At the surface, an occluded low wobbled east-northeastward from southeastern ND to central Lake Superior during the very early morning of the 16th through the very early morning of the 17th. Accordingly, a warm front swept northeastward across northeast OH during the early morning of the 16th and then a cold front swept generally southeastward across northern OH during the early morning through…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
At the surface, an occluded low wobbled east-northeastward from southeastern ND to central Lake Superior during the very early morning of the 16th through the very early morning of the 17th. Accordingly, a warm front swept northeastward across northeast OH during the early morning of the 16th and then a cold front swept generally southeastward across northern OH during the early morning through late morning of the 16th. The same front then retreated northward as a warm front across northern Ohio during the evening of the 16th as a separate low along the front moved generally northeastward from the Lower MO Valley to southwestern Lower MI.
During the early morning of the 16th, a compact line of multicell thunderstorms generated isolated straight-line wind damage and hail as large as quarters as the storms persisted eastward amidst moderate MUCAPE and effective bulk shear, respectively. These storms occurred within the warm and moist sector between the warm and cold fronts. Later on the 16th, a line of multicell showers and thunderstorms persisted generally east-northeastward across portions of northern OH as the storms encountered moderate to strong MUCAPE and effective bulk shear, respectively, along and in vicinity of the second surface warm front. This convection generated periodic straight-line wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:31 AM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 331 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue to lift north of the area this morning as a low pressure system over the north-central U.S. meanders east. This low will move a cold front east today, before stalling across central Ohio by mid-afternoon. This will lift north again as a warm front tonight before a cold front and the associated low push east on Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday through early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A deepening upper level trough with a nearly vertically stacked low pressure is expected to meander east throughout the near term period, allowing for multiple chances of precipitation. Currently, this low pressure is extending a warm front across portion of Lake Erie, with the far eastern edge sagging south across far NE OH. This boundary will continue to lift north this morning as a weak cold front/shortwave trough pushes east into late morning. Overall forcing with the boundaries themselves is weak, however the atmosphere is still primed for the potential of severe weather, with the caveat being any storm would have to break the strong CAP to develop. Mesoanalysis suggests 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area with DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg. In addition, an area of deep moisture convergence remains present over far NE OH and NW PA. With all that being said, there remains a non-zero chance of isolated severe weather across far NE OH and NW PA over the next couple hours. Primary concern will remain gusty winds, although small hail cannot be ruled out. By late morning, the aforementioned weak cold front will settle just south of the area, allowing for skies to become mostly sunny. Clear skies mixed with WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s, possible feeling a tad warmer with dewpoints lingering in the upper 50s to low 60s. The stalled boundary will again lift north as another warm front this evening, followed by a stronger cold front late tonight into Saturday morning. These frontal passages will have better overall synoptic support with them as the center of the low moves across the northern Great Lakes. With clearing skies and a moist environment, decent destabilization is expected this afternoon with hi-res models suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 50-55 knots of bulk shear. Even with the atmosphere being primed with basic ingredients for convection, there remains a bit of uncertainty on how far north the airmass will destabilize to that extent and in regards to how much CIN will develop with the transition to a less diurnally favorable timing, similar to what happened this past night. Taking into account all the variables, SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 1 Slight Risk, with the exception of far NE OH and NW PA which remain in a Marginal Risk. Primary concern will be strong, damaging winds but isolated large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This severe potential will be highly dependent on how the atmosphere changes over the next several hours. In addition, heavy rainfall associated with strong thunderstorms will pose a local flood risk, especially in poor drainage or low lying areas and as a result WPC has issued a Day 1 ERO for the entire area. Please stay weather aware today and have ways to receive warnings at night as this may turn into an overnight event. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, showers should gradually diminish from west to east as the cold front push east and a surface trough lingers over the area. Enough wrap around moisture associated with the low in southern Ontario/Quebec will allow for rain showers to persist across the eastern portion of the CWA through Saturday, before drying out Saturday night. Much cooler temperatures arrive on Saturday behind the departing front, with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s. In addition, gusty winds of 20-25 mph have the potential for temperatures to feel a bit cooler than that. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low continues its exit to the east with a few lingering cold air advection showers over the far northeastern zones aided by weak surface and upper level troughs. POPs gone by 00Z Sunday, but the general troughing over the southern Great Lakes will persist through Sunday with some degree of cloud cover with low level moisture that is still refusing to relinquish its grip on the region. This period of northerly surface winds, 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures slow to recover, and varying cloud cover will support a cooler stretch of weather that will push into the long term period with temperatures that will be around 10 degrees below normal. Low end POPs return late Monday with the approach of a warm front from the southwest for the southwestern zones of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging has built in across the eastern portion of CONUS bringing mild and dry weather to the start of the long term period. The next upper level trough will be developing across the Rockies late Monday into Tuesday and will bring unsettled weather during the middle of the week. The accompanying surface low will be entering the region by Wednesday moving eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. There may be sufficient CAPE and instability come Wednesday evening into Thursday morning where a few thunderstorms could be possible across the region. As the surface low slowly departs out to the east, precipitation will be slow to depart as well and should expect periodic showers with the wrap around moisture to occur through the end of the period. Temperatures for next week are trending to be slightly below average with highs in the mid to low 60s and lows in the upper 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Predominately VFR conditions should persist through much of this TAF period as the entire area lingers in the warm sector of a low pressure centered over the north central US. Initial thoughts earlier this evening were that a MCS was going to surge east across the area, however all of the convection has remained north of the area across Michigan. As a result, there was a large shift in the TAF forecast with limited gusts and thunderstorms now expected. Opted to maintain a TEMPO for heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple hours, however this may be a stretch given the strengthening CAP over the area. By Friday daybreak, any lingering showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area allowing for clearing skies and winds 10-12 knots from the southwest throughout today. Tonight, another round of convection is possible between the 00-06Z Saturday time frame, although confidence remains low given the poor handling of ongoing convection in recent model guidance. Opted to handle this potential with PROB30. There may be a brief period of non-VFR conditions, but will need to monitor model trends in the coming hours. Winds gusts will ramp up near the end of this TAF period as a cold front approaches from the west and strengthens the gradient across the area. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible through Saturday. && .MARINE... West to southwesterly flow at 10-15 knots is expected across the lake for the majority of the day Friday before the winds start to back overnight to be predominantly out of the south. Waves between 1- 3 feet are expected during through Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, the winds will veer becoming westerly and increasing to 15- 20 knots across the lake with as a low pressure system moves across the Northern Great Lakes into Eastern Canada. Waves will build to 4- 8 feet throughout the day into Sunday before subsiding in the late evening. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for most of the day Saturday through Sunday afternoon for primarily points east of the Islands. As the low pressure pushes off eastward, winds and waves will begin to subside and become west to northwesterly at 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet. Winds will becoming primarily northerly Monday morning as high pressure and ridging builds over the region and then veer to be northeasterly through Tuesday. Waves will be less than 3 feet during this time period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...04 NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...04 MARINE...26
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
229 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
OHZ012-014-089-160715-
Lake OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
229 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND NORTHERN
ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT...
At 229 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairport Harbor, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Painesville, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Fairport Harbor,
Geneva-On-The-Lake, Mentor, Geneva, Madison, North Kingsville, Perry,
Austinburg, Kingsville, North Perry, Grand River, Edgewood, Plymouth
Center, North Madison, and Kelloggsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4182 8052 4171 8106 4172 8110 4171 8111
4167 8129 4173 8134 4185 8104 4187 8090
4189 8082 4191 8080 4191 8077 4198 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 248DEG 39KT 4176 8128
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
26Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
406 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
OHZ011>014-022-160845-
Geauga OH-Portage OH-Lake OH-Cuyahoga OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
406 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE...GEAUGA...
NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA...LAKE AND SOUTHWESTERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES
THROUGH 445 AM EDT...
