On Tuesday April 29, a cold front crossed the region causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Conditions and timing were favorable ahead of the front as it approached the Buffalo forecast area with CAPE values of 1,000+ J/kg and bulk shear values of 40+ kts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
On Tuesday April 29, a cold front crossed the region causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Conditions and timing were favorable ahead of the front as it approached the Buffalo forecast area with CAPE values of 1,000+ J/kg and bulk shear values of 40+ kts. Numerous reports of wind damage and severe hail were received for areas south and southeast of Lake Ontario.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 29, 1:26 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage early tonight...it will become
notably cooler for Wednesday with temperatures a solid 20 degrees
lower than those from today. Canadian high pressure will support a
wealth of sunshine though that will help to temper the cooler
weather. A large...slow moving storm system will then encourage
increasingly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms for later
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather into Early This Evening...
A cold front will push through the region early this evening. While
a mid level cap through early afternoon was helping to suppress
convection...increasingly unstable air ahead of this boundary will
combine with 40 kts of shear and enhanced lift from a 130 kt over
srn Ontario to promote some showers and possible strong to severe
thunderstorm activity between 4 and 9 PM. The primary severe
weather threat from this convection will be straight line winds...
but given the highly sheared environment...discrete organized
cells out ahead of the front will have the potential to produce
isolated tornadoes. In both cases...the highest risk for severe
weather will be across the western Southern Tier...Genesee
valley and western Finger Lakes regions.
In the wake of the front this evening...the showers and
thunderstorms will quickly end from the northwest with partial
clearing overnight. After a very mild night last night (Mon nt)...
temps will tumble into the 30s for most areas. These values will be
very similar to those experienced on Sunday night.
Canadian high pressure will settle across the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday...and this will lead to wall to wall sunshine but with
temperatures only topping out in the 50s.
Starlit skies Wednesday evening will then give way to some cirrus
and alto-cu overnight...as a developing H925-70 baroclinic zone (ie
warm front) will take shape over Lake Erie and western Pennsylvania.
Lastly...I'd like to thank those that have found my discussions and
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past 34 years have been a GREAT ride. Looking forward to retirement.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next potent shortwave trough will round the base on an incoming
longwave trough Thursday tracking east across the Upper Great Lakes
supporting surface low pressure to track northeast across Illinois
and into the Central Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night.
Initially a warm front will lift across the area throughout the day
Thursday supporting showers and thunderstorms. A few downpours may
be heavy at times due to the combination of a 45kt low level jet and
moisture from the Gulf advects north and increases PWAT values
towards an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half.
As the shortwave trough lifts northeast across the eastern Great
Lakes Friday, the cold front associated with the aforementioned
surface low will sweep across the region. As such, showers and
embedded thunderstorms will pass across the region, with the best
location for thunder lying across the eastern portions of the area
due to better daytime heating and destabilization. Scattered showers
will then linger Friday night through Saturday night as the trough
passes across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cyclonic flow will linger through Sunday, especially across the
Northeast will support plenty of diurnal cumulus clouds. Upper level
ridging will then build east across the Great Lakes region Monday
and Tuesday, supporting a broad surface high and the likelihood for
dry weather. However, there continues to remain hints of a cut off
low to develop supporting Atlantic moisture to advect into the
region, which would lead to a more pessimistic forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place into this evening...although there
will be an increasing risk for showers and strong thunderstorms.
Short lived MVFR conditions along with potential wind gusts over 50
knots will accompany the stronger storms. The highest chance for the
strong convection will be over the western Srn Tier...Genesee valley
and western Finger Lakes region. Through this evening...many of the
TAF sites will also experience wind gusts to 30 to 35 knots.
In the wake of the convection...skies will partially clear
overnight. There will be some areas that experience a few hours of
MVFR cigs though...mainly across the western Southern Tier and also
east of Lake Ontario.
Canadian high pressure will then support VFR weather with notably
weaker winds on Wednesday.
Outlook...
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with showers developing.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.
Sunday...VFR weather.
&&
.MARINE...
Fresh to strong southwesterlies will be in place into early this
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread small craft
advisories are in place...but are scheduled to drop off during the
course of tonight as winds and waves lower in the wake of the front.
Moderate northwesterlies will then be in place early Wednesday ahead
of an area of Canadian high pressure. These winds will back to the
southwest in the afternoon. Waves will average below small craft
advisory criteria.
