A trough over the Ohio valley region produced a wave of scattered to numerous showers and storms during the afternoon through mid-evening hours across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina. Isolated reports of flash flooding, downed trees and hail were reported.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A trough over the Ohio valley region produced a wave of scattered to numerous showers and storms during the afternoon through mid-evening hours across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina. Isolated reports of flash flooding, downed trees and hail were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:02 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 302 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will move through the region through tonight. Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Convection thus far today has been sub-severe, with the strongest gust of 30 kts observed at KRDU earlier. As this broken line of showers and storms move east into the I-95 corridor, there remains the potential for a few isolated cells to grow strong to severe (CAPE is forecast to reach 3000 j/kg over this vicinity in the next few hours). Outflow via sea-breeze induced convection along the coast from earlier is also racing towards our broken line of storms. As such, outflow collisions in the Coastal Plain may also briefly enhance updrafts the next few hours. The main threats remain isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some larger hail. Overall though, the severe risk remains low today and this evening. CAMs are still generating some additional showers/elevated convection later tonight through early Thursday morning. However, the bulk of precipitation should wane with loss of heating this evening. Otherwise, expect patchy to locally dense fog to form across northern areas again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM Wednesday... 12Z guidance this morning has done little in terms of changing our thinking about how Thursday will evolve. There remains uncertainty wrt to coverage Thursday afternoon, especially given the influence of the approaching upper ridge. If convection does reach central NC, it still appears to be most likely over the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain later in the day. Decided to maintain just chance POPs in this vicinity centered around mid to late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, the description of potential hazards and associated rationale remains accurate from the previous discussion listed below. Previous discussion from 430 AM... Downstream of a mid/upr-level cyclone that will develop and deepen across the nrn Plains and upr MS Valley, progressive shortwave ridging from the lwr MS to OH Valleys at the start of the period will migrate ewd and across the Middle and South Atlantic through 12Z Fri. Seasonably strong nwly to wnwly mid-level flow will result and prevail across the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas, as will warm air advection maximized in the 700-850 mb layer that will precede the arrival of an extensive elevated mixed layer plume from the srn Plains and Mexican Plateau. At the surface, a warm front will strengthen and retreat newd across the OH Valley and Virginias, while broad troughing will otherwise remain across the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas. The aforementioned WAA regime may support an ongoing area of elevated convection over or near cntl NC Thu morning, before moving ewd and offshore through midday. That WAA regime, including through the low-levels with the aforementioned surface warm frontal retreat, will likely spread nwd across the Virginias coincident with daytime heating. A separate area of convection will probably result and develop along and east of the Blue Ridge in VA, with other, more- isolated cells across the NC ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain - all with a generally sewd storm motion that would favor slight to low chance PoP roughly along and north of I-40 during the afternoon- evening. Forecast hodographs are elongated and clockwise-curved particularly between 2-5 km, with weaker flow in the lowest kilometer. Associated shear profiles combined with upr-end moderate instability (ie. 2000-2500 J/kg), owing to the presence of steep mid- level lapse rates within the EML, atop a strongly-heated (into the mid/upr 80s F) and unseasonably moist boundary layer, would favor supercells with large hail (some significant >2") and damaging wind gusts. While convective and associated debris clouds should clear through midnight, a plume of mid/high-level moisture will overspread the region Fri morning, with low temperatures mostly mid-upr 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 500 AM Tuesday... The models are in good agreement with the progression of a mid/upr- level cyclone across the Great Lakes Fri through the weekend, with increasing model spread regarding how quickly it moves across the Northeast and lingers near or offshore Atlantic Canada through the middle of next week. While it progresses across the Great Lakes early in the period, glancing height falls, the stream of an energetic srn branch jet, and the continued presence and influence of an EML plume, will all result across NC Fri-Sat. A high amplitude ridge will then progress slowly ewd from the Plains and MS Valley Sun to the Southeast and Great Lakes through early-mid next week. At the surface, a lee trough over the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Fri-Sat will precede the passage of a lead, weak cold frontal passage in cntl NC Sat night. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will follow and settle south across cntl NC probably Sun night. That front will then likely stall and become quasi-stationary from the srn Appalachians nwwd to the upr MS Valley early to mid next week, equatorward of high pressure that will extend from e-cntl Canada to the Middle Atlantic. It appears increasingly-likely that the dry and capping EML influence, and deep layer wly to wswly flow that will include a considerable downslope component in the lee of the Appalachians, will limit the probability of deep convection over cntl NC Fri-Sat. The exception will be primarily over the far nrn NC Piedmont, where height falls and forcing for ascent will be maximized at the base of the passing cyclone across the Great Lakes. The airmass over cntl NC will otherwise be hot, with high temperatures both days in the upr 80s to lwr-mid 90s. Progressively less hot, but still unseasonably warm conditions, will follow in the post-frontal regime across cntl NC Sun through mid- week, along with low precipitation chances that will be shunted swwd and nearer the stalled frontal zone across the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 127 PM Wednesday... Scattered showers and storms have blossomed across central NC early this afternoon. This activity should continue to migrate eastward with time through this evening. Expect brief periods of sub-VFR conditions at all TAF sites if impacted by any convection, with the best chances being at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI through this evening. Otherwise, additional showers and elevated convection will be possible overnight, with best chances at KINT/KGSO. Expecting fog/stratus to re-develop tonight and possibly impact the northern terminals. Any fog/stratus should lift by early to mid Thursday morning. Outlook: Chances for diurnal scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti/MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Luchetti/CBL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1107 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 NCZ021-022-038>040-042-073>078-083>086-088-089-151515- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Johnston-Stanly- Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland-Sampson- 1107 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind and severe hail are the primary threats. Some minor flooding is also possible, especially in areas where creeks and streams are already high from recent heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>011-023>028-041-043-151515- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Wilson- 1107 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind and severe hail are the primary threats. Some minor flooding is also possible, especially in areas where creeks and streams are already high from recent heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Although coverage may be limited, any thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through early evening will be capable of producing large hail, some up to two to two and half inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1135 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
NCZ022-023-141630-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-
1135 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN GUILFORD AND PORTIONS OF ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM
EDT...
At 1130 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from near Summerfield to Lake Townsend and Monticello,
moving north at 20 mph. Other showers with heavy rain were located
just southwest of Burlington, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Very heavy rain up to 1 inch in 30 minutes, wind gusts to
30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is expected.
Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Elon, McLeansville, Summerfield,
Gibsonville, Stokesdale, and Haw River.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7957 3624 7953 3625 7953 3624 7927
3588 7926 3609 8004 3626 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 194DEG 19KT 3618 7972
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
PWBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025
NCZ007-141815-
Person NC-
115 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PERSON COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...
At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
western and northern Person County, the strongest near Alton, or 7
miles northwest of Roxboro, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Roxboro, Concord, Bethel Hill, Bushy Fork, Hyco Lake, Moriah, Mayo
Reservoir, Hyco Marina, and Surl.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7880 3624 7915 3654 7914 3654 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 188DEG 21KT 3650 7904
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
PWBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
133 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025
NCZ025-041-141830-
Durham NC-Wake NC-
133 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT WAKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near RDU International and Morrisville, moving north-
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Rainfall rates in excess of 1.5 inches in 30 minutes may
produce flash flooding. Frequent lightning is occurring
with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Wake Forest, Garner, Zebulon, RDU
International, Apex, Holly Springs, and Morrisville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Take shelter indoors until the storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 3612 7881 3609 7881 3607 7878 3608 7869
3599 7846 3594 7839 3593 7835 3591 7835
3590 7831 3587 7828 3585 7827 3561 7899
3585 7891 3587 7891 3587 7895 3614 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 193DEG 12KT 3583 7884
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PWBThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:17 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and power lines were reported down.
Quarter size hail reported.
A creek was overflowing, inundating a residence basement with around 5-6 inches of water.
The USGS gauge on Morgan Creek near White Cross reached minor flood stage and peaked at 8.1 ft.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1254556, 1254554, 1254548, 1254552.