A strengthening upper-level low and an associated strong low pressure system at the surface tracked just off the Pacific Northwest coast leading to a period of high winds. Warmer temperatures, additional rainfall and prior snowfall to this event facilitated localized flooding as well.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A strengthening upper-level low and an associated strong low pressure system at the surface tracked just off the Pacific Northwest coast leading to a period of high winds. Warmer temperatures, additional rainfall and prior snowfall to this event facilitated localized flooding as well. The frontal passage during the early afternoon hours of Feb 24th allowed for a period of isolated severe thunderstorms later that afternoon due to a low CAPE but high shear environment.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 23, 10:09 AM PST, 4 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1009 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025
Updated short term, aviation, and hydrology discussions.
.SYNOPSIS...Active weather continues through Monday night as a
moderate to strong atmospheric river and multiple frontal
systems bring moderate to heavy rain and periods of strong winds
to the area today and Monday. Greatest flood concerns for
coastal rivers, with ponding of water and rises of creeks and
streams as the main concern inland. Quieter weather expected
during the middle to later part of the coming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday Night...Steady rain is
ongoing across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as a
moderate to strong atmospheric river remains focused on the
Pacific Northwest. Overnight, rainfall were rather modest
with most locations seeing no more than a tenth of an inch or
so per hour. Parts of the Oregon Coast Range have approached a
quarter inch per hour at times. Event totals so far range from
1.5-3.0" along the coast and coastal terrain, to 0.5-1.0" in
the interior valleys, and 1.0-1.5" in the Cascades. Still
expect the heaviest rainfall to develop early this afternoon
as precipitable water values remain above 1" while IVT values
max out in the 500-750 kg/m/s range along the Oregon Coast.
Based on satellite imagery, the atmospheric contains around 220%
of normal precipitation, and precipitable water of near 1.25".
Rainfall rates will be aided by forcing from a shortwave trough
embedded in southwest flow aloft, along with the next
associated surface frontal boundary moving into the area this
afternoon. In regards to amounts, QPF forecast has increased
for today slightly from previous forecast packages, with coastal
areas and the higher terrain expected to see another 1.25-2.50"
of rain through this evening while the interior lowlands pick
up an additional 0.75-1.25". A few orographically favored spots
in the Coast Range and Cascades could pick up as much as
3.0-3.5" through this evening. The atmospheric river appears to
be tracking a little further south so forecast rainfall amounts
have come down a bit along the south Washington Coast today.
This trend could lead to some adjustments in the forecast for
rivers in southwest Washington.
Precipitation will taper off fairly rapidly later this evening
as the frontal system departs the area. Expect a lull in
precipitation through tonight as transient shortwave ridging
moves overhead, though light rain may linger across Lane County
overnight as the axis of precipitation drops south into
southwest Oregon. Otherwise, much of the area has a shot to
remain dry late this evening through early Monday before the
final shot of moderate to heavy precipitation Monday into MOnday
night. Rain will quickly spread back into the area from the
south on Monday morning as low pressure system rapidly deepens
offshore, sending the last in the series of frontal systems
across the area. IVT values will increase back into the 250-500
kg/m/s range, supporting another 1-2 inches of rain for coastal
areas while areas east of the Coast Range see an additional
0.5-1.0" through early Tuesday morning. All told, expected QPF
today and Monday coupled with the rain that has already fallen
keeps event total rainfall amounts in line with previous
forecast amounts of 4-6" in coastal and higher terrain areas,
though some spots in the Coast Range will likely reach as high
as 7-8" through early Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the interior
lowlands remain on track for upwards of 2.5-3.0" and perhaps
slightly higher amounts in some locations. Refer to the
Hydrology section below for details regarding potential flood
impacts from this event.
Wind remains the other primary forecast concern as a pair of
seasonably strong frontal systems crosses the region today and
Monday. This the incoming system today, winds will respond
becoming similarly as strong as the winds that occurred
yesterday (Saturday). Widespread 40-50 mph gusts along the
coast and 25-35 mph gusts in the interior valleys. Could again
see some slightly stronger gusts on beaches and headlands this
afternoon, but do not expect gusts to reach 60 mph with this
system. The probability for stronger gusts as high as 45 mph
remains low in the interior valleys today as the NBM puts
chances at around 10% while higher resolution guidance is around
10-20%.
