Hot and humid weather continued ahead of a cold front arching from Hudson Bay to Iowa. A mesoscale convective vortex developed over Wisconsin early in the morning and crossed Michigan from southwest to northeast, largely dissipating with time.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Hot and humid weather continued ahead of a cold front arching from Hudson Bay to Iowa. A mesoscale convective vortex developed over Wisconsin early in the morning and crossed Michigan from southwest to northeast, largely dissipating with time. However, remnants of this MCV crossed northeast lower Michigan and resulted in some tree damage near Hubbard Lake around midday.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 5:24 AM EST, 6 hours 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 624 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last day of humidity and sporadic shower and storm chances (some perhaps strong) today. Best chances for rain favor Saginaw Bay this morning into the afternoon, and eastern upper this evening into tonight. Lesser rain chances elsewhere. - Cooler and less humid Wednesday and Thursday. - Quickly turning warmer and more humid into the weekend with shower and storm chances being reintroduced. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis: Northern Michigan sits in a delicate little place I like to call "meteorological purgatory" at the time of this discussion's writing, with dry conditions prevailing across the board. Low level moisture is ample with surface dewpoints holding in the upper 60s to near 70, with an inversion leading to some fog development in some areas, perhaps enhanced by an area of Canadian wildfire smoke pivoting across the region (Air Quality Advisory remains in effect across eastern upper thru noon today). Current focus is centered on two separate features: a convectively charged wave situated over Missouri and Iowa (with some LLJ driven convection blossoming over the Chicago metro and far southern Lake Michigan) riding a stationary boundary bisecting the Great Lakes from SW to NE... and a more potent surface cold frontal boundary tied to a digging area of troughing across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Both of these features are set to pass into the Great Lakes region, bringing potential for one last humid day characterized by sporadic shower and storm chances before drier air builds into midweek. Forecast Details: Slow advancement of the convective wave to the southwest will lead to rain chances just reaching the far south of the CWA after daybreak. Frontal boundary should be oriented from MBL to PZQ, thus the theme from the previous forecast cycle lives on another cycle... the majority of the rain and showers that spread into the region should be suppressed south and east across the CWA, with the best overall chances for shower and storm activity favoring the Saginaw Bay region. This particular area is one spot SPC has focused in a "double barrel" Marginal Risk for severe storms in our CWA. It's not going to take much for destabilization to lead to upscale growing convection across the CWA, with destabilization possible before noon. With a subtle boost in shear, would not be surprising to have a stronger storm in this area, especially if organized clusters can materialize... and with outflow boundaries possible all over the place, some of this convection could get robust on a dime. More of a cloudy and light shower regime anticipated elsewhere through early afternoon, though subtle marine layer convergence may try to drive a more robust shower or two across the Grand Traverse and Little Traverse Bay regions from late morning into the early afternoon. There is a narrow window for some storm development across northeast lower along the frontal zone later this afternoon in the wake of the initial wave, but not really anticipating this to be overly robust due to lacking instability sapped up from earlier convection. That being said, this activity could produce torrential rainfall considering PWATs along and ahead of the stationary boundary will be 1.6 to 1.9. All in all, this activity should be transient enough to prevent much more than a localized risk for marginal ponding / flooding in poor draining areas for the time being. In the event that morning convection trends less robust, this could turn into a better severe setup across Saginaw Bay... so will have to wait and see how the morning goes. Attention then turns to the upstream more robust frontal boundary. Convective response anticipated across the Wisconsin Highlands and central upper Michigan given they will have less cloud cover to balloon some diurnal instability in the post-stationary frontal airmass. That convection should ride the front into eastern upper and the Straits area this evening. Issue with this feature is that instability upstream may be shaky at best, which could even hinder development upstream. As such, this adds another layer of doubt to how robust any of this convection will be as it approaches APX-land considering our instability is going to be abysmal to nonexistent from a lack of daytime heating / cloud cover / shower and storm activity. As such, expecting a quick weakening trend with this area of convection as it approaches northwest lower after sunset... with better forcing probably keeping some activity afloat across the eastern Yoop and the Straits. This feature does come with better dynamics, but whether or not we get to use them or not is up for grabs at this point, and conceptually screams sub-severe decaying, outflow driven convection. Nonetheless, the other part of the "double barrel" marginal risk for damaging winds covers parts of eastern upper west / southwest into Wisconsin (where the better overall chance at more robust convection lies to begin with). Temps: One last humid day today... with highs generally 77 to 87 (warmest northeast lower). In the wake of the cold frontal passage, much less humid air will filter in through the night... with lows bottoming out 58 to 67. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 A reprieve from the heat and humidity is on tap in the middle of the week as Canadian high pressure makes an appearance, stunting highs in the 70s to near 80 Wednesday and Thursday. That high pressure will allow for quite the cool night Wednesday night, with lows in the mid-upper 40s across the interiors and upper 50s near the lakeshores. Of course... the underlying theme all summer has been that when we get these Canadian airmass intrusions, they come accompanied with wildfire smoke, so that may be something to watch for as well. This trend will be brief as the frontal systems that pass tonight will be drawn back into the region to kick off the weekend... thus we will see an uptick in temperatures and rain chances Friday and Saturday. Details on the exact evolution of any storms is murky, but this is another pattern somewhat conducive for MCS generation upstream... more details to come regarding this. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Localized BR/FG across parts of northern Michigan is expected to lift over the next few hours as mid/high cloud slides overhead and winds increase. MVFR CIGs may work into parts of northwest lower and eastern upper -- most notably MBL and CIU -- briefly this morning before returning to VFR with the other TAF sites for most of the issuance period. Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening, which may degrade flight conditions at any TAF sites storms track over. Southwest winds around 10 kts will gust to around 20 kts late this morning into this evening. Patchy FG/BR may develop again later tonight as rain departs. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1057 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-131500- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 1057 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon across portions of northern lower Michigan, particularly near Saginaw Bay. Additional thunderstorms are possible across eastern upper Michigan later tonight. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, but a few storms may produce strong winds and torrential rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-131500- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 1057 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible through this evening. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, but a few storms may produce strong winds and torrential rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:42 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Delayed report including images of over two dozen trees uprooted on the east side of Hubbard Lake. Some had fallen on homes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1297453.