High Wind in Oregon, March 27, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
714 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...Updated the Aviation and Beach Hazards sections...

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAFs...The main impact from the first front in
the 'one-two punch' of systems is strong surface and low level
winds. Both fronts are expected to bring areas of low level wind
shear with south to southwest winds at 40 to 55 kt aloft now through
Thursday evening. Meantime, surface wind gusts may reach those
speeds in the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. But, gusts of
15 to 35 kt will be much more common.

The front is also bringing a mix of LIFR and IFR with rain to the
coast this evening. Meantime, conditions are mainly VFR inland with
a band of showers and thunderstorms from northern Jackson County
into eastern Douglas County and northward. The risk of thunderstorms
will continue for the next few hours, through around 03 or 04Z with
this band pushing slightly east and north, focused northwest and
north of Crater Lake.

Despite the VFR, there will be areas of mountain obscuration and
light to moderate rain overnight. Rain will be focused on Curry,
Josephine, and western Siskiyou counties. The second front will
reach the coast Thursday morning and move slowly inland through
Thursday night into Friday morning. It will bring a renewed increase
in winds, more intense and more widespread west side focused
precipitation with snow levels around 5000 feet msl. Ceilings will
be lower with a predominant mix of MVFR and VFR and widespread
mountain obscuration. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM Wednesday, March 26, 2025...

Strong gales will continue building tonight, and then conditions
rapidly and significantly worsen early Thursday with the next
front. Storm force winds are expected, with these south winds and
a building heavy long period west swell at 14-15 seconds building
very high and dangerous seas of 25 to 30 ft on Thursday. Peak seas
are expected Thursday afternoon into the early evening. Winds
begin to ease Thursday night, but seas will likely remain very
high and very steep into Friday, and high and steep into Saturday.

Another strong front is possible Sunday into Monday. This front
could move just south of the region which would limit the strength
of winds and height of the seas. Stay tuned as details become
clearer over the coming days. /DW/Hermansen

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 PM Wednesday, March 26, 2025...A long
period swell from the southwest (about 220 degrees) will hit the
Oregon coast on Thursday morning, resulting in large breaking
waves along the beaches. Surf heights will be around 28 to 33 feet
Thursday into Thursday evening. Surf will reach peak heights
Thursday afternoon. Surf heights will decrease later Thursday
night, but remain very high into Friday morning.

These extremely large breaking waves will create very hazardous
conditions along beaches and area shorelines. Waves will inundate
beaches and surge into normally dry areas. Infrastructure damage and
significant beach erosion can be expected. Beaches and coastlines
will become dangerous due to very large and life-threatening surf
conditions. Stay off of beaches, rocks, jetties, piers, and other
waterside infrastructure. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image is starting to show signs of
increasing instability with cumulus clouds in the process of
developing. This will only increase in coverage over time as
instability increases and dynamics become more favorable for
thunderstorm development. As of this writing, radar is now showing
anything, but that will change over time.

Most of the action will be along and west of the Cascades, however,
isolated storms are possible over portions of the east side.
thunderstorms that do develop are expected to be rater fast movers
due to strong steering winds aloft. This will also result in forward
momentum and the combination of the two will result in gusty winds,
with some that could be damaging over portions of central and
eastern Douglas County this afternoon into early this evening.

There's fairly good agreement the best chance for strong to possibly
severe storms will be north of our area, especially later in the
afternoon. However, we need to be on the watch for the chance for a
few severe storms in northern and northeastern Douglas County. We
will monitor this closely during the course of the day.

This evening, the threat for strong storms will move north of our
forecast area. However, a strong front will bring increasing
precipitation to the area, with most of the precipitation along and
west of the Cascades. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be
excessive tonight, but most will be centered along the coast,
coastal mountains and Cascades.

A colder air mass will begins to move into the area overnight
tonight with snow levels lowering between 4500 and 5000 feet by
early Thursday morning.

Moderate to strong winds are likely for the eastside, Shasta Valley,
and south end of the Rogue Valley into tonight. Guidance shows winds
in the Rogue Valley will remain elevated through tonight.

Thursday, a strong low will move just inside of 130W late Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon. This along with an Arcata to North
Bend pressure gradient close to 9.0 mb will likely bring strong
winds to the coast, from about Cape Blanco south with winds
strongest over exposed areas along highway 101 and headlands.

At the same time, 700 mb winds will remain strong between 60-70 kts
east of the Cascades, therefore moderate to strong winds will
continue there through the day Thursday. Also the Medford to Redding
gradient is expected to be just over 8.0 mb which will keep the
strong winds going in the Shasta Valley, and moderate to strong
winds in the Rogue Valley. Additionally, the flow should be aligned
enough for moderate winds in the Illinois Valley. Right now it does
not look like advisory criteria will be met, but we'll continue to
keep a close watch on this.

Precipitation Thursday should be mainly concentrated along the coast
and coastal mountains through the day Thursday and precipitation
will be moderate to heavy at times. Precipitation will spread
farther inland into Douglas, western and south Siskiyou County and
Cascades Thursday afternoon and lasting into Thursday night. Snow
levels Thursday night will be between 4000-4500 feet, and with
precipitation expected to be mainly concentrated in southwest Oregon
and western Siskiyou County, there could be snow over the higher
elevations on Sawyers Bar Road Thursday night into Friday evening.
So while this is a long duration event, 48 hour storm total snow
for the higher elevations on Sawyers Bar Road is expected to be 6-8
inches.

Winds will diminish late Thursday afternoon along the coast, Shasta,
and Rogue Valley. However, moderate to strong winds will continue
east of the Cascades into Thursday night.

The weather will begin to settle down some Friday, at least in
terms of the winds. Upper troughing will remain over the area with
scattered rain showers and mountain snow showers.

We'll catch a break in the action Saturday as the upper trough
shifts east and weak shortwave ridging builds into the area. This
will be short lived with another upper trough moving into the area
Sunday with upper trough to remain through early next week. The net
result will be a continued chance for rain and mountain snow
showers. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ021-022-030-
     031.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ026-029>031.

     High Surf Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ081-085.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 5 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

     Storm Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&