What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 12:52 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 12:52 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
152 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
One last hot and humid day on tap with widespread showers and
thunderstorms developing through this evening. A few strong to
severe storms, as well as isolated flash flooding, will be possible
with today's diurnal activity. Cold air damming develops this
weekend and lingers into the new workweek bringing much needed
relief from the heat and humidity in the form of cooler and below
normal high temperatures. Shower and thunderstorm chances stick
around through next week but a lull may develop Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 pm Friday: The last of the remnant low cloudiness was
finally exiting the fcst area, while convective initiation has
taken place over the ridges as expected. The development has been
gradual as has been our destabilization, but we're on our way with
sfc-based CAPE up into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. The dCAPE has been
modest at best, but water vapor imagery has a pocket of somewhat
drier air east of the mtns, so the expectation remains that it would
be sufficient to support some stronger downdrafts and outflows. The
wind shift boundary was already sinking south across the Upstate and
northeast Georgia, but the effective front was still located to the
north of the forecast area. No significant changes are noted with
the Day 1 Convective Outlook update keeping most of the fcst area
in a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts. The 12Z HREF and the
morning runs of the HRRR continue to support the idea that we will
have just enough shear to promote some multicell organization on
cold pool mergers and outflows. If we can get the storms organized
as they move east off the Blue Ridge as is hinted by the HREF,
our chances of severe wind gusts will go up. There's also the
risk of excessive rainfall that extends into the evening hours,
what with very deep warm cloud potential and precipitable water
well over two inches. The concern will be anchoring of storms
near the Blue Ridge Escarpment because of easterly low level
flow opposing the westerly mid/upper flow, or multiple rounds of
storms over the same area. A Flood Watch has been contemplated,
but the expectation at this moment is for only isolated/localized
threats. Oh yeah, and today will be the last hot day. No changes
to the Heat Advisory over the Lakelands.
The effective cold front should drop southward across the forecast
area late this evening behind the main deep convection, and in
behind, the low level northeasterly flow will improve. There should
be enough moisture left over to be run upslope on the east side of
the mtns to force additional showers well into the overnight near
the Escarpment in NC, as the effective front oozes S and SW across
the Upstate into northeast GA. That should keep rain chances in
play for most of the region with perhaps the exception of the NW
Piedmont where the dry air arrives first. Low temps will still be
near normal.
Saturday is another tricky day as the guidance continues to show
a nascent cold air damming wedge early in the day. The parent high
moving east over the Great Lakes looks relatively weak, but the low
level northeasterly flow has sufficient low level moisture to keep
a thick cloud deck underneath the developing inversion. How far the
wedge boundary makes it will have a big impact on the weather. Some
of the guidance stalls the front over the southwest part of the
fcst area through the day, providing enough forcing to produce
numerous showers, but the CAMs in the 12Z HREF are relatively quiet,
suggesting that boundary clears the fcst area early in the day. The
fcst follows the NBM and maintains a relatively high precip prob,
but not without a healthy dose of skepticism about the extent of
the precip. Either way, the clouds should keep us from being able
to warm up much and high temps should struggle to get out of the
70s. The downward trend in temps continues. If the precip doesn't
develop, we might be more like upper 70s than the mid 70s we will
have in the forecast. It will feel a whole lot different than the
last month, that's for sure...
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 108 PM EDT Friday: Weak, broad cyclonic flow aloft over
the eastern CONUS will linger through much of the forecast
period. ~1024mb surface high will set up shop over the northeastern
CONUS by Saturday as the near-term front sags south of the
CFWA. Drier surface air from the northeast will help to set
the stage for a hybrid CAD event through the weekend into the
early parts of next week. The latest SREF shows a LI between
3-5 indicating that the static stability is relatively strong
for the time of year, especially in regards to a Summertime CAD
event. Ongoing scattered showers are likely Saturday night as
a decent Atlantic fetch (850mb wind: ESE @ 15-20 kts) filters in
atop the CAD dome to go along with better isentropic lift. Extensive
cloud cover and elevated precip chances will allow for overnight lows
to run a few degrees below normal. A shortwave is seen rounding
the base of aforementioned cyclonic flow aloft, while drier air
continues to nose in from the northeast by Sunday. The wedge
boundary will be far south of the area and essentially choke any
really deep moisture flux from filtering into the region. In this
case, precip coverage will be less, with the southwest mountains
and Upper Savannah River Valley being the most likely locations of
receiving rainfall due to the closer proximity to the boundary. Some
form of scattered showers is shown per model guidance of breaking
containment further north in the CWA. Cloud cover will remain
extensive as the area remains locked into the CAD pattern. As
a result, afternoon highs on Sunday should end up 12-18 degrees
below normal, bringing in much needed relief from the heat.