Monday's system still represents the best chance for stronger
winds to impact the area as a strong low pressure system passes
offshore of the Oregon and Washington Coasts Monday afternoon.
Models have displayed good run to run consistency in depicting
a surface low bottoming out around 980 mb as it tracks northeast
towards Vancouver Island by Monday evening, passing
approximately 60-100 nm off the north Oregon Coast late Monday
afternoon. This lends increasing confidence to the forecast,
which is reflected in increasing model probabilities for warning
level winds along the coast and advisory level winds inland. A
High Wind Watch remains in effect for the coast, Coast Range and
Willapa Hills Monday morning through early Tuesday morning,
with probabilities for 60+ mpg gusts sitting at 60-80% for the
immediate coast. Held off on upgrading to a warning at this time
as confidence in warning level winds remains a bit lower for
inland coastal communities and parts of the Coast Range.
Regardless, most of these areas can be expected to see
widespread gusts of at least 45-55 mph Monday into Monday
night. Meanwhile, opted to issue a Wind Advisory for the
Willamette Valley and Portland/Vancouver Metro Monday afternoon
through early Tuesday morning as NBM and hi-res model probs
depict a 40-70% chance for 45 mph gusts from Portland to Eugene
Monday and Monday night. Given saturated soils from ongoing
moderate to heavy rain, these winds will have the potential to
result in downed weakened or dead trees.
Heavier rain and stronger winds will come to an end by early
Tuesday as an upper level trough crosses the region Monday
night, with lighter rain showers possibly lingering across the
area into Tuesday afternoon. The trough will lower snow levels
back down to 3500-4000 feet Monday night into Tuesday morning,
and as such will bring accumulating snow back to the Cascade
passes. Snow amounts look likely to remain below advisory
criteria at this time, but NBM probabilities do show a 30-40%
chance for as much as 6 inches of accumulation through Santiam
and Willamette passes through late Tuesday morning. The forecast
for now calls for 2-5 inches of accumulation at pass level
Monday night into Tuesday. -Muessle/CB
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Ensemble guidance
continues to heavily favor a ridgier pattern mid to late week,
promoting a potentially warmer and drier pattern across the
region. Although the bulk of ensemble members do keep the area
dry Wed-Fri, the forecast maintains a chance of rain on Thursday
as some solutions depict a weak system moving through the top
of the ridge, but there is good agreement that any precipitation
amounts would remain light across the area. NBM continues to
depict high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s int he
interior valleys during the latter half of the week. Guidance
hints at another trough moving into the region next weekend, but
confidence remains low at this time. -CB
&&
.AVIATION...A frontal system pushing through today will lead to
LIFR/IFR CIGs along the coast and IFR/MVFR CIGs across the
Willamette Valley through 00-02z Mon. Periods of moderate to heavy
rain with this system may also lead to brief VIS reductions to
IFR/MVFR thresholds. After 00-02z Mon, rain will decrease and CIGs
should begin improving to MVFR/VFR along the coast and VFR
inland. Winds today with this system will be southerly to
southwesterly, with gusts to 30-40 kt along the coast and 20-25
kt inland. Note that there could be some brief speed shear along
the coast between 18-21z Mon. Expect winds to briefly ease
tonight before the next system arrives.
The next frontal system will arrive early Monday morning,
returning rain from south to north between 10-12z Mon. CIGs are
trending toward high-end MVFR/low-end VFR as this next system
approaches. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten, so expect
more easterly winds along the coast and Portland Metro Area after
09-12z Mon. Meanwhile, southerly winds will prevail in the central
and southern Willamette Valley. Similar to today, could also see
brief VIS reductions from moderate to heavy rain.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately MVFR CIGs and VIS through
00-02z Mon as a frontal system pushes through. After 00-02z Mon,
rain is forecast to decrease and CIGs/VIS should improve to VFR.
