A cold front across northwestern Pennsylvania allowed for severe thunderstorms to form during the early morning hours across northwestern Pennsylvania, briefly producing quarter-sized hail before moving northeastward into New York. Thunderstorms associated with a cold front across Ohio and western Pennsylvania continued progressing further eastward, becoming more separated from the surface cold…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A cold front across northwestern Pennsylvania allowed for severe thunderstorms to form during the early morning hours across northwestern Pennsylvania, briefly producing quarter-sized hail before moving northeastward into New York. Thunderstorms associated with a cold front across Ohio and western Pennsylvania continued progressing further eastward, becoming more separated from the surface cold front as they progressed into central Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours of May 16, 2025. Enhanced destabilization across central Pennsylvania with ample shear in place allowed for thunderstorms to continue to maintain themselves as they continued into the afternoon/evening hours, with isolated supercells causing damage across the south-central mountains and across the southern tier during the evening hours. Steep lapse rates also allowed for supercells to produce large hail, with half-dollar sized hail in McAlevys Fort. Locally heavy rain from thunderstorms, coupled with saturated soils allowed for isolated instances of flooding to occur across Potter and Schuylkill counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 3:45 AM EST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 445 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Periods of rain and thunderstorms through Saturday with some potential for localized damaging winds and flooding downpours * Temperatures trend warmer Friday and Saturday with a notable uptick in humidity to end the week * Breezy, cooler, and much drier (less humid) end to the weekend with rain-free conditions into early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pockets of locally dense fog and low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous through sunrise across the central and eastern portion of the forecast area. Will be considering SPS/DFA based on latest ASOS/RWIS visibility trends. Overnight convection/MCS has been confined largely to the Lake Erie vicinity. Although the intensity varies from model to model, the latest hires guidance is in agreement with convection expanding to the southeast across the Allegheny Front through 12Z/8AM and eventually shifting eastward across central PA through midday. We are monitoring storm clusters tracking southeast from near Erie, PA. Brief gusty winds and small hail may be possible for the next hour or so with this cell as it continues to move southeast toward Warren County. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this morning along/ahead of the MCS, but the overall environment should remain unsupportive of an organized severe threat. Therefore, a watch is not anticipated per recent SPC MCD #804. A Flood watch remains in effect for Somerset and Bedford counties, although confidence in heavy rain potential has been steadily decreasing early this morning based on short term model and radar trends. In the wake of the AM convection, the afternoon t-storm setup looks more nebulous given the absence of a strong forcing mechanism. There will be plenty of instability available (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) with cloud breaks yielding strong sfc heating within a very moist (mid- summerlike) boundary layer comprised of Td in the 65-70F range over south central PA. The lack of deep layer shear suggests the primary threat this afternoon could be isolated downburst wind gusts/hail or drenching downpours which could result in localized flooding -- particularly in areas that have been hit the hardest over the last few days. Max temps will be +7-15 degrees above mid May climo with highs in the 75-85F range. While the D1 SLGT risk outlook area covering south central PA does capture the best (albeit isolated) strong/severe storm potential prior to 00Z/8PM, one has to think that it may be drawn with eye toward downstream evolution of projected bowing segment tracking eastward from the Ohio Valley late tonight into the predawn hours Saturday (00-12Z Saturday window). This area appears to be on the far northern periphery of whatever linear feature emerges based on recent HRRR/RRFS model runs. Therefore, the precip fcst for tonight is highly uncertain. Lows tonight in the 55-65F range will be very mild at +15-20F above the historical average. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will traverse the CWA by Saturday evening and likely be accompanied by scattered showers and few t-storms. The best svr potential will be ahead of the front over the eastern 1/4 of the forecast area where the HREF shows best instability collocated with more favorable 0-6km shear profiles. SPC expanded the SLGT risk farther to the north with the initial D2 outlook, however there remains some questions around the quality of the much weaker buoyancy vs. Friday. The strong shear could offset that to some extent, and cooling temps aloft could help in increasing the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts. A cooler, cyclonic/NW flow pattern persists for the remainder of the weekend. Sunday looks rather breezy with frequent 25-35 mph wind gusts. Max temps cool down by ~10 degrees across the board day over day with fcst highs in the 60-75F range. There may even be some lingering or diurnal showers Sunday PM especially in the northern tier beneath the pocket of coldest temps aloft. NW breeze should gradually weaken Sunday night with lows in the 45-55F range or within a few degrees of climo. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry conditions continue into the beginning of the long-term period as an upper-level ridge supplies fair conditions through Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture on Tuesday leads to a notable uptick in cloud cover for the second half of the day for most, especially across the Laurel Highlands as the next system pulls closer to the region. