Weak southwest flow aloft, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough, induced low-level moisture return across southern Illinois through the day. By late afternoon, surface-based CAPE was around 3000 J/kg and downdraft CAPE was 800-1000 J/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Weak southwest flow aloft, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough, induced low-level moisture return across southern Illinois through the day. By late afternoon, surface-based CAPE was around 3000 J/kg and downdraft CAPE was 800-1000 J/kg. With weak flow aloft, the shear was also weak. In the early evening an isolated storm produced a significant downburst as it moved east northeast across Grayville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 4:49 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 549 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical summer-time heat and humidity will continue through the work week. Daily highs will primarily be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night for most areas, before decreasing chances on Thursday focused on mainly the southern half of the region. - Dry weather is expected Friday through Monday with temperatures warming into the mid 90s. Heat index values will rise into the triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Upper level troughing extends across the north central U.S. this afternoon and is resulting in scattered showers and storms across portions of the area. Can't rule out brief gusty winds in some of the stronger storms but severe weather is not expected this afternoon. The upper trough and a surface boundary across the region on Wednesday will support continued chances of rain/storms. By Thursday, the front will move east of the area with northerly winds as high pressure builds in from the north. Most of the area will likely remain dry with slight chances across mainly the southern half of the region. Heights build across the region late in the week and especially over the weekend leading to increasing temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures over the weekend will rise into the mid 90s with heat indices likely climbing into the triple digits. Localized heat indices may approach 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Towards the end of the extended period, the ridge shows signs of breaking down. This may lead to a slow increase in convection but temperatures will still remain hot with highs remaining in the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Scattered convection will remain a factor through the next hour or two, but should start to decrease quickly after sunset. A stray shower or two is possible in the overnight as a weak front moves in from the northwest but operational impacts appear too unlikely for TAF mention with this package. Moisture is pooled ahead of the front in a way that would support fog formation but mid and upper level cloud cover may prohibit sufficient cooling. VFR conditions then appear likely through the day Wednesday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...JGG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-132000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 /350 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon over portions of the region. Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds can be expected. Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon with any slow moving storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Scattered thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, mainly in the afternoon. Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds can be expected. Afternoon heat index values will top out from 100 to 105 degrees in most locations each afternoon from Friday through Monday. Sunday should see the worst conditions. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 MOZ086-100-108>110-122145- Bollinger-Wayne MO-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard- Including the cities of Marble Hill, Piedmont, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, and Bloomfield 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 ...A few strong afternoon storms today... At 231 pm a line of thunderstorms was located from near Doniphan to just west of Marble Hill. The line is moving very slowly east. A few of the cells along this line may briefly produce gusty winds to 40-50 mph. They are also producing torrential rainfall. Isolated flash flooding and a severe wind gust(60+ mph or two may emerge from this activity through 430 pm. JGG
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
430 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 WNW Chrisney 38.03N 87.10W
08/12/2025 Spencer IN Law Enforcement
Trees down.
&&
JGGThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 24 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:05 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down numerous trees and large tree limbs in Grayville. Some of the downed trees took down powerlines. A brick wall of a business was partially knocked down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292069.