Thunderstorms developed across portions of eastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of the 1st, near a frontal boundary draped across the area, as an upper level disturbance approached from the northwest. Some of the thunderstorms moved repeatedly across the same areas, which resulted in locally heavy rainfall and some flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed across portions of eastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of the 1st, near a frontal boundary draped across the area, as an upper level disturbance approached from the northwest. Some of the thunderstorms moved repeatedly across the same areas, which resulted in locally heavy rainfall and some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 5:28 AM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 628 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Elevated frontal boundary remains over the region with 20-50% shower and thunderstorm chances through early this morning and 20-60% storm chances during the day today. - Additional shower and storm chances Sunday into Monday as one or more shortwaves affect the area. - Warming trend with temperatures near/above average by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A mid level vort max combined with an 850-700mb frontal boundary are expected to sag south/southeast over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Friday morning. At the same time, a few remnant surface outflow boundaries from Thursday evening's convection look to remain across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features along with marginal elevated instability will increase shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday morning. The greater potential is expected where the elevated frontal boundary sets up, generally between Interstate 44 and Interstate 40 through 12z Friday and then extend south of I-40 through late morning Friday. Marginal instability and weak flow aloft will limit strong/severe potentials. However, deeper moisture pooling along and ahead of the elevated boundary will aid in precipitable water values around and in excess of 2 inches through the morning hours. Thus, the primary threat into Friday morning will be heavy rainfall which could create localized flash flooding potentials. Friday afternoon and evening the vort max and elevated frontal boundary are progged to continue its southeastward track across the CWA with the greater storm potentials generally south of I-40. Lesser chances remain forecast northward up toward I-44 through the afternoon hours. With the southward push of the boundary, the deeper moisture plume is expected to move southward as well, putting the heavy rain threat into southeast Oklahoma. Cooler conditions that moved into the CWA Thursday spread over the CWA Friday, which along with precip chances and cloud cover from the features mentioned above moving through, high temperatures in the 80s are forecast Friday. Overnight Friday night, the remnants of the vort max and a weakening elevated frontal boundary should finally push south/southeast of the CWA by Saturday morning. Will hold onto low precip chances across southeast Oklahoma Friday night with the thought that precip should taper off and exit Saturday morning. The moisture plume should also push south of the CWA Friday night with light QPF forecast Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The ridge of high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest through the weekend which will allow for upper level northwesterly flow to be common over the CWA. A couple shortwaves remain forecast to move through the region Sunday into Monday within this upper level flow, and look to bring low shower/storm chances to the CWA. At this time the greater potential is Sunday night with the main shortwave moving through the Central/Southern Plains. Organized severe weather is not currently anticipated. Also while the ridge remains out west, cooler conditions and easterly surface winds helping to transport slightly drier air into the region are forecast through the weekend. High temps Saturday through Monday look to remain in the 80s for most locations with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 deg each afternoon. This cool down looks to be short-lived as latest model solutions try to expand the ridge of high pressure back into the Southern Plains by the middle part of next week. This will return temperatures back to near/slightly above the seasonal average for early August. However, looking at the tail end of the forecast period, there is a signal for the ridge to quickly push back west with another frontal boundary trying to move southeast through the Plains next weekend. Will just have to wait and see how things progress. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Showers and storms will continue to potentially impact KTUL, KRVS, and KMLC for the first few hours of the forecast period, with afternoon redevelopment possibly impacting KMLC and KFSM. Most places except KBVO will see a period of MVFR ceilings this morning before improving to VFR by this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 68 87 68 / 60 0 0 0 FSM 87 70 88 68 / 50 10 10 0 MLC 86 70 87 68 / 60 20 20 0 BVO 85 63 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 84 63 85 61 / 50 10 0 0 BYV 84 63 84 61 / 30 0 0 0 MKO 84 68 87 67 / 60 10 0 0 MIO 85 64 85 63 / 10 0 0 0 F10 84 68 86 67 / 70 10 10 0 HHW 87 71 86 69 / 50 40 30 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 512 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 512 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Limited. AREA...Near and Southeast of Interstate 44. ONSET...Ongoing. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Near and Southeast of Interstate 44. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Scattered thunderstorms will continue into this morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma and possibly extending into northwest Arkansas. The showers and storms will mainly remain near and southeast of the Interstate 44 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms. A few thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. While no organized severe weather is expected, a couple strong storms will be possible with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. SATURDAY...No Hazards. SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards. THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and storms will return late Sunday into early Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Hot weather will return later next week, with heat index values back over the century mark. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 33 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:26 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of several roads in Tulsa were reported flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280281.