sat...MVFR/showers lingering NW early. Becoming breezy/LLWS late. Sun...Windy FROPA, MVFR/showers changing from rain to snow or mix by Sunday night over the western and central terminals. Mon...Blustery and cold, MVFR/IFR ceilings at KJST and KBFD in lake effect/upslope snow. Restrictions possible at other airfields if clouds/snow penetrate farther southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... After taking a dive this morning, dewpoints/RH have leveled off and are starting to climb this afternoon as low level moisture is advected into CPA. This trend agrees with the latest LCL-LFC mean RH fire wx parameter which is now maximized to the south of the PA/MD line. SPS for elevated risk of wildfire spread due to windy conditions and low humidity continues for the cetnral ridge/valley region through the mid and lower Susquehanna Valley until 8PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Martin SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Banghoff/Colbert FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1056 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-061600- Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1056 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004-005-024-033-061600- Warren-McKean-Cambria-Somerset- 1056 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. The first plowable snow accumulation of the season is possible Sunday through early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MRS
The State College radar (KCCX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:54 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked down a tree onto wires in Dubois.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts measured at 64 mph, occurred at Clearfield-Lawrence Airport in Clearfield.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked down multiple trees across southern Dauphin County, with a tree knocked down onto a residence on Deodate Road in Londonderry Township, trapping one person on the second floor. There were no injuries reported.
A severe thunderstorm, with measured wind gusts of 62 mph, was observed at Harrisburg International Airport.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked down multiple trees into residences in Derry Township. Multiple homes in the vicinity were evacuated due to a tree uprooting and causing a gas leak in the area.
Strong winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage knocked down a tree into the roof of a residence. There were no injuries reported.
A severe thunderstorm, producing wind gusts estimated near 60 mph, knocked a tree down that fell into the garage of a residence where it landed on the car of the resident southwest of East Petersburg. No injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1298117, 1298119, 1298120, 1298121, 1299827, 1298126, 1299828.