The Sowbelly Fire started in early July due to a lightning strike 16 miles west of Delta, Colorado.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
The Sowbelly Fire started in early July due to a lightning strike 16 miles west of Delta, Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 10:27 PM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1127 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph. - Red Flag Warnings remain in place for NE Utah and NW Colorado as critical fire weather conditions remain in place this evening. - Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will remain visible through the period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 756 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Gusty winds across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado have begun to subside. Red Flag Warnings have been allowed to expire, as widespread critical fire weather conditions have abated. A few localized wind gusts are possible until sunset, but relative humidities will continue to recover after dark. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Small perturbations in the upper-level flow proved enough to produce showers and isolated storms early this morning, and we may see the same continue tonight as we remain in an subtly unsettled weather pattern. This is a lower-confidence part of the forecast, but there's enough of a signal in the CAMs to include a slight chance of showers overnight, especially south of I-70. The upper-level pattern becomes more zonal tomorrow helping usher in a drier airmass currently situated over California and Nevada. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a result with most showers and storms developing over the higher terrain. As the drier air works in, the potential for gusty thunderstorm outflow winds increases. Additionally, as westerly winds kick in tonight, a higher concentration of wildfire smoke from large, active fires in central Utah and northern Arizona will move into eastern Utah and western Colorado. The concentration of near-surface smoke could be quite noticeable tomorrow morning, but will improve with afternoon mixing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Lingering moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain on Saturday. However, virga is possible with much of the precipitation as southwesterly flow continues to bring dry air. After Saturday PoPs will drop to near zero across the region as dry air remains in place through midweek. The ECMWF Ens is suggesting drier conditions than the GFS Ens, but both keep PWAT anomalies below normal until around Tuesday evening. Monday looks to be the driest day of the long term, with PWAT anomalies dropping down to 25-50% of normal across the CWA. The dry conditions will contribute to a series of days with critical fire weather conditions, although coverage varies each day. Critical fire weather conditions will be more widespread on Monday and Tuesday as synoptically driven afternoon wind gusts exceed thresholds. Mixing with a jet streak overhead and an increasing pressure gradient brings these stronger winds. High temperatures look to be up to 10 degrees above normal through the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Convection is ongoing at this hour at KCEZ and possibly KDRO and KTEX over the next few hours. To account for this possibility included TEMPO groups for those two TAF sites. Some convection may continue overnight but not anticipate any TAF sites being affected. Tomorrow, another round of convection is expected but should not be as widespread as we've seen over the last few days. The best chances for convection look to be KGUC and KASE so did include PROB30 groups for them in the afternoon. Scattered to broken midlevel clouds will be the rule with VFR conditions remaining in place. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Red Flag Warnings remain in effect this afternoon for northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado as hot, dry, windy conditions develop this afternoon. Strong upper level winds will mix down as single digit relative humidities move in this afternoon. Wetting rains will also persist on terrain near the Continental Divide as we see another afternoon of thunderstorms and showers. Gusty outflows and small hail could pose hazards to fire crews working on area wildfires. Winds appear to ebb and flow in the coming days along with persistent low relative humidity. This is likely to keep some critical fire weather in the picture through the weekend and beyond. Wetting rains will be increasingly less likely by Sunday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && UPDATE...TGJT SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 320 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011300- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 320 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Afternoon convection will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Western Slope this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, small hail, and some brief heavy downpours will be possible. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for NE UT and NW CO as critical fire weather conditions set up this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hot and dry conditions setup heading into the weekend. The next chance for any precipitation looks to be on Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Sowbelly Fire started in early July due to a lightning strike 16 miles west of Delta, Colorado. The fire grew to 2,274 acres before it was contained in early August. The estimated cost to date was $1,320,667.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280931.