A warm front moving across central Pennsylvania during the morning hours of June 28, 2025 with a surface cold front stationed in the Great Lake region allowed for much of central Pennsylvania to reside in the warm sector during the early afternoon and evening hours. Increasing instability, shear, and moisture due to this residence time primed the atmosphere ahead of a prefrontal trough allowing…
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A warm front moving across central Pennsylvania during the morning hours of June 28, 2025 with a surface cold front stationed in the Great Lake region allowed for much of central Pennsylvania to reside in the warm sector during the early afternoon and evening hours. Increasing instability, shear, and moisture due to this residence time primed the atmosphere ahead of a prefrontal trough allowing for ample lift to produce showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania during the late morning hours quickly grew strong-to-severe, producing an isolated instance of tree damage in Elk County, continuing eastward and producing damage in southern Clinton and southern Lycoming counties. Scattered thunderstorms also began to form across southern Pennsylvania during the afternoon and evening hours with slow-moving, severe thunderstorms producing large hail, tree damage, and flash flooding across Lancaster County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 11:10 AM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1210 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with torrential downpours are possible this afternoon into the evening * Sunday will be the best day of the last weekend of June with lower humidity and rain-free/dry conditions * Stormy pattern resumes early next week with renewed risk of strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... * The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #471 for most of Central Pennsylvania until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the day across the watch area, ahead of an approaching cold front. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Previous Discussion Issued: 1046 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Mid morning visible satellite and observational trends show low clouds gradually eroding across the central and eastern portions of CPA. The stratus deck will persist the longest over the mid to lower Susquehanna Valley. Important update in the near term is a categorical SWO upgrade to SLGT risk from SPC along (50mi either side) of the US220/I99 corridor. Based on the 12Z discussion, the key driver behind the increased severe tstm risk level (from 1 to 2 out of 5) was more influence (forcing) from southern extent of weak mid level trough crossing southern Ontario. The trailing cold front/wind shift has not crossed Lake Erie as of 1430Z. Hires models all generally agree in storm development along/ahead of the weak cold front/wind shift or perhaps prefrontal/lee trough. The longevity of low clouds could offset diurnal heating and push back CI particularly across the southeast zones. The other potential limiting factor in play in terms of severe storm risk is the lack of deep layer vertical shear <30kts. If enough instability can be realized to produce steep low level lapse rates (with max temps projected to rebound 10-20 degrees vs. Friday) along with water loading from high PW airmass -- that pulse to multi-cell environment would be largely supportive of an isolated wind damage threat in the strongest cores/storms. Overall, we are not super bullish on the severe setup, but could easily see at least a couple of SVRs being issued. Last items is locally heavy rainfall: WPC has most of the area in a MRGL risk ERO. With high pwats 1.5-2 inches, a few very heavy/torrential downpours are likely. Storm motions are more progressive than yesterday, so any isolated flooding concerns would be in repeat heavy rain zones. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure building into CPA behind the front provides a dry period tonight through Sunday. Any clearing tonight could result in a foggy start to the day tomorrow. Sunday will see a return of sunshine, drying conditions, and warmer temperatures once high pressure is in control. High temps on Sunday will reach the low 80s across the northern tier of the commonwealth to the low 90s near south central PA along the Mason Dixon line. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The stormy and unsettled pattern resumes early next week with a shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes sending a quasi stationary/warm and cold front through the region Monday and Tuesday. For now, the signal is relatively weak for rainfall leading up to the 4th of July. However, another northern stream front will keep low POPs in the forecast for Independence Day. Whether or not we see precipitation for the 4th will be dependent on how quickly the upper level low lifts out of New England and gets replaced by building region over the central US. Temperatures by the middle of next week are progged to be just above to near climo. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Aside from an isolated shower early on this morning, looking at mainly low clouds over the region this morning. A cold front over the central Great Lakes will move across the region later this afternoon, and could linger into the early evening across the southeast (MDT, LNS). Overall looking at some potential for fog late tonight. Looking at dry weather on Sunday. The next cold front will in early next week. Some of the storms could be on the strong side again. Outlook... Sun...AM fog then VFR. Mon-Tue...Showers and t-storms with times of fog and low clouds overnight. Wed...AM fog then VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Tyburski LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen AVIATION...Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 PAZ004-291645- Warren- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ005-291645- McKean- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ006-010>012-037-041-042-046-051-053-291645- Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ059-064>066-291645- Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ033>036-057-058-063-291645- Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ017>019-024>028-045-049-050-052-056-291645- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Northumberland-Perry- 1233 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The State College radar (KCCX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:57 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 strong wind, 1 hail, 1 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked multiple trees down in Spring Creek Township.
A strong thunderstorm, producing winds estimated near 45 mph, knocked down a tree and wires on Price Hill Road, near Hopewell.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and power lines in Loganton.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked trees and wires down throughout Muncy Township.
A severe thunderstorm produced 1.25 inch hail approximately 1 mile northwest of Mountville.
Lightning struck a house near the intersection of Hahnstown Road and Glenwood Drive in Ephrata Township. No report of injuries.
A severe thunderstorm producing wind gusts estimated at 60 mph knocked a tree down onto Bean Hill Road approximately 2 miles east of Millersville.
Water and debris were washed across the roadway at Hagar Street and Emerald Avenue in Lancaster.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1261580, 1268113, 1261584, 1261585, 1261567, 1261570, 1261575, 1266689.