Dense Fog in New Jersey, May 14 to 15, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
Issued by National Weather Service New York NY
250 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger across the Mid Atlantic through the
Thursday, resulting in mild, humid, and showery conditions.
Brief period of ridging comes in Thursday Night, with a warm
front coming through on Friday morning. Unsettled weather
continues through Saturday until a strong cold front comes
through on Saturday Night. Drier high pressure will settle into
the region by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cloudy, mild, showery, and humid conditions persisting through
Thursday.

A decaying upper low over the Midwest will slowly push a
negatively tilted trough axis slowly through our region locally
through Thursday. Weak surface low pressure will remain across
the Mid Atlantic through this period as well.

The main round of moderate to heavy rain showers will continue
to impact portions of central and northern New Jersey and far
eastern Pennsylvania through the remainder of the afternoon. For
these areas, an additional 0.5-1" of rainfall is possible,
potentially leading to localized minor flooding. Elsewhere, a
few isolated showers/storms are possible. Temperatures remaining
mainly in the upper 50s and 60s, and in the 70s across Delmarva.

A lull in shower activity is expected overnight, however areas
of fog are anticipated to develop across much of the area along
with continued low clouds and light winds. Humid with lows in
the mid 50s (north) to mid 60s (south).

For Thursday, the low clouds and fog will dissipate as the
morning progresses, and some breaks of sun may even occur by
afternoon, especially across Delmarva. With the mid level
trough axis remaining in the vicinity and the weak surface low
nearby as well, some diurnal instability should result in some
isolated to scattered showers/storms into the afternoon. With
PWats around 1.25-1.50", heavy downpours will be possible as
well as gusty winds and small hail. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely, but can't totally rule one out. High temperatures will
be mainly in the 70s and a bit muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A brief period of quiet weather comes Thursday night as a brief
period of ridging moves overhead. Skies may actually clear out
some Thursday evening into the first half of Thursday Night
before a warm front moves in late Thursday/early Friday morning.
Mainly dry through Thursday Night though but still mild, with
lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.

A warm front lifts through Friday morning, bringing some light
showers as warm air advection ramps up. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the 80s on Friday, with more
instability in place as well. Forcing looks rather weak though
with ridging not far away and only a weak shortwave coming in
and no advancing cold front until Saturday. Thus, thinking it
will be just unsettled with scattered showers, primarily in the
afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed in. It's possible a
decaying MCS impacts the region in the morning sometime Friday,
but the severe threat with this would be low. Showers diminish
in coverage with the loss of daytime heating on Friday Night,
but still cannot rule out some light sprinkles through the
night. Mild pattern continues with low to mid 60s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday looks to be the day to monitor for any severe weather.
Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging
from the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure
slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold
front advancing towards and eventually through the region.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite
muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order
of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking
any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and
evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging
wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of
uncertainty being a few days out. Coverage in showers and
thunderstorms diminishes into the night with the loss of daytime
heating and passage of the front.

Sunday and beyond actually looks pretty nice for now. With the
front coming through, it should result in dry conditions and
seasonable weather to close out the weekend and start next week.
Perhaps a little gusty on Sunday, but nothing that looks too
significant.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...Mainly prevailing IFR ceilings with some MVFR
possible at times. MVFR visibility possible in BR. A few
isolated showers possible. East to northeast winds near 10 kts.
High confidence on MVFR to IFR prevailing, but low confidence
in details.

Tonight...IFR conditions expected with LIFR likely developing.
East to northeast winds 5 kts or less. High confidence in
prevailing IFR.

Thursday...IFR and LIFR early. Visibility improvement by 15-18Z,
with ceilings scattering out to VFR by 18-21Z. ENE winds 5 kts
or less early, shifting southerly around 5-10 kts as conditions
improve. Isolated SHRA/TSRA after 18Z. Low confidence on timing
of improvement.

Outlook...

Restrictions possible Thursday night. Conditions expected
improve for Friday and Saturday with prevailing VFR likely
during the day, aside from any showers and thunderstorms move
in. VFR conditions look to come Saturday Night and beyond.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic coastal
waters through tonight, and through Thursday morning north of
Ocean City, NJ. The Delaware Bay advisory expired at noon.

Winds will diminish considerably this afternoon, however seas
will remain elevated near 4-7 feet through tonight into early
Thursday morning. Areas of fog possible tonight, with visibility
near 1 NM. Some isolated showers/storms possible Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sub-SCA conditions should then take hold by Thursday evening
and continue through Sunday However, showers and spotty
thunderstorms may continue to be a risk through Saturday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for the tidal Delaware
River for the high tide late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Elsewhere, no additional coastal flooding is expected.

Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight high
tides Thursday night and Friday night as well, especially along
the upper reaches of the tidal Delaware River. Additional
advisories may be needed.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Thursday for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ450>452.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ453>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
AVIATION...Hoeflich/Staarmann
MARINE...Hoeflich/Staarmann
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staarmann

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