A complex of severe thunderstorms that initially developed over Wisconsin the previous evening tracked all the way to the western New York area through the night. The line developed ahead of an occluded front within a unstable and sheared environment.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
A complex of severe thunderstorms that initially developed over Wisconsin the previous evening tracked all the way to the western New York area through the night. The line developed ahead of an occluded front within a unstable and sheared environment. As the storms tracked into western New York, conditions became less favorable to maintain the strength of the storms. However, upon initially entering the western New York area, the thunderstorms were still strong to severe before weakening to just below severe thunderstorm criteria further east.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:52 AM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 252 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A broad closed low over the Upper Midwest today will gradually cross the Great Lakes through the weekend, resulting in several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through at least Saturday night. Much cooler and generally drier weather behind this system expected to last through the first half of next week before becoming unsettled again by later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deep closed low will slowly meander into the Upper Midwest from the Northern Plains today, then begin to pivot into the western Great Lakes tonight. An occluded front well out ahead of this system's center will traverse Ontario Province through the day, with the corresponding warm and cold frontal boundaries closely trailing one another further south. This will force a slowly decaying area of convection into the region from the west early this morning. Increasingly diffuse boundary forcing, waning instability and a decoupled BL should preclude most if not all potential for severe thunderstorms, though an isolated stronger wind gust or two cannot be completely ruled out. The initial line of showers and storms will continue to diminish as it moves east of the Genesee Valley after daybreak. The trailing cold front and drier airmass will arrive in WNY by the afternoon, though out ahead of it in the warm sector there will likely be additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Greatest coverage will be east of Erie/Niagara county with enough shear present for a Marginal severe threat. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid today, though stiffening onshore flow off Lake Erie will keep the Buffalo Metro and surrounding areas cooler. A period of areawide dry weather tonight as diurnally forced showers from the afternoon taper off. Another pair of frontal boundaries then tied to the western closed low will then begin to encroach on the region again, with a warm front likely bringing another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms late tonight. Again, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with this activity, though the poor timing should keep the vast majority of any convection elevated. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A closed low will rotate across our region this period, bringing unsettled weather and cooling conditions. To start Saturday moderate rain showers associated with a warm front draped over our region will favor eastern zones, while an approaching cold front will drive another line of showers and thunderstorms across our region. An early day passage of the cold front may limit the severe threat, with marginal instability (MUCAPE 300-600 J/KG) over the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region and 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing to 40-45 knots and steepening lapse rates building thunderstorms to strong to severe limits early afternoon...this before the cold front clears the region of downpours, humidity and mild temperatures. The main severe threats will be damaging wind gusts with the lower risk for small hail. Behind the cold front a developing lake breeze will bring increasing amounts of sunshine and a gusty southwest breeze to the Buffalo region. Along this lake breeze boundary a few showers or garden variety thunderstorms will be possible through the evening hours. Convection will wane Saturday night with the loss of instability, but we'll still have scattered activity overnight...with likely PoPs Sunday east of Lake Ontario as the upper level low slowly passes over the region. Drier air will bring some clearing skies to WNY Sunday night...with this drier airmass also diminishing the shower threat east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fair weather Monday and Tuesday as a narrow ridge of high pressure squeezes between a stalled closed low to the east over northern New England and an upstream closed low over the Rockies. Unsettled weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with multiple shortwaves collecting to form another closed low over the Great Lakes, with cool conditions continuing. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A closed low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest from the Northern Plains will send an occluded front across southern Ontario today. A line of strong thunderstorms along this front will inevitably reach western NY early this morning, though it continues to diminish in strength as it moves east of Michigan. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions expected at KBUF/KIAG/KJHW between 09z and 11z with this line before it moves east to the Genesee Valley (KROC). Mainly VFR will prevail out ahead of it, though a warm frontal boundary out ahead of the main line is causing more widely scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms to develop, a few of which could reach as far east as KROC. PROB30 groups have been placed in the TAFs to cover this as confidence in timing and placement of this activity is much lower. The line of showers will shift east of KROC and continue to decay after 13z. There will likely be a brief period of light stratiform rain in its wake, as well as a slightly more persistent MVFR stratocu across Western NY. While this is expected to clear with mainly VFR after about 16z, additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development is possible from the Genesee Valley eastward through the afternoon hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move back in from the west tonight with restrictions possible, though this will likely occur after the 06z TAF cycle. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Restrictions likely at times with periodic showers and thunderstorms. Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers east of KROC. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Generally light winds and waves across the lakes this morning ahead of warm front and a line of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. Southwest winds on Lake Erie may increase to near 15kts for a few hours following this activity, then diminish again later this afternoon. Drier weather expected over the waters this afternoon through early tonight. Another pair of frontal boundaries will then cause showers and thunderstorms to move back in from the southwest, with a drying trend first across Lake Erie late Saturday morning, with Lake Ontario to follow Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Southwest winds on both lakes are expected to increase by Saturday afternoon with SCA conditions likely on both lakes through at least a portion of Sunday, with the east end of Lake Ontario possibly lasting into Sunday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...PP NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 NYZ001-010-019-020-085-170745- Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms early this morning, and again late tonight. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-170745- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-170745- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms early this morning, and again late tonight. The main risk will be strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043-044-063-064-SLZ024-170745- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today and again late tonight. The main risk will be strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday. The main risk will be strong wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ002>005-011>014-021-170745- Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston- Ontario-Allegany- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ045-065-SLZ022-170745- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- 337 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday. The main risk will be strong wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 441 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-161130- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 441 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ... Strong Thunderstorms This Morning ... A line of strong thunderstorms is bearing down upon Western New York this morning. Within this activity is frequent lightning, heavy downpours and strong wind gusts. The stronger storms will reach Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Hamburg and Jamestown between 5 AM and 6 AM. This activity, weakening farther inland will pass across the region through 8 AM. Downpours of rain within these storms will lower visibility this morning, and cause ponding of water on low lying or poor drainage roadways. Thomas
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:42 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree downed on Prospect Road in Westfield.
Downed power lines on Lakewood Avenue in Buffalo.
A few trees downed in the Town of Napoli.
Report of a few trees downed on wires in Attica.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1260501, 1260504, 1260505, 1260510.