A mid to upper level low continued moving into the central Appalachians, though weakening as it moved eastward. Although SBCAPE increased to the 1000-2000 J/kg by the afternoon, bulk shear was only around 20 knots, so coverage of strong to severe storms was limited to the Piedmont.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A mid to upper level low continued moving into the central Appalachians, though weakening as it moved eastward. Although SBCAPE increased to the 1000-2000 J/kg by the afternoon, bulk shear was only around 20 knots, so coverage of strong to severe storms was limited to the Piedmont. Some of the storms became strong enough to produce some wind damage in Caswell County, North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 10:30 AM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1130 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid and upper level low pressure system across the
Ohio Valley will weaken further and drift northeast into the
mid-Atlantic today. Showers/storms will again be possible,
mainly for the Piedmont areas, with a marginal risk for severe
storms. The storm system will shift away from our region on
Thursday. A cold front will move through our area on Saturday
and should shift southeast of the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1) Another round of numerous showers and storms expected today.
Have issued a short-fused flood watch, effective until 10 PM for
portions of the forecast area, mainly in the N and NW in the higher
terrain. PW remains above normal this morning as the negatively
tilted shortwave trough swings through. As the mid and low level
flow has lessened, a slow storm motion and continued deep LCL-0C
layer along with dynamic forcing for ascent should foster high
coverage of showers and embedded storms. Isolated flooding may be an
issue, esp in those areas that saw 1-4" of rain in the last 24
hours. Coverage should be on the downturn this evening with loss of
heating and the departure of the trough, but high water could linger
through the evening. Highs in the 60s and 70s. -GIH
Earlier discussion from 745 AM: Showers are again beginning to fill
in across the area this morning as the upper low to our west
continues to drive in moisture. PoPs were raised to account for this
as showers will continue through the morning, before a brief lull in
coverage of rain midday. Daytime heating will allow storms to fire
along the Blue Ridge and head east into the Piedmont, where higher
instability will reside. This could allow an isolated storm to
become severe, with hail as the main threat. The previous forecast
remains on track...
Previous Discussion...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1) All flood hazards have been allowed to expire.
Rainfall has mostly come to an end across the area, though a
few stray showers will linger through the night. All flood
hazards have been allowed to expire across the area, as river
gauges are now receding with no further heavy rainfall expected
tonight. Patchy fog is already occurring, and will likely
continue to expand and linger through mid morning, due to the
rainfall overnight and light winds across the area.
For today, the upper-low continues to remain over the Ohio River
Valley, and a shortwave will rotate around it and move into the Mid-
Atlantic. This will again instigate showers and storms across the
RNK CWA. By afternoon, daytime heating will aid in storms developing
east of the Blue Ridge. SPC has the Piedmont area in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather, with hail being the largest threat.
Coverage of rainfall will be less than Tuesday, though PoPs
remain likely across the Piedmont, where instability will be
greater in the afternoon as the shortwave moves through. Due to
the recent heavy rainfall the past few days, any heavy rainfall
could result in flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and
along rivers. By Wednesday night, showers and storms begin to
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog will
again be possible overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Not as unsettled as previous days although a couple of
features could produce some widely scattered showers and a few
storms Thursday morning, during Thursday afternoon/evening and again
late Thursday night.
2) There is a Marginal Risk of severe convection Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially across the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills
and Piedmont.
The persistent and slow moving mid and upper level low that has
produced the unsettled weather over the previous few days will have
opened up into a trough that extends from the Great Lakes southeast
into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday morning. This feature will slowly
lift northeast into New England during the day Thursday, in its wake
a somewhat robust northwest flow aloft will become more westerly
Thursday night as some flat mid level ridging moves across the
region. A baggy surface pattern will be in place on Thursday morning
with a weak surface trough extending southeast from the Great Lakes
into the DelMarVa region. This boundary will shift north as a pseudo-
warm front with increasing thickness values and a warmer air mass
moving into the region.
In terms of sensible weather, Thursday morning will start out with a
fair amount of cloudiness, especially near the Blue Ridge,
Shenandoah Valley, and Piedmont. As a better defined southerly to
southwesterly flow develops, expect a bit more sunshine to develop
than previous days. Surface heating combined with dew points in the
lower to mid 60s and PW values of about 125% of normal will support
the development of widely scattered to scattered showers and storms.
A modest short wave trough riding atop the ridge could initiate a
few showers/storms that move northeast across the area during the
morning. After a lull, additional scattered convection should
develop with the aid of heating during the afternoon, favored from
the Roanoke area north and east. A few of these storm could be
strong to severe given the strong mid level flow and resultant 0-6km
shear of 25 to 35 kts during the afternoon that could support some
storm organization. The convection should shift northeast of the
area during the evening followed by another lull for much of the
overnight before decaying convection across the OH and TN Valleys
moves into the RNK CWA with a few light showers very late Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday should range between 80 and 85 east of Blue
Ridge with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in the higher terrain.
Lows Thursday night will generally range from the mid 50s to lower
60s. -Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Chance of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, showers and
storms on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances decrease for Sunday
and Monday and increase a touch for Tuesday.
2) Much warmer for Friday and Saturday and then cooling a bit on
Sunday and into early next week.
Flat mid and upper level ridging across the area on Friday morning
will give way to a strengthening southwesterly flow for Friday into
Saturday supporting increasing thickness values, warmer temperatures
and increasing deep layer moisture with PW values increasing to 125
to 150% of normal for Friday and Saturday. A cold front associated
with a progressive mid-level cyclone that moves across the upper
Midwest on Friday and into the Great Lakes will approach the area on
Friday and move into the region on Saturday supporting scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms. A few
storms on Saturday could be strong. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will range well into the 80s with perhaps a few upper 70s in the
higher elevations, Saturday's highs could be dampened a bit by more
clouds and some precipitation.
The cold front is forecast to push through the area on Sunday and
remain across GA and SC into early next week supporting a decrease
in precipitation chances, more sunshine and cooler temperatures,
Highs on Sunday and Monday will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s
with highs moderating into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday.
-Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /12z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Wednesday...
LIFR conditions are across most terminals this morning, as a
combination of dense fog and low cigs continue to linger in the
area. MVFR conditions are currently at ROA/LWB. As mixing begins
this morning, the fog is expected to burn off around 15z, which will
raise flight conditions to MVFR at all terminals. Due to the upper
low continuing to remain in the area, showers will continue through
the morning and spread east into the piedmont this afternoon. With
the aid of daytime heating, storms will be possible after 18z,
possibly some even being severe, particularly for DAN/LYH. Aside
from where the convection will be, VFR conditions return this
evening and into Wednesday night as the rain dissipated post-sunset.
Late tonight, fog again begins to form across the area, lowering
flight conditions back to MVFR/IFR conditions, aside from BLF/ROA
which will remain VFR through the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Beginning Thursday morning, rain chances remain lower through
midday Saturday, though showers/storms will be possible each day
due to daytime heating. Any impact from a storm would lower
flight conditions temporarily, but generally VFR conditions will
be expected at all terminals. By Saturday, a cold front moves
into the area, with the best rain chances expected along/west of
the Blue Ridge. The front moves through by Sunday, with quieter
conditions expected across the area.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...
The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025, lasting through
approximately Thursday, May 15, 2025.
During the time of the update, forecast operations will be
conducted by our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC to
minimize any potential interruption to services. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.
However, limited impacts will occur to the following services:
NOAA Weather Transmitters: All NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters
maintained by NWS Blacksburg will be off the air through the
time of the update.
This includes the following transmitters in North Carolina,
Virginia, and West Virginia:
Mount Jefferson (WNG88 – 162.500 MHz)
Richlands (WZ2543 – 162.425 MHz)
Wytheville (WZ2500 – 162.450 MHz)
Roanoke (WXL60 – 162.475 MHz)
Lynchburg (WXL92 – 162.550 MHz)
South Boston (KJY86 – 162.525 MHz)
Hinton (WXM72 – 162.425 MHz)
Water Level Forecasts: Water level forecast services will be
degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will
remain on https:/water.noaa.gov/wfo/rnk through this period.
Local graphical forecast maps that are hosted in numerous places
on www.weather.gov/rnk will not be updated.
This includes all maps on the Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook page (https:/www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rnk), the
majority of the graphics on the Briefing page
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/emer), some experimental fire
applications (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/fire), climate graphs
for Blacksburg Forecast Area
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/climatePlots), and the Weather
Story (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/weatherstory).
The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls
and additional functions that can be completed without AWIPS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-014-
017>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
508.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/JCB
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM... Blaes
AVIATION...JCB
EQUIPMENT...AMS/JCBHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1111 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 VAZ011-014-017>020-022>024-032>034-WVZ043-044-507-508-151030- Giles-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 1111 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Excessive rainfall from scattered thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding Wednesday, that may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks and threaten nearby roads and bridges. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report flooding and any resulting damage. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015-016-WVZ042-151030- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson- Carroll-Mercer- 1111 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Excessive rainfall from scattered thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding Wednesday, that may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks and threaten nearby roads and bridges. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report flooding and any resulting damage. NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-151030- Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania- Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 1111 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Excessive rainfall from scattered thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding Wednesday, that may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks and threaten nearby roads and bridges. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast today. Thunderstorms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, and hail up to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area. VAZ035-151030- Amherst- 1111 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Excessive rainfall from scattered thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding Wednesday, that may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks and threaten nearby roads and bridges. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast today. Thunderstorms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, and hail up to the size of quarters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are requested to report hail of any size, as well as any damage caused by thunderstorm winds in their area.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
824 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM Flash Flood 2 S Mountain Lake 37.33N 80.55W
05/13/2025 Giles VA 911 Call Center
A mudslide occurred that completely closed
Mountain Lake Road.
&&
PWPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
855 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0138 PM Flash Flood 2 SE Montvale 37.36N 79.71W
05/13/2025 Bedford VA 911 Call Center
A mudslide occurred that closed the road at
the 2300 block of Quarterwood Road.
&&
PWPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
858 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0251 PM Flash Flood Goodview 37.21N 79.72W
05/13/2025 Bedford VA 911 Call Center
Water flowed and closed the road near the
intersection of Goodview Road and Rexford
Drive.
&&
PWPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
903 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM Flood 2 N Goode 37.39N 79.38W
05/13/2025 Bedford VA 911 Call Center
Water crossed the road on Crockett Road
close to the intersection with Cifax Road.
&&
PWPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
910 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 PM Flash Flood 1 NW Chamblissburg 37.26N 79.73W
05/13/2025 Bedford VA 911 Call Center
A creek overflowed its banks and flooded
Morgans Mill Road close to the intersection
with Stewartsville Road.
&&
PWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1129 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
NCZ005-006-VAZ043-044-141600-
Rockingham NC-Caswell NC-Henry VA-Pittsylvania VA-
1129 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
ROCKINGHAM...NORTHWESTERN CASWELL...SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE THROUGH NOON
EDT...
At 1128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Monroeton, or near Reidsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
and Stoneville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3625 7988 3627 7992 3663 7992 3663 7948
3646 7928 3624 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 215DEG 16KT 3629 7978
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
22The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:17 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree on Quick Road.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree on Blanch Road.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree on Slade Road.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree on Culver Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1258266, 1258267, 1258269, 1258268.