Expect southerly to southwesterly winds 10-15 kt with gusts to
20-25 kt through this afternoon. Winds ease below 10 kt after
03-06z Mon. Rain returns and winds shift more easterly after 12z
Mon. -Alviz
&&
.MARINE...UPDATE: Upgraded the Small Craft Advisory to a Gale
Warning for outer water zone PZZ271 through this evening as the
next frontal system pushes through and strengthens southerly
winds. The previous discussion continues below. -Alviz
Active weather will continue across the waters through at least
Tuesday. The first front is pushing through this afternoon,
bringing southerly winds with gusts to 40-45 kt. Gale Warnings
remain in effect through Sunday evening to cover the ongoing wind
threat. During this time, there will be around a 20% probability
for isolated gusts up to 55 kt for all zones but PZZ271, which
will have around a 20% probability for gusts up to 40 kt.
Sunday night into early Monday morning, winds across all marine
zones briefly weaken with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas also subside
through early Monday morning towards 11 to 14 feet at 13 seconds,
this will result in steep and choppy seas.
Monday to Tuesday, a strong low pressure system tracking roughly
parallel to the OR/WA coast as it moves northward towards
Vancouver Island is forecast to significantly increase southerly
winds and result in building seas. Starting around mid morning
Monday, southerly winds are forecast to increase to 35-45 kt
sustained with wind gusts up to 55 kt. Expect these winds to
persist through Monday night and ease sometime after early Tuesday
morning. Seas during this time will be very steep and choppy. In
addition to high wind waves, a dominant southwesterly swell will
also result in combined seas building above 20 feet by late
Monday morning and peaking Monday evening through early Tuesday
morning around 25-30 feet at 15 seconds. Seas are not forecast to
fall below 20 feet until late morning Tuesday. Will maintain the
current Storm Warning across all waters, including the Columbia
River Bar. This warning is in effect from Monday morning to
Tuesday morning.
In addition, confidence is high that high surf advisory criteria
will be met with breakers up to 35 ft. A High Surf Advisory has
been issued for this, which is discussed in more detail in the
beach hazards discussion below. -42/TK
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...There is high confidence for high surf
conditions at the coast from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM Tuesday, which
is when a High Surf Advisory is in effect. This is when large
waves and hazardous surf conditions are expected due to an
increasing west- southwesterly swell, peaking around 30 ft and
producing breakers up to 35 ft. Destructive waves may wash over
beaches, jetties, and other structures unexpectedly. People can
be swept off rocks and jetties and drown while observing high
surf. Minor beach erosion may damage coastal properties and
buildings. Higher than normal water run-up is expected on
beaches and low-lying shoreline.
In addition, cannot rule out minor tidal overflow flooding around
high tide on Tuesday, however confidence is low as the outcome
will be highly dependent on exact river levels and if they are
able to reach approximately 80% of flood flow or higher. This is
because the forecast total tide alone is not high enough to
suggest coastal flooding will occur, however background river
levels must also be considered in addition to the total tide
forecast when determining potential flood impacts. As of right
now, it appears we will be just shy of meeting criteria to issue a
Coastal Flood Advisory, but this could change with future forecast
updates if confidence increases. -TK/42
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Ongoing atmospheric river event will be enhanced
by additional systems crossing the region today and Monday,
bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain each day. Factoring
rain that has already fallen, forecast event total rainfall
amounts ending Tuesday morning remain on track for 5-6 inches
along the coast and in the adjacent higher terrain as well as
over the Cascades, with 2-3 inches likely in the interior
valleys. Amounts of 7-8 inches look increasingly likely in
orographically favored parts of the Oregon Coast Range as well
as the High Cascades. Generally expect another 1-2 inches of
rain along the coast and in the mountains both today and Monday,
and up to one inch for the interior lowlands each period.
Latest HREF and NBM guidance continues to indicate the potential
for hourly rain rates near 0.25-0.3 inches at times along the
Coast Range and Cascades.
