Dust Storm in New Mexico, March 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025

 - Windy conditions and blowing dust expected for today. Gusty
   southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph during
   the afternoon. Blowing dust will reduce visibility and create
   dangerous driving conditions.

 - Rain and snow chances increase through today, with light to
   moderate snow accumulations over the mountains. Spotty light
   rain showers expected across the desert lowlands.

 - Fair weather conditions return on Sunday and Monday before the
   next series of storm systems move across the region during the
   middle of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025

The active Spring-like pattern will continue for the next several
days as a series of Pacific storm systems move across the
Intermountain West and Desert Southwest. Each storm system will
bring rounds of wind, dust, chances of precip, and Elevated to
Critical fire weather conditions through next week.

...TODAY & SATURDAY...

As yesterday's system departs to the north and east, a secondary
lobe of energy embedded within the overall troughing pattern
across western CONUS will move across AZ and NM, bringing yet
another day of impactful weather. Current satellite imagery shows
an upper level low over the southern Colorado River Basin in the
vicinity of AZ/CA/NV. This upper level system is progged to move
eastward and eventually northeastward across AZ and NM during the
next 24-36 hours. Deep southwest flow will increase as the core
treks eastward towards NM. A rather tight 500mb pressure gradient
can be observed on model guidance with an associated 60-80 knot
500mb jet overlayed across the southern half of NM. This coupled
with surface troughing across eastern NM and the Permian
Basin/Trans Pecos of west TX, and it's associated tightly packed
pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to windy
conditions locally. Winds do not look as strong as yesterday, but
we are still expecting sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up
to 50 mph. That said, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 11AM this
morning through 7PM this evening. Again, like previous wind
events, wind trajectories of 210-250 look favorable. And given
the state of drought and anomalously warm and dry soil
conditions, these gusty winds will promote blowing dust. A
Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for desert lowland locations
excluding Hidalgo and Sierra Counties.

Switching gears, as the aforementioned upper level system
encroaches the forecast area, anomalous moisture will accompany it
along and in front of the associated Pacific front, as well as the
main core of the system. Current ensemble guidance shows anomalous
PWAT amounts of 0.5-1.5 magnitudes greater than average associated
with this system. That being said, as this system and it's
moisture interact with the high terrain of the Mogollon/Gila
Mountains and the desert sky islands of SW NM and SE AZ, rain and
snow chances will increase throughout the day and into Saturday.
High-res model guidance shows light to moderate showers beginning
early this afternoon over the Gila and areas west of the Divide. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the Gila,
including Silver City. Elevations between 5000-7500 feet could see
1-3 inches of snow and elevations above 7500 feet could see 3-5
inches of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11AM
today through 5AM tomorrow morning. Probability of precipitation
drops off for areas along and east of the RGV, excluding the
Sacramento Mtns. An isolated rain shower or two will be possible
for El Paso and Las Cruces late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

...SUNDAY & MONDAY...

Upper level ridging will move in across the Desert SW on Sunday,
giving us a break from the wind. After cool temperatures on
Saturday, temps will rebound back to around the seasonal average
with further warming on Monday. A really dry airmass will settle
in across the region on Sunday and Monday, with Elevated fire
weather conditions returning on Monday.

...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

The next series of storm systems will come into play during the
middle to end of next week. As each system traverses across the
Great Basin and Desert SW, wind, dust, and fire weather concerns
return to the forecast. Target days for potential impacts look to
be Tuesday and Thursday as deterministic guidance and their
respected ensemble suites are fairly aligned with each other.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025

Today will be another windy and dusty day. Expect a southwest
wind which will be on the increase through around mid afternoon
with speeds maxing out at 30G40KT at 21Z. Dust issues will be
similar to what we saw yesterday. Dust is already getting lofted
up at this hour and will continue to be on the increase throughout
the afternoon. After sunset, the dust and winds will be on the
downtrend but terminals will still see some mild breezes heading
into the evening hours tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025

Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected for today
for desert lowland areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Hudspeth County this
afternoon.

As yesterday's system departs to the north and east, a secondary
lobe of energy embedded within the overall troughing pattern
across western CONUS will move across AZ and NM, bring yet another
windy day to the forecast area. SW winds of 25-35 mph sustained
with gusts of 50 mph can be expected. However, moisture and Min RH
values will increase from previous days. Min RH values will remain
below critical thresholds for Hudspeth County. Min RHs across
southern and southwestern NM will range between 15 (east) and 30
(west) percent, with mountain zones above 30 percent. Deep
afternoon mixing and strong transport winds will promote excellent
smoke ventilation rates this afternoon.

Rain and snow chances increase throughout the day for the Gila
region and areas along and west of the Divide. This increase in
moisture and precip chances will give some relief with regard to
fire weather concerns over the next few days.

Dry conditions with warming temperatures return on Monday with
Elevated fire weather conditions back in the forecast. Then, the
next series of storm systems will come into play during the middle
to end of next week. As each system traverses across the Great
Basin and Desert SW, wind and fire weather concerns return to the
forecast. Target days for potential impacts look to be Tuesday
and Thursday as deterministic guidance and their respected
ensemble suites are fairly aligned with each other.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  37  59  35 /   0  10  30   0
Sierra Blanca            69  32  53  27 /   0   0  20   0
Las Cruces               63  30  56  29 /  10  10  30   0
Alamogordo               64  28  54  25 /  10  20  40   0
Cloudcroft               40  16  32  17 /  10  30  60  10
Truth or Consequences    58  31  53  30 /  30  20  40   0
Silver City              48  27  48  26 /  70  60  50   0
Deming                   61  31  58  28 /  20  10  30   0
Lordsburg                56  28  56  25 /  50  40  30   0
West El Paso Metro       68  37  57  36 /   0  10  20   0
Dell City                70  32  57  27 /   0   0  30   0
Fort Hancock             75  34  60  29 /   0   0  20   0
Loma Linda               63  30  50  30 /   0   0  30   0
Fabens                   72  35  59  30 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Teresa             66  33  56  31 /   0  10  30   0
White Sands HQ           65  36  56  35 /   0  10  30   0
Jornada Range            63  29  55  25 /  10  10  30   0
Hatch                    64  32  59  27 /  20  10  30   0
Columbus                 64  34  59  32 /  10  10  20   0
Orogrande                64  30  53  28 /   0  10  30   0
Mayhill                  53  22  43  21 /  10  20  60   0
Mescalero                51  19  42  19 /  10  30  70  10
Timberon                 51  17  42  18 /  10  20  50   0
Winston                  49  19  47  18 /  50  30  50   0
Hillsboro                56  27  53  28 /  30  20  40   0
Spaceport                60  25  54  24 /  20  10  30   0
Lake Roberts             47  25  48  22 /  80  60  60   0
Hurley                   52  26  52  24 /  60  40  40   0
Cliff                    53