Showers and thunderstorms along a coastal trough began training over the same small area leading to flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms along a coastal trough began training over the same small area leading to flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 8:54 PM EST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 954 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will bring unsettled weather through tonight. The low will lift north of the area Wednesday, with unsettled weather remaining in the forecast through end of the week. A cold front will cross the area late Friday, followed by drier weather for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Weak trough just inland from the coast helped initiate convection during the late afternoon hours. This activity then moved east- southeast pushing offshore during the last few hours. Convection will linger offshore overnight as elevated convection moves in from the west. Activity offshore will continue overnight with potential for a few storms to move onshore. Storms moving in from the west will continue to weaken as they move into a less favorable environment. Made adjustment to timing and coverage to try and account for convective evolution the next 6-12 hours, but overall forecast thinking has not changed. Potential for low clouds and rain inland while along the coast showers and thunderstorms will be possible from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stalled frontal boundary sits south of our forecast area as of 3 PM, but observations show this boundary is gradually shifting northward. As for rainfall this evening, HREF members have been consistent in keeping the axis of heaviest rainfall just off of our coast. These members have also been consistently producing heavy rain in convection where no instability exists according to the SPC mesoanalysis, so their initialization has consistently produced questions throughout the day. This has led to uncertainty in where heavy rain, if any, will develop tonight. Given the lack of instability and general trend in a lower QPF forecast for this evening, I have ended the Flood Watch. Heavy rain may be possible along the NC coast this evening, but should be brief. ILM is currently at a 5.2 inch rainfall deficit since January 1st. Recent warming has pushed soil temperatures into the low and mid 70s. This means that soils should handle any rainfall quite well. In addition, the lack of instability (as observed over storms within the Gulf Stream waters earlier today) are unlikely to generate a sufficient rainfall rate for significant flooding concerns. A weak shortwave will push low pressure off to the north and east on Wednesday morning. Some scattered showers are possible (due to an unseasonable depth of saturation) in the wake of the upper trough and trailing low. Showers should come to an end by mid morning as dry air trickles in from the west. The bulk of upper level moisture will be confined east of I-95 on Wednesday afternoon. With cloud cover finally departing earlier in the day, warmer temperatures should generate afternoon instability. Showers and thunderstorms should be focused near the sea breeze during the early afternoon before spreading inland through eastern SC. Upstream convection could produce a few outflows and additional coverage over southern and central SC. Confidence in coverage is low for now, hopefully models come into better agreement before tonight's forecast package. Highs in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface low will be moving northeast across Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night, with mostly dry weather expected locally as dry air aloft moves in. Lows in the upper 60s. Plenty of high clouds Thursday, but will have enough warming to bring us back to near- normal temps in the mid 80s. Rain chances increase Thursday afternoon, particularly for NE SC, as deep moisture is advected from the southwest ahead of a strong upper shortwave. Forecast soundings show enough instability for scattered thunderstorms. Rain chances linger into Thursday night as deep moisture remains and aforementioned shortwave moves across. Lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday will be the most active day of the long term period. Plenty of moisture and instability in the WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front will support scattered thunderstorms during the day. Severe storms may be possible Friday due to elevated shear associated with deep trough to the west, during the day with scattered storms and along the cold front. Will have to keep an eye on cloud coverage early Friday for the scattered severe potential during the day, as lingering overcast skies could bust the instability forecast. Cold front progged to move across late Friday, with cooler and drier weather forecasted for Friday night. Below normal temps Saturday and Saturday night will warm a bit for Sunday into early next week. Predominantly weather behind the cold front for next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm front will lift north of the area tonight, although the inland wedge will keep inland terminals in the cooler, more stable air. High confidence in prolonged period of IFR ceilings and perhaps some light showers closer to daybreak at FLO/LBT. Along the coast a mix of MVFR/IFR will exist for much of the night with both ceilings and visibility dipping into the IFR category at times as heavier showers affect the terminals. Once the warm front lifts north MVFR will become the dominant category, but it may take until near daybreak before the warm front lifts north and ceilings improve. More typical May pattern with scattered afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms Wed as a trough lingers in the region. Extended Outlook...Periodic IFR/MVFR possible in storms each day through Friday, confidence in timing and details is low. VFR returns this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...As a frontal boundary lifts north of the area overnight, easterly winds will gradually veer to the south. Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this evening and overnight. Behind this frontal boundary, synoptic winds will be weaker, around 10-15 knots on Wednesday. Aggravated 4-6 foot seas for NC waters will continue into Wednesday morning and thus the SCA will continue until seas subside late tonight or early Wednesday. Light winds are expected by tomorrow evening. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Winds remain fairly light out of the southwest Wednesday night through Thursday as surface low moves across the Mid-Atlantic coast and weak pressure pattern develops locally. Seas 2-3 ft, primarily due to persisting E swell. Southwest flow begins to increase Thursday night into Friday as a cold front approaches, with the front expected to move across the waters sometime Friday night. Seas increase in response during the day Friday, peaking Friday night before SSW fresh swell begins to weaken. Winds out of the W/WSW for Saturday behind the front. Best chance for thunderstorms over the waters will be Thursday night and late Friday, with lower chances during the day. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...III NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...III MARINE...VAO/21
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington NC 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 NCZ106-108-290200- Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover- 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. The moderate risk of rip currents may continue into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ110-290200- Coastal Brunswick- 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. SCZ054-056-290200- Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown- 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ107-290200- Inland New Hanover- 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Minor coastal flooding along the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward with evening high tides through mid week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039- 055-058-059-290200- Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm-Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick- Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg- Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry- 953 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters, southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement reported some road closures, submerged vehicles and vehicular rescues due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1250993.