This will certainly produce rises on area rivers. Expect to see the
largest responses by this evening on some of the flashier
rivers in the Coast Range and Willapa Hills, including the
Grays, Wilson, and Siletz Rivers. Meanwhile, several slower
responding rivers draining from the Coast Range are forecast to
reach action stage Monday into Tuesday. Additionally, a number
of rivers, streams, and creeks in the interior lowlands that
drain from either the Coast Range or the Cascades are now
expected to see rises into at least Action Stage with several
locations peaking at or just under minor flood stage. This
includes the Clackamas River near Estacada and at Willamette
Falls. Significant snow melt in the higher terrain will
contribute to the increase in river levels. This increase snow
melt along with the hourly rain rates will also enhance the
chance of landslides in the higher terrain.
The primary impacts in lowlands will likely be related to ponding of
water on roadways and poor drainage in low lying areas. Do not
currently expect any widespread debris flow or flash flooding
concerns as hourly rainfall rates look to max around around a
quarter to perhaps a half inch, and therefore should remain well
below thresholds on area burn scars through the duration of the
event.
A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area
through 4 AM PT Wednesday. Continue to monitor the forecast
closely as relatively minor changes in forecast rainfall amounts
could have significant implications on potential river and
areal flood concerns in the coming days. -CB/HEC
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for ORZ101>103-106-107.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for
ORZ101>103.
Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
ORZ109>118.
WA...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for WAZ201-203.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for
WAZ201.
Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ205-
206.
PZ...Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Monday
for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
Storm Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
&&
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National Weather Service Portland OR
239 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM Rain Gleneden Beach 44.88N 124.03W
02/23/2025 M1.86 Inch Lincoln OR Trained Spotter
&&
JLThe Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 198 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:59 UTC.
5 high wind, 4 flood, 2 strong wind, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Siuslaw River near Mapleton. Reached minor flood stage (18 ft) at 1500 PST on Feb 23rd, 2025. Peaked at 18.64 ft at 2215 PST on Feb 23rd. It fell below minor flood stage at 215 PST on Feb 24th.
The Luckiamute River near Suver reached minor flood (27ft) 2/24 415 PST. Peaked at 27.31 ft 2/24 at 10 AM. Fell below minor flood 2/26 415 PST.
An emergency manager called to report tree damage around the University of Oregon Campus with a new article indicating a few down trees and 1 injury as a result of the strong wind. The nearby ASOS KEUG measured a peak wind gust of 40 mph at 1510 Feb 24th.
The Rockhouse 1 RAWS measured a peak gust of 83 mph at 1212 02/25 PST, and was near or above 58 mph 1300 02/24 to 0300 02/25.
The Astoria-Megler Bridge ODT76 measured a peak gust of 76 mph 02/25 0106 PST, and was near or above 58 mph 1300 2/24 through 0700 2/25. Additionally the high winds caused a tree to strike a car carrying a family traveling near Seaside on U.S. 26 near milepost 8 - 3 people where injured, one seriously.
The Yaquina Bay Bridge measured a peak gust of 74 mph 1544 02/24 PST, and was near or above 58 mph 1430 02/24 to 0300 02/25.
The ASOS KTMK measured a peak gust of 62 mph 1955 02/24 PST, and was near or above 58 mph 1600 2/24 to 2200 2/24.
A large tree was knocked down near Halsey St and Owen Pl. Time estimated from Radar.
Two downed trees on the road near Thomas Rd and Soda Springs Rd.
Photo emailed to us showed hail approximately one inch in diameter at the intersection of HWY 213 and Thomas Rd. Time estimated from Radar.
Public report of a a tree which had fallen down onto a car on Redland Rd in Oregon City, injuring two occupants.
A mesonet station NMRPN NE Mountain Top Road: Peak gust 64 mph 0050 02/25, near or above 58 mph 2230 02/24 to 0200 02/25. K2PO Newberg: Peak gust 0058 02/25, near or above 58 mph 2200 02/24 to 0200 02/25.
Pudding River at Aurora. Reached minor flood (22 ft) 2/25 2300 PST. Peaked at 23.04 ft 2/26 at 1500. Fell below flood 2/28 midnight.
Pudding River at Aurora. Reached minor flood (22 ft) 2/25 2300 PST. Peaked at 23.04 ft 2/26 at 1500. Fell below flood 2/28 midnight.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1236395, 1236448, 1236404, 1236255, 1236372, 1236253, 1236375, 1236468, 1236470, 1236464, 1236480, 1236376, 1236455, 1236457.