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are expected to trend slightly below seasonal averages, especially during the daytime hours. Model guidance promotes two different solutions for the area of low pressure approaching central Pennsylvania in the late Tuesday/early Wednesday timeframe. ECMWF/GDPS guidance tend to keep the approaching area of low-pressure west of the area for quite longer and does keep highest chances for precipitation until Wednesday afternoon/evening. Recent GFS/UKMET guidance outline a solution where the surface low-pressure dive further south and station over MD by Wednesday morning, allowing for precipitation chances to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the area. Given some model differences, have stuck close to NBM guidance while also trimming back timing on precipitation slightly due to some low-level drier air in place. After precipitation onset, generally expect showers to continue through the end of the long-term period given favorable moisture and lift associated with the area of low- pressure. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fog and lowered cigs starting to affect multiple TAF sites as temperatures cool over moist ground/lower levels. Once formed expect conds to persist much of the overnight. Next concern for overnight will be a line of thunderstorms that are expected to move through the region in the 09-14Z timeframe. PROB30 groups have been added to all sites except MDT and LNS to highlight the most likely timeframe for impacts. These thunderstorms will likely be weakening as they move in from the west and encounter a more stable environment, but we can't rule out a few strong wind gusts, especially at western airfields. Conditions gradually improve during the late morning Friday behind the line of storms, but additional thunderstorms will likely develop Friday afternoon/evening. Outlook... Sat...Showers/storms especially in the afternoon. West winds gusting 30-35 kts. Sun...Some improvement, as a series of cold fronts move southeast of the area. Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Tue...VFR with scattered showers across the west late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A flood watch is in effect form late tonight through Friday morning for Somerset and Bedford counties. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Beaty AVIATION...Bauco/Gartner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 PAZ004-005-010-011-170715- Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron- 314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and hail is possible this morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ017>019-024>028-035-036-049-050-052-056>059-063>066-170715- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Northumberland-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Pockets of locally dense fog and low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous through sunrise. Thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail are possible this morning. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours may develop this afternoon. A broader wind damage threat associated with a bowing line of storms moving east from the Ohio Valley could evolve late tonight into early Saturday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Saturday afternoon especially to the east of Route 15. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ033-034-170715- Somerset-Bedford- 314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Pockets of locally dense fog and low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous through sunrise. Thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail are possible this morning. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours may develop this afternoon. A broader wind damage threat associated with a bowing line of storms moving east from the Ohio Valley could evolve late tonight into early Saturday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-051-053-170715- Potter-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia- 314 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Pockets of locally dense fog and low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous through sunrise. Thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail are possible this morning. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours may develop this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Saturday afternoon especially to the east of Route 15. Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday, mainly west of State College. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 121 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:19 UTC.
12 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and power lines down on Jackson Run Road near the intersection with Matthews Run Road, causing power outages.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail near Youngsville.
Rain of only 0.75 in an hour fell onto wet ground and led to reports of water across some roadways in the vicinity of Galeton and Germania.
One to one-and-a-half inches of rainfall in one hour caused ponding of water on Route 67 in front of the Fairlane Village Mall near Pottsville, with one car becoming stranded and resulting in a single lane closure.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down onto a roadway near Laurel Lane approximately 1 mile southeast of Bald Eagle.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and powerlines northwest of Warriors Mark.
A severe thunderstorm produced 1.25 inch hail approximately 2 miles west-southwest of Mcalevys Fort.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down onto wires in Lewistown.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees down onto powerlines approximately 5 miles south of Greencastle.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down across Baltimore Pike at the intersection with White Road.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail near New Bloomfield.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and powerlines down onto Jacobs Mills Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees down onto wires near Emigsville.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down numerous trees in Arch Rock.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down on to Steigerwalt Hollow Road in York.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and powerlines down onto Grim Hollow Road approximately 2 miles south-southeast of Red Lion.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and wires down onto a house on Kittatinny Street in Harrisburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1252408, 1252410, 1250777, 1250781, 1252423, 1252426, 1252428, 1252431, 1252434, 1252439, 1252441, 1252443, 1252448, 1252453, 1252456, 1252446, 1252458.