Light winds and negligible waves can then be expected for Wednesday
night...as the aforementioned area of high pressure will move
through the region.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-
041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
LOZ043>045.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSHHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 449 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 NYZ003>008-013-014-021-300900- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston- Ontario-Allegany- 449 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to blossom this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. Most of the region is under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado are all threats with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-300900- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 449 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to blossom this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-300900- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- Southern Erie- 449 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to blossom this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. Most of the region is under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail, an isolated tornado and flash flooding are all threats with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the primary threats for this event. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-300900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 449 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to blossom this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging winds are the primary threat for this event. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:27 UTC.
43 thunderstorm wind, 13 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and powerlines downed in several towns in the northern portion of the county.
Golf ball sized hail reported in Warsaw.
Large trees uprooted in Covington.
Hail measuring 1.25 inches in Covington.
Trees, powerlines, and power poles downed in the Town of York.
Swath of snapped power poles on Route 36 north of York.
Trees and wires downed in Caledonia.
Large tree downed on a house.
Trees, powerlines, and power poles downed.
Warsaw New York State Mesonet.
Numerous trees and powerlines downed in most of the towns in the northern half of Wyoming County.
Trees downed in the Town of Irondequoit.
Photo on social media of half dollar sized hail in Honeoye Falls.
Trees downed in the Town of Webster.
Large tree downed blocking County Route 39.
Large tree downed blocking Route 444.
Tree downed on house.
Tree downed blocking Victoria Lane.
Large tree downed blocking most of Sand Hill Rd.
Tree downed blocking roadway.
Large tree downed partially blocking Route 96.
Tree downed on house on East Ave.
Power pole downed on car.
Tree downed on house on West Main St.
Power pole snapped due to thunderstorm winds.
A garage was destroyed.
Tree downed on a house and powerlines.
Tree downed on an unoccupied car.
The National Weather Service conducted a storm survey to examine damage in the Town of Phelps in Ontario County from April 29, 2025. Extensive hardwood tree damage was evident along McBurney Road just to the north of the New York State Thruway approximately two miles west of State Route 88. Tree damage continued down McBurney Road until about half of a mile before Falkey Road. Tree damage was evident along both sides of Stryker Road to the north of McBurney Road with multiple hardwood trees losing numerous large branches. In addition, there was extensive structural damage to multiple buildings on a farm at the corner of McBurney Road and Stryker Road. This included a large barn that was fully shifted off of its foundation. Another barn lost the majority of its metal roof. An old farm house adjacent to one of the barns experienced total structural collapse of the concrete block walls on two sides.
Further up Stryker Road, a residence experienced the partial loss of roof flashing material and the total loss of a garage. Debris from the garage and roof were strewn across Stryker Road to the east-northeast of the former structure and into the trees about one-quarter of a mile away.
Tree damage continued to the north and west along Stryker Road and along County Road 25. This included the uprooting of multiple hardwood trees in a mobile home park. Two of these very large trees fell onto residences in the mobile home park.
Based upon the lack of a concentrated damage path within a large swath of damage and by virtue of the fact the damage area was less than 2.5 miles in diameter, the National Weather Service storm survey team determined the damage was a result of straight line winds associated with a microburst.
Peak winds were estimated at 95 mph, the damage path length was 1.5 miles long and 1,850 yards wide. One injury was reported with this damage from the thunderstorms.
Roof damage occurred to several barns.
Tree on a house in McBurney road in Phelps.
Tree downed on a house with roof damage on Mary Ave.
Large tree downed blocking Route 88.
Tree downed on mobile home.
Large tree downed blocking Maryland Rd.
Trees and powerlines downed along Stephens St.
Tree down on mobile home with significant damage. One occupant injured.
Large tree downed blocking all of Cedar Swamp Rd.
Tree downed on Church Street.
Tree downed on Church Street.
Multiple trees and wires downed in the village of Port Byron and the town of Mentz.
Trees and powerlines downed.
Trees and powerlines downed.
Trees and powerlines downed.
Tree and several powerlines downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1255870, 1255871, 1255872, 1255873, 1255874, 1255875, 1255876, 1257725, 1255877, 1255878, 1255879, 1257726, 1257727, 1257728, 1257729, 1255880, 1255881, 1255882, 1255883, 1255884, 1255885, 1255886, 1255887, 1255888, 1255889, 1255890, 1255891, 1255892, 1255893, 1255894, 1255921, 1257730, 1255922, 1255923, 1255924, 1255925, 1255926, 1255927, 1255928, 1263453, and more.