At 406 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Willowick, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Painesville, Willowick, Chardon, Fairport Harbor, Euclid,
Mentor, Cleveland Heights, Solon, Willoughby, Eastlake, Streetsboro,
Warrensville Heights, South Russell, Middlefield, Burton, Highland
Hills, Mantua, Timberlake, and Lakeline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4170 8077 4150 8099 4150 8101 4148 8101
4122 8129 4128 8140 4135 8140 4135 8151
4145 8169 4149 8174 4155 8162 4170 8141
4175 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 279DEG 35KT 4164 8146
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
26Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
407 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
OHZ012-014-089-PAZ001>003-160900-
Lake OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-Northern Erie PA-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
407 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE...CENTRAL
ASHTABULA...SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 AM EDT...
At 407 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Kingsville, or near Conneaut, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Edinboro, Geneva, Madison,
Girard, North Kingsville, Perry, Albion, Linesville, Pymatuning
North, Pymatuning Central, Lake City, Austinburg, Kingsville,
Pierpont, North Perry, Conneautville, and Cranesville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 7993 4161 8041 4178 8119 4185 8104
4187 8090 4191 8080 4192 8072 4196 8055
4207 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 279DEG 35KT 4195 8066
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
26The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:00 UTC.
34 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Small tree branches downed about one-mile southwest of Amherst and large trees downed about one-mile SSE of Amherst.
Hail up to quarter-size about four-miles ESE of South Amherst.
Numerous trees downed in Marion.
Marion County Airport ASOS recorded a peak straight-line convective wind gust of 60-mph.
Multiple tree limbs downed along Lenox Avenue in Roseland, about two-miles northwest of downtown Mansfield.
Mansfield Lahm Airport ASOS recorded a peak straight-line convective wind gust of 59-mph.
Tree limbs and power poles downed in Greenwich.
Large trees downed in Gambier.
Several trees downed in Ashland.
Several trees downed in Savannah.
Trees downed in Polk.
Trees downed in Wooster.
Trees snapped and shingles ripped off the roof at a residence about five-miles north of Lodi. Damage caused by outflow-dominant showers.
Tree downed in Lodi.
Tree limbs downed about two-miles southwest of Doylestown.
Large tree limbs downed about three-miles ENE of Doylestown.
Tree downed along Manchester Road, just south of Fisherman's Central, in Portage Lakes area.
Tree downed along Provens Drive in Green.
OH Route 619, just west of State Street, became impassable due to downed trees in Portage Lakes.
Medium to large tree branches downed at Rose Circle Drive and Akron View Drive in Barberton.
Trees downed along Glennbrook Drive in Norton area.
Numerous trees downed in Barberton, including one that pierced the roof of a home.
Large tree downed across Dogwood Drive and Stoner Avenue in Massillon.
Snapped tree fell onto a garage and damaged gutters at a residence in the Massillon area.
Peak straight-line convective wind gust of 66-mph at the Akron-Canton Airport ASOS.
Peak straight-line convective wind gust of 66-mph recorded at the Akron Fulton Airport ASOS.
Large tree snapped in a park in Canton.
Large healthy tree snapped at Founders Hall at Malone University in Canton.
Public report of a measured 64-mph peak straight-line convective wind gust in Stow.
Tree downed at U.S. Route 224 and Congress Road in Mogadore.
Tree downed along the 1400 block of Trares Road in Brimfield.
Tree downed in Kent.
Tree downed along Old Forge Road in Brimfield.
Tree downed along I-76 about four-miles SSE of Ravenna. Damage was caused by outflow-dominant showers.
Large tree downed at Gower Road and New Milford Road in Rootstown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280708, 1280714, 1280722, 1280724, 1280734, 1280739, 1280740, 1283519, 1283520, 1283521, 1283522, 1283523, 1283524, 1283525, 1283526, 1283528, 1283536, 1283537, 1283538, 1283540, 1283541, 1283543, 1283557, 1283558, 1283550, 1283551, 1283559, 1283560, 1283561, 1283568, 1283569, 1283572, 1283573, 1283583, 1283584.