Slow-moving thunderstorms developed across portions of northeastern Oklahoma during the morning of the 12th, along and ahead of a cold front that was slowly pushing into the area. Locally heavy rainfall resulted in some flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
Slow-moving thunderstorms developed across portions of northeastern Oklahoma during the morning of the 12th, along and ahead of a cold front that was slowly pushing into the area. Locally heavy rainfall resulted in some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 4:56 AM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 556 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through at least Monday, with potential for locally heavy rainfall. - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage towards sunrise across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a slow southeast drift to the precipitation expected during the morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and a flood watch remains in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma through 1 pm. The latest model data, including the various CAM's, are showing considerable variability in the location of showers and storms this afternoon, and where heavy rainfall may remain a concern. It is possible that the current flood watch may need to be extended in time, location, or both depending on how the situation evolves today. High temperatures today will remain below normal, ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A slow moving upper trough will remain over the area through at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through that time, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall from time to time. The heaviest rainfall may end up favoring the overnight and morning time frames, and additional flood watches may be needed during the coming days. Temperatures will remain well below normal into the first part of next week. Once the upper trough lifts out of the area, shower and storm coverage will diminish for the middle to latter part of next week, but not completely go away. Temperatures will also warm back to closer to the seasonal averages for the latter half of the week. A weak cold front may approach the area late in the week, but the latest data does cast some doubt on this as upper ridging becomes more dominant by that time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will will continue at times through the day. If CAM guidance is to be believed, the better chances of storms will be through about 15Z, and then again in the afternoon after 20Z. Most areas will see ceilings develop, but they should generally remain at or above 3 kft except in heavy showers today. Visibility could also briefly drop but will generally remain 3 SM or greater otherwise. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 kts, but may be gusty and erratic near storms. A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and severe weather potential. Ceilings and visibility will then drop Sunday morning with MVFR criteria or below. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 70 83 70 / 50 50 60 30 FSM 90 73 87 73 / 70 50 70 20 MLC 88 71 85 70 / 70 60 80 30 BVO 88 69 83 68 / 40 50 50 20 FYV 86 69 84 68 / 70 50 70 20 BYV 87 69 85 69 / 70 30 70 20 MKO 86 70 83 70 / 80 50 70 30 MIO 87 69 83 69 / 40 40 60 20 F10 86 69 82 70 / 80 60 80 30 HHW 91 72 88 71 / 50 60 60 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>064. AR...None. && SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...06
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 419 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131245- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 419 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Areawide. ONSET...Late Morning. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...Limited. AREA...Areawide. ONSET...Late Morning. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Areawide. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop near and north of I-40 this morning. Scattered storm activity will likely continue through the morning. Over time, the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather will increase. A few storms may produce damaging wind and large hail today, though most will not be severe. With high moisture content, some storms may produce very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect. Temperatures will not be as hot as yesterday. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY TO FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Daily storm chances will be present for the next week. Confidence is lower on exact timing and location of individual storms. Heavy rainfall will occur from time to time, with flash flooding possible. A few storms may become severe, particularly south of I-40 on Saturday, but overall the threat is low. Temperatures will remain mild considering the frequent storminess. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
ARZ001-010-121145-
Benton AR-Washington AR-
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...
At 613 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Springdale, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Springdale... Johnson...
Lowell... Elm Springs...
Goshen... Sonora...
Tontitown... Fayetteville...
Rogers...
This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 68 and 79.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3613 9427 3625 9429 3629 9402 3609 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 261DEG 18KT 3618 9413
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
OKZ066-121145-
Okmulgee OK-
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 AM CDT...
At 614 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Beggs, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Beggs...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3586 9603 3574 9603 3578 9619 3586 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1114Z 273DEG 8KT 3581 9613
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH<!doctype html>
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
OKZ066-121300-
Okmulgee OK-
727 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY
THROUGH 800 AM CDT...
At 727 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northeast of Preston, moving northeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Bald Hill... Preston...
Liberty... Hectorville...
Okmulgee...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3586 9600 3586 9581 3581 9577 3573 9577
3572 9575 3565 9595 3579 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 234DEG 5KT 3577 9594
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
731 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
OKZ067-068-070-121300-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
731 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...WEST
CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM
CDT...
At 731 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Okay, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Okay... Lost City...
Tullahassee... Hulbert...
Sequoyah State Park... Fort Gibson...
Muskogee...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3577 9545 3590 9545 3602 9505 3580 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 243DEG 23KT 3585 9530
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHThe Tulsa radar (KINX), 27 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:30 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of several roads were reported flooded.
Portions of several roads were reported flooded.
Portions of Bixby Road south of Hectorville Road were flooded and closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280829, 1280830, 1280269.