The strongest of a series of frontal systems stalled over southern Oregon on 03/16. It produced heavy rain that caused numerous rivers in southwest Oregon to flood.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The strongest of a series of frontal systems stalled over southern Oregon on 03/16. It produced heavy rain that caused numerous rivers in southwest Oregon to flood.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 3:49 PM PST, 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
449 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs...A front is bringing a band of moderate to
heavy precipitation over central and eastern portions of the area
this evening (from near the Cascades east) with showers moving into
the area behind this band. Strong, gusty winds will at Medford
(KMFR) and Klamath Falls will gradually lower early this evening
after 01Z. Areas further east in Lake and Modoc counties (including
Alturas), will continue to see strong winds through the evening.
Snow levels will lower on the backside of this band, with snow
expected to develop at Klamath Falls (KLMT) this evening. Scattered
showers filling in behind this band will increase late tonight and
Monday morning and may bring a period of rain and snow to areas west
of the Cascades, including Medford (KMFR) and Grants Pass areas.
Widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions are expected to
continue into Monday morning, then transition to VFR with local MVFR
Monday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025/
SYNOPSIS...A strong atmospheric river is currently impacting
southern Oregon and northern California. This atmospheric river
will end tonight and a front will push through bringing snow
levels down. Unsettled weather returns midweek.
Key Points:
*Significant flooding is occurring along the coast and in Douglas
and Josephine Counties due to the excess rainfall.
*Rain will continue through 5 pm tonight for these areas, and 7 pm
for areas west of the Cascades. The front coming through again at
9 pm will bring new rain, but much lower rates to these areas
with lowering snow levels.
*Snow levels will lower to around 2000 feet by Monday morning and
could rise to around 3000 feet during the day with ongoing
showers.
*Heavy snow is still occurring in the southern Oregon Cascades
today and will continue this evening.
DISCUSSION...First and foremost, make sure you are taking
precautions to stay safe, and do not cross flooded roadways. This
system has been providing more twists than an M. Night Shyamalan
movie as precipitation has come in heavier than previously
thought. The biggest twist at this point is that the heavy
precipitation is causing snow levels to lower to valley floors at
Roseburg, Sutherlin, and Camas Mountain. Other areas where the
rain has been moderate has been rain.
At some point, the HRRR is showing a dry slot to create a break in
the rain, generally around 5 pm for the coast and the Umpqua in
Douglas County, and then by 7 pm for most areas west of the
Cascades. After the dry slot, a front will push through the area
tonight from the northwest with much colder weather, and snow
levels will drop from 5000 ft to around 2000 ft. At this point, we
may have some valley floor snow (20% chance), but accumulating
valley floor snow remains unlikely (10% or less).
Snow showers will continue through Monday with snow levels rising
to around 3000 feet to the day before dropping again in the
evening when the showers taper off. Light showers will continue at
the coast and in the Umpqua much of Tuesday morning and should
finally end by Tuesday evening.
The next system makes its way to the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday, bringing light to moderate rain (much less than we're
seeing now)with snow levels fluctuating between 3000 feet at
night and 4000 feet during the day. Winds may also be breezy in
their usual spots, like the Shasta Valley.
The unsettled weather will likely continue through the end of the
week with additional systems moving through. Still, none of these
systems appear to be as robust or wet as the one that is going
through our area now. Keep an eye to the forecast as things are
changing relatively rapidly. -Schaaf
MARINE...Updated 245 AM Saturday, March 16, 2025...Wind speeds are
expected to diminish this afternoon and turn to be from the west.
However, the very steep and hazardous seas will continue through the
early evening. Seas will gradually diminish, but will remain steep
through at least Monday afternoon. Active weather could return
midweek and bring further unsettled conditions starting Wednesday as
strong southerly winds build steep seas once again.
-Schaaf/Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for ORZ027>031.
Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021>026.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Monday for ORZ023-025.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ029-030.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for CAZ080-082-083.
Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081-084-
085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Monday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
235 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM Rain 2 SSW Obrien 42.05N 123.71W
03/16/2025 M3.75 Inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
Rain total since midnight. It reached 3
inches at 11:30 AM. Reports ponding of water
on roads near her house.
&&
BSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rogue River at Eagle Point rose above minor flood stage of 10.0 ft. at 16/1635 PST, peaked in minor flood stage at 16/1755 PST at 10.29 ft. It then fell below flood stage at 16/1905 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1283607.