Scattered thunderstorms developed during the evening hours ahead of a frontal boundary moving through the Ohio Valley.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed during the evening hours ahead of a frontal boundary moving through the Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 7:17 PM EST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 817 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions with light winds are expected to persist through the period. The greatest chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Compared to parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan, the ILN CWA has been in a relative minimum of convective activity today. Model and SPC Mesoanalysis data suggested some convective inhibition over the area, and the 00Z KILN sounding has some rather unimpressive lapse rates between 850mb and 500mb. Nonetheless, there has been a fairly consistent HRRR signal over the past few runs to key in on the convection currently over the southwestern ILN CWA, and to allow it to grow and progress northeast across much of the forecast area -- perhaps taking advantage of a slightly more favorable thermodynamic environment advecting in from the west and southwest. Severe weather seems unlikely, but with around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (gradually diminishing with time tonight) and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear, a strong storm or two could develop. Some low-end chance of showers and storms will likely continue through the overnight hours, but additional activity should remain fairly isolated. Previous discussion > The upper level ridge continues to break down with southwesterly flow developing more in earnest especially for areas along/west of the I71 corridor. Several of the convective allowing models keep thunderstorm activity going into the overnight, and with very weak steering flow, increasing warm cloud depths and PWs rising above 2 inches, some concern for locally heavy rainfall. Still a fair amount of uncertainty on coverage/locations, but will mention the potential for some thunderstorms to contain heavy rain and a risk of localized flooding. With some dry air aloft and DCAPES increasing to over 900 J/Kg, a few storms may become strong with an outside chance for a severe storm. Overnight lows near 70 to lower 70s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The weak cold front will push through the region on Wednesday, entering the mid Ohio Valley during a relative lull in convective activity. By the time diurnally enhanced instability ramps up, the front should be through west central Ohio and the upper Miami Valley, so the focus for renewed convection should primarily be along/east of the I-71 corridor. While the steering flow is expected to not be quite as weak as on Tuesday/Tuesday night, some potential lingers in the east for locally heavy rain so will continue a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Highs in the lower/mid 80s in the Mid/upper Miami Valley and west central Ohio, with mid/upper 80s to the south and east ahead of the front, which should clear most of the forecast area by 00z. Wednesday night lows will dip into the lower/mid 60s where partial clearing occurs in west central Ohio/eastern Indiana, but most locations will remain under a cloud deck which will keep much of the area with lows in the upper 60s behind the front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northern portion of eastern U.S. mid level ridge is suppressed as a long wave trof settles across the southeast Canada and northern New England. An embedded shortwave and slow moving front looks to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday. The highest pops will be observed over our eastern counties. Another weak shortwave will track east southeast across the region on Friday, but there will be limited moisture to work with - so expect most of the region to remain dry. Mid level ridge to build northeast into the MS River Valley and Ohio Valley this week end with surface high pressure becoming reestablished along the east coast. This will result in height and thickness rises and warmer temperatures. After a brief break in hot and humid conditions - temperatures and dewpoints will be rising again this weekend. NBM mean max Heat indices rise into the upper 90s Saturday and approach 100 across the south Sunday and Monday. Ensemble probabilities of GFS/ECMWF/Canadian suggest that the probability of the max heat index exceeding 100 is only 10 to 15 percent. NBM has a tendency to be too high with surface dew points - so it is something to continue to track as the week progresses. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday thru the middle of next week as the mid level ridge gets suppressed and a northwesterly flow develops. This change in flow and increase in thunderstorm chances will likely lower temperatures with highs generally in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this evening, but there remains a chance of thunderstorms. Confidence is still too low to include this specifically in the TAFs, so a PROB30 group will be continued through around midnight. If and when storms develop, this can be adjusted to prevailing or TEMPO TSRA. However, much of the evening and overnight hours will be dry. Still looks like some stratus will develop overnight, so MVFR ceilings have been included at all TAF sites, and below 2kft at all but KDAY. Expecting this to lift and/or scatter out to VFR in the 14Z-16Z time frame. Visibilities overnight are likely to remain VFR, but a brief period of MVFR is possible. Additional showers and storms may develop on Wednesday. Coverage looks spotty, so only a PROB30 group will be used for this TAF issuance. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR/Hatzos SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hatzos
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>044- 051>053-060>062-070-071-077-078-131815- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland- Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Hardin- Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble- Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont- 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Increasing coverage of slow moving thunderstorms will bring the potential for locally heavy rain and localized flooding Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-072>074-079>082-088-131815- Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union-Delaware-Madison-Franklin- Licking-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered slow moving thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon could bring localized downpours and potential flooding issues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
917 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
INZ075-KYZ091>093-OHZ077-130145-
Ohio IN-Boone KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-
917 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...NORTHERN
KENTON...NORTHERN CAMPBELL...BOONE AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 945
PM EDT...
At 917 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Pleasant Hills to Rising Sun, moving northeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Fairfield, Covington, Florence, Independence, Norwood,
Forest Park, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport, Sharonville, Blue Ash,
Loveland, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, North College Hill,
Madeira, Edgewood, and Elsmere.
This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 19.
I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 5 and 19.
I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 175 and 191.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 17.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3903 8488 3910 8484 3911 8482 3913 8482
3925 8474 3931 8459 3929 8426 3927 8426
3925 8429 3922 8432 3921 8431 3921 8429
3890 8451 3893 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 236DEG 21KT 3924 8453 3896 8485
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
HatzosThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:31 UTC.
2 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A vehicle was submerged in high water on Loveland Madeira Road near the interchange with I-275.
High water was reported on the Montgomery Road exit off of I-275.
Several trees were downed in the city of Delaware, including in Mingo Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1281257, 1281258, 1281259.