Flash Flood and Hail in Nebraska, May 14 to 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1249 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) exists for severe storms this
afternoon into the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds are
the main threat with a relatively minor threat for tornadoes.

- Temperatures will return to more seasonal levels through the
weekend with cooler than normal temperatures possible Monday and
Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances will continue Sunday through Tuesday,
however, forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

H5 pattern tonight has a closed low over mid Ohio and Tennessee
river valleys. Ridging was present north of this low and
extended into southern portions of the Hudson Bay of Canada.
Ridging was present from the Caribbean north into New England.
Further west, closed low pressure was located over southern
Idaho with a trough extending south into Southern California.
Downstream of this trough, Satellite imagery overnight is
indicating a broad shield of convective cloudiness extended from
western Colorado into Wyoming eastern Montana and the western
Dakotas. At the surface tonight, an elongated area of low
pressure extended from southeastern Wyoming into southwestern
Kansas. Along this low pressure, a pseudo dryline was present
from just east of Cheyenne, to near Elkhart Kansas. North of the
low, a cold front was present from southeastern Wyoming into
far NW Nebraska and western South Dakota. Over the past couple
of hours...thunderstorms had developed over northeastern Wyoming
into far SW South Dakota and this activity has stayed just off
to the northwest of the forecast area. Across western and north
central Nebraska overnight, skies were mostly clear and 3 AM CDT
temperatures were in the lower 60s across western and north
central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue overnight
across the area and the latest NAM12 and HRRR develop low
cloudiness across northwestern Kansas and SW Nebraska toward
12z. As for fog potential, boundary layer conditions do not
totally saturate overnight and given the sustained dryness we
have had in SW Nebraska over the past couple of weeks, fog
potential appears low attm. Also, the HRRR and NAM12 solns do
not support fog potential as well. Over the next 12 to 24 hours,
precipitation chances and severe potential later today and
tonight is the main forecast issues. By early afternoon, the
latest high res NAM12 and 00Z HRRR solns pushes mid to upper 50s
dew points west to a corridor, extending from Hayes and western
Lincoln county, north northwest into Sheridan county. By early
afternoon, and with surface heating, the cap will weaken enough
to support storm initiation. The latest CAMS have decent
agreement on location of initiation which is along a corridor
from north central Cherry county south to western Lincoln
county. This activity will then intensify and track east during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms may
reach severe limits with large hail on the southern flank of the
activity where supercell potential appears to be the highest.
Gusty winds appear to be the main threat transitioning north,
and am expecting a more linear mode to convection. ATTM the
threat for tornadoes appears fairly low given limited low level
helicities and the "noisy" nature of the expected convection and
lack of discrete storms especially into the early evening hours
when the low level jet begins to strengthen. Later in the
evening, as the main upper level forcing enters the high plains,
a secondary area of convection is expected to develop over
northeastern Colorado. This activity will be fairly fast moving
with a nice cold pool to force this activity east. Hazards with
this secondary area of convection will be strong winds. Like
last night, the 00z HRRR and 4km NAM soln have a strong wind
signal with its simulated reflectivity. Thunderstorm activity
will quickly lift northeast during the mid to late evening
hours, effectively exiting the area during the late evening
hours. The H5 shortwave will lift into South Dakota on Thursday,
slowly tracking into western Minnesota Thursday night. Westerly
winds on the southern periphery of the H5 low and surface low
will push low level moisture well east of the area on Thursday
and will lead to windy conditions across the area. There is gust
potential up to 45 MPH Thursday afternoon over far northern
Nebraska. ATTM the core of highest winds appear to be over
southern South Dakota. With the drier air in place and windy
conditions, we could see some elevated fire weather conditions
in SW Nebraska Thursday afternoon. Across northern Nebraska,
couldn't rule out a stray shower Thursday, however, given the
lack of low level moisture, scaled pops back to low end chance
and slight chance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A brief lull in precipitation chances will occur Friday night
into Saturday behind the exiting upper level low over the Great
Lakes and low amplitude ridging across the central and northern
Plains. Beginning Saturday night, the pattern will transition to
southwesterly aloft as a trough of low pressure enters the
western CONUS. Mid level warm air advection will increase in
advance of this feature and couldn't rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm Saturday night. The upper level trough will
approach the Four Corners Sunday night into Monday, increasing
the threat for thunderstorms. Good low level moisture advection
east of the trough, will result in dew points reaching the
middle 50s to lower 60s across the area. The combination of low
level moisture and a stream of mid level disturbances, will lead
to a continued threat for thunderstorms across the area. This
threat will continue through Tuesday as the main upper level
trough lifts east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Believe, given the degree of moisture return and southwesterly
flow aloft, active weather appears likely Sunday through Tuesday
across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
region. Some storms could become severe with large hail and strong,
erratic winds being the primary threats. Expect reductions in
visibility as well due to falling rain and some light fog. Showers
and storms continue through early Thursday morning before slowly
dissipating. Showers and stratus may linger a bit longer across the
north as the low stalls across the northern Plains and moisture
continues to filter into the region. Strong northwest winds also
return on Thursday with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1044 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-151545-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1044 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 /944 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon across the
outlook area. At this time, the main severe threat is generally east
of a line from Valentine to Sutherland. Large hail and damaging
winds are the main severe threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. The threat for severe storms will decrease after midnight
CT across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty west winds are possible Thursday afternoon across the area.
Wind gusts up to 50 MPH are possible over northern Nebraska.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday night over northern Nebraska. At
this time, the threat for severe storms is low.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night through Monday night. At
this time, the threat for severe storms is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.