Not too much of a pattern change on Monday, but parent high slips
further offshore into the Northern Atlantic, while the area will
be under more of an in-situ CAD. Model trends are drier for Sunday
night into the daytime period Monday. A digging shortwave trough
is shown over the central CONUS by Monday afternoon, allowing the
flow aloft to become more south to southwesterly. This is turn
will enhance the moisture flux provided by the stalled boundary
to the south and gradually work north. This should allow for
more scattered showers to work into the area, but not growing in
coverage until later Monday. In these types of setups, scattered
showers are possible throughout the duration of a CAD, which is
why mentionable PoPs remain in the forecast through the forecast
period. SREF and deterministic guidance are not excited with any
elevated instability, so only stratiform precip is expected outside
of a rogue thunderstorm through the short term. Some changes are on
the horizon during the extended period, but the CAD dome remains
locked in through Monday as afternoon highs will run 8-12 degrees
below normal as some peaks of sunshine may start making it to the
surface.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 143 PM EDT Friday: Upper trough will shift towards the Eastern
third of the CONUS, while a surface high becomes reinforced over New
England and Atlantic Canada later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will
help to keep the surface cool layer in place and static stability
high as the LI remains near a value of 3-5 through much of the
workweek, emphasizing a lingering CAD event. Better moisture flux
will reach the area by Tuesday as the flow above the surface turns
southerly being on the leeside of the upper trough as it slowly
travels further east. In this case, PoPs will ramp back but not
excited about the thunderstorm potential as there is only some form
of elevated instability. However, this is the summertime so you can
never truly rule it out. The Atlantic subtropical ridge will begin
to deepen by the latter half of the period, while the ridge over
the southwestern CONUS aids in the weakness of the trough over the
southeastern CONUS. This will allow for more diurnal convective,
especially over the mountains by the end of the forecast period and
for a gradual warming trend to occur. The CAD is shown eroding by
late into the workweek through either a coastal low or surface wind
divergence per model guidance. Temperatures remain a category or
two below normal, especially during the daytime period through D7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently VFR at all terminals and it should
stay that way outside of thunderstorms this afternoon, though storms
will become more and more numerous over time because of a favorable
buoyant convective environment. The immediate concern is the storms,
which are a good bet at all terminals, so a TEMPO was deployed some
time starting between now and 21Z across the region. A wind shift
boundary has moved across most of the area with the exception
of KAND, so winds should be N to NE thru the period once that
boundary clears KAND in a few hours. Storms should persist well
into the evening as a moisture boundary sinks slowly S and SW,
so a PROB30 was used to convey those restrictions. We will amend
often. Once the second boundary moves through, northeast flow will
increase and low level moisture will become even more plentiful,
quickly developing an MVFR ceiling restriction that drops to IFR
well before sunrise on Saturday. A weak cold air damming wedge will
develop early Saturday that should hold the ceiling restriction
across the region through the end of the period.
Outlook: Widespread cig restrictions may linger through Saturday
night. The rest of the weekend looks VFR apart from the usual low
stratus and/or fog each morning. Scattered to numerous showers and
a few thunderstorms are also possible Saturday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening. A return to more typical summertime weather
is expected early next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ029.
NC...None.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ011-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 1:07 AM EST, 13 hours 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
GAZ018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-
SCZ008>010-012>014-101>109-020615-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Laurens-Chester-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
207 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the North
Carolina Piedmont and Foothills and the South Carolina Upstate.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees are expected this
afternoon across the South Carolina Upstate, portions of northeast
Georgia and the Charlotte Metro area. Strong to severe storms may
develop this afternoon and evening. Any severe storms that develop
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Additionally,
heavy rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding with any storms
that develop this afternoon and evening, especially in areas that
received heavy rain in the past few days as well as across urban
areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds or
flash flooding to our office.
GAZ029-SCZ011-019-020615-
Elbert-Abbeville-Greenwood-
207 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the South
Carolina Upstate.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Heat Advisory.
Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon and evening. Any
severe storms that develop will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding with any storms that develop this afternoon and evening,
especially in areas that received heavy rain in the past few days as
well as across urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds or
flash flooding to our office.
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-020615-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
207 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the North
Carolina Mountains.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon and evening. Any
severe storms that develop will be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Additionally, heavy rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding with any storms that develop this afternoon and evening,
especially in areas that received heavy rain in the past few days as
well as across urban areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds or
flash flooding to our office.
AR
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 1, 1:23 PM EST, 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ502-504-011915-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
223 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Morganton, or 5 miles east of Table Rock, moving
southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Gamewell, and Oak Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3581 8180 3590 8164 3584 8154 3575 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 324DEG 6KT 3584 8171
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Aug 1, 1:29 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ064-011915-
Transylvania NC-
229 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brevard, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brevard, Looking Glass, Little River In Transylvania County,
Connestee, and Penrose.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3525 8282 3531 8274 3524 8262 3516 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 307DEG 6KT 3524 8274
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Aug 1, 1:38 PM EST, 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ505-011930-
McDowell Mountains NC-
238 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 238 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Marion, or near Old Fort, moving southeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Old Fort and Sugar Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3565 8205 3562 8206 3560 8203 3553 8208
3552 8213 3560 8223 3567 8216 3568 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 306DEG 8KT 3560 8215
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Aug 1, 1:52 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ068-508-011945-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
252 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Forest City, or 5 miles west of Casar, moving
southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Casar and Polkville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3548 8179 3556 8166 3549 8157 3540 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 306DEG 6KT 3549 8171
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Aug 1, 2:11 PM EST, 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ064-012000-
Transylvania NC-
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 311 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Brevard, or near Looking Glass, moving southeast
at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brevard, Looking Glass, and Penrose.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3528 8286 3537 8275 3528 8264 3520 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 308DEG 6KT 3529 8276
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Aug 1, 2:20 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
NCZ056-502-504-012015-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Catawba NC-
320 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL AND EAST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...
At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickory, or near Hickory Regional Airport, moving southeast at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Granite Falls,
Icard, Hildebran, Connelly Springs, and Claremont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3583 8134 3580 8133 3580 8128 3573 8111
3557 8126 3572 8154 3585 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 305DEG 13KT 3575 8138
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TW