Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, April 29 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
646 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected through
  Wednesday evening with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple
  of tornadoes all possible.

- In addition to the severe threat, there will be a threat for
  flooding through tomorrow with much of North Texas receiving
  1.5-3" of rain with isolated amounts as high as 5-6".

- Periodic storm chances will continue through Friday with several
  chances for severe weather through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

As of the time of writing this discussion, a near stationary cold
front stretches from the southern portions of West Texas up
through southwestern portions of Oklahoma. The dry line is also
sitting well to our west where it is expected to overtake the
stationary front. Thunderstorms have developed along this feature
and are currently moving across West Texas. While the initial
storm mode has been discrete, mean storm motion will be near
parallel with the aforementioned boundary, leading to quick
upscale growth. This will result in the potential for several
bowing segments which will mainly pose a damaging wind threat with
a lesser threat for large hail. This could potentially impact the
northwestern counties in our coverage area, generally from a
Breckenridge to Decatur to Gainesville line. Storm mode will
largely dictate the severe threats through this evening and
overnight tonight. The tornado threat may ramp up coinciding with
the development of the low level jet should any discrete right
moving supercells persist through the evening, although this
potential seems fairly low given straight hodographs and general
storm motions along the stalled boundary. There could also be
embedded supercells within any line segments that manage to
develop and move through this evening and overnight. The best
timing for severe weather is largely unchanged. A Tornado Watch is
in effect across portions of western North Texas until 1 AM.
Another point of focus will be the potential for multiple rounds
of rainfall overnight tonight across our northwest. This could
lead to some flooding issues and will be watched closely. All in
all, it would be a great idea to pay extra attention to the
weather through the rest of this evening as conditions evolve. Be
sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings!

Storms will likely persist late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning as a shortwave lifts and moves across the Southern Plains.
The overall severe threat will depend on the organization of cold
pools as convection moves across the Red River. But in general we
should see diminished severe weather potential with this
activity, with perhaps isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms - mainly for wind and hail. This threat will likely
increase through Wednesday afternoon which appears to be our best
shot at more widespread severe weather across all of North and
Central Texas. Timing for this activity will be anywhere from 12
PM to 8 PM through Wednesday. All hazards will be possible through
Wednesday afternoon and evening, which includes large hail,
damaging winds, and a low tornado threat. This will also include a
flood threat, confined to our Flood Watch that will continue into
Thursday morning across North Texas. Rainfall totals will range
between 1.5 to 3 inches with a low chance for isolated higher
amounts upwards of 5 to 6 inches.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 302 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/
/Thursday Onward/

Behind the departing shortwave, near zonal flow will prevail with
embedded disturbances expected within the flow late week and into
the weekend. A weak front will gradually sag southward into
Central Texas Thursday afternoon with a dryline feature shifting
east as well. Most of the day should be largely quiet in the wake
of Wednesday's activity and a lack of stronger forcing, but the
environment will be quite favorable for severe storms in Central
Texas if storms are able to develop. Current PoPs of 20-30% have
been maintained in this region, with large hail the primary hazard
as guidance is still depicting somewhere near ~4000 J/kg MLCAPE
and steep lapse rates. Any ongoing storms Thursday afternoon will
weaken and dissipate in the evening hours with loss of heating.

For Friday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to again develop
with a reinvigorated boundary acting as a focus for storm
development. These may be strong to marginally severe in the
morning on Friday, shifting south and east as the day continues
and into the evening hours. The afternoon convection across
Central Texas would be the most robust with a supportive
environment once again of scattered severe storms with large hail
and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy downpours will also
result in a localized flooding threat, particularly in areas that
received convection in the preceding days. Beyond Friday, the
weekend will be fairly quiet, in a relative sense, with broad
high pressure dominating the eastern CONUS. Our southern and
western counties will be on the fringes of this larger scale
subsidence, which may still allow for scattered showers and storms
with a limited severe threat during this time.

A more potent upper level system will arrive sometime early next
week as high pressure shifts east, allowing for ample Gulf
moisture to return to the region. This will result in widespread
storm chances once again that will have at least a low severe
threat based on current guidance.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR ceilings, VCTS/TSRA potential into tomorrow.

VFR ceilings will persist across all TAF sites through the rest
of the evening and through a portion of the overnight period. MVFR
will return by around 07-08z with ceilings around 015-020 kft.
There is a low chance for IFR ceilings but the potential is
currently too low to include in the TAFs. Ceiling improvements can
be expected through tomorrow afternoon once again.

The first round of convection will likely only impact the Bowie
cornerpost through this evening and overnight. Confidence
decreases in thunderstorm activity as you move southeast, but will
be closely monitored regardless. More widespread convection is
most likely tomorrow afternoon between 18-21z across the D10.
There is low potential for a second round of convection pushing
through the D10 terminals tomorrow evening but confidence in exact
timing and placement is low. VCTS has been introduced starting at
00z with direct impacts overhead still uncertain.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not likely today, but any reports of
hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  79  65  86  64 /  40  90  50   5  30
Waco                69  82  67  88  64 /  10  80  40  10  20
Paris               65  78  64  82  61 /  30  90  70  20  20
Denton              64  78  60  84  59 /  50  90  50   5  30
McKinney            66  78  64  83  61 /  40  90  50  10  30
Dallas              68  79  66  86  64 /  30  90  50  10  30
Terrell             67  80  66  85  63 /  20  90  50  20  20
Corsicana           70  82  69  87  66 /  10  90  50  20  20
Temple              70  86  68  91  65 /  10  80  40  20  20
Mineral Wells       65  83  60  88  60 /  50  80  30   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107.

Tornado Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>093-100>102.

&&