Winter Storm in Oklahoma, January 9 to 10, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 452 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Our much anticipated winter storm continues to take shape across W
TX early this morning, with areas of IP/-FZRA having developed
well ahead of the still closed low noted on the water vapor
imagery spinning over Srn Baja. Imagery also indicates a
significant Nrn stream trough and associated jet streak diving S
through the Cntrl and Srn Rockies which will absorb this low later
today as it begins to open up and slowly eject ENE through Nrn Old
MX towards the TX Big Bend Region. Satellite imagery already
reveals cirrus and low AC cigs continuing to spread E across the
region, with temps having already risen a cpl degrees over the
last cpl hours over E TX where cigs are denser. This trend should
eventually trend farther E later this morning aided with the
onset on insolation, but the increase in elevated isentropic
ascent should help to saturate the air column, eventually aided by
increased overrunning as low level cyclogenesis develops late
this morning/midday ahead of the approaching trough along the
Middle TX coast.

Thermal profiles continue to support a IP/-SN mix at the onset of
precip over much of E TX, with -SN farther N across closer to the
Red River into SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR in the deeper
subfreezing air. Sfc temps should be able to climb to near or
slightly above freezing by the time the precip arrives except
across the far NW zones, but evaporative cooling of the column
should help cool sfc temps closer to and below freezing by
afternoon as the column begins to saturate. Thus, some
accumulating sleet/snow will be possible as early as this
afternoon NW of the I-30 corridor, although temps farther E will
take more time to evaporatively cool (by mid to late afternoon) as
they approach the freezing mark. The short term progs have
trended a bit warmer with the thermal profiles later this
afternoon/tonight, suggesting a greater and deeper warm lyr that
could advect into Srn AR especially as the sfc low traverses the
far SE TX/Srn LA coasts. Thus, a faster transition from IP/-RA to
FZRA is now progged late this afternoon into this evening
especially along the LA/AR border into Srn AR/NE TX, thus tapering
back snowfall amounts over these areas and resulting in
potentially higher ice accums. Even some light ice accums are
possible across SE OK/adjacent sections of Wrn AR where previous
model runs suggested all snow, with snowfall amounts scaled back
slightly for this area except in the higher elevations of the
Ouachitas.

The million dollar question remains the position of the sfc freezing
line, with the HREF/HRRR seemingly a bit too warm in shifting this
line farther N towards the Red River into the Nrn sections of SW
AR. The NAM/last few runs of the GFS remain consistent with the
freezing line near or just N of the I-20 corridor of E TX into
extreme Nrn LA along the LA/AR border, although elevated warm
advection from the increased overrunning N of the low level low
should shift this line N overnight closer to I-30. Thus, what may
be a mix of RA/FZRA this evening may become all RA late this
evening/overnight SE of I-30, before the deeper cold wedge on the
backside of the NE ejecting sfc low begins to shift SE through E
TX/SW AR late.

Did not make any changes to the existing Winter Storm
Warnings/Advisories this morning, although some adjustments may be
needed later today especially along the Srn fringes especially
should temps remain just above freezing. But attm, it still
remains too close to call with where the freezing line will end up
once the column evaporatively cools. Did scale snowfall totals
back to 2-6" across NE TX/SW AR/SE OK, with isolated higher
amounts of 7-8+" possible across the higher terrain of Nrn
McCurtain County OK. Did increase ice accums (sleet/FZRA) up to a
third of an inch especially just below I-30 for the expected
deeper warm lyr intrusion, although this warm lyr will begin to
erode as the colder subfreezing column gradually deepens late on
the backside of the ejecting sfc low over SE LA. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over Deep E TX into NCntrl LA this
evening and overnight especially in the area of increased
overrunning along a 50-55kt Srly LLJ, enhanced by strong
convergence along the attendant H925-850 inverted trough that will
extend from Deep E TX across NCntrl LA, where widespread rainfall
amounts of 2-3" are expected.

Areas of -SN should gradually shift E along and N of the I-20
corridor Friday morning, although additional snowfall accums will
be very light (if at all) as sfc temps along the Srn flank of the
precip remains just above freezing. Much drier air entraining ENE
ahead of the strongly positive tilt trough will quickly taper the
precipitation from W to E Friday morning, exiting the Ern zones by
midday/early afternoon. However, extensive wrap-around low stratus
and NW winds on the backside of the sfc low as well as the
existing snow/icepack will result temperatures struggling to climb
through the afternoon. Have again undercut the NBM guidance for
max temps both today and Friday to account for the increased cloud
cover/evaporative cooling today and the snowpack/stratus Friday,
although some clearing of the low clouds may occur late Friday
night from the NW as the upper trough drifts E into the MS Valley
and Big Bend Region.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 452 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Although some clouds may linger over portions of the area Saturday
morning, better insolation should result in the start of a slow
warming trend, especially as Srly low level winds return to the
region. Dry conditions are expected through the entire extended
period as a mostly zonal flow aloft sets up over the Srn tier of
the CONUS by Monday. A weak cold front remains progged to slip SE
through the region Sunday afternoon and evening, reinforcing the
cold and dry air mass that will remain in place. Strong canadian
sfc ridging settling in place across the area by midweek will
maintain this air mass in place through week's end, while also
keeping the Gulf shut off as well.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

SCT/BKN mid and high clouds are advecting east across the
airspace this morning as the anticipated winter precip remains
just west of the local terminals. This too will continue east,
working into the airspace around or just after 15z, impacting
western terminals in ETX first, before moving closer to the I-49
terminals of TXK and SHV. Bottom line is given terminal temp
profiles, assortment of ptypes will blend across the terminals
this afternoon, into the evening and overnight into Friday AM.

Highest confidence for prolonged SNPL exists at TXK, ahead of
a brief RAPL period, citing the northward advecting warm nose
close to 00z. If this warm nose was to under perform, this would
likely keep TXK in prolonged SNPL period. To the south, and along
the I-20 terminals, what will start as RAPL, will transition
mostly to RA through the TAF period. A transition back to RAPL
across the ETX I-20 terminals, along with SHV, looks promising
between 10/09z-10/12z. Hi-res solutions were hinting at a period
of wrap-around SNPL along the aforementioned terminals, but
confidence was not high enough to include at this time. To be
expected, with the passing surface low, OVC ceilings will fall,
with many terminals at or below 1-2kft for extended periods.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 452 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

Spotter activation will be needed later today through tonight for
snow and ice reports and accumulations across Northeast Texas,
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northern
Louisiana. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  32  38  26 /  80 100  50   0
MLU  43  34  39  28 /  40 100  80   0
DEQ  33  29  35  15 /  90 100  60   0
TXK  37  31  37  19 /  90 100  50   0
ELD  39  29  36  22 /  60 100  80   0
TYR  35  32  36  24 / 100 100  20   0
GGG  36  32  37  23 / 100 100  30   0
LFK  39  33  40  27 / 100 100  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for LAZ001>004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for LAZ005-006-
     010>014.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for OKZ077.

TX...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for TXZ149>151.

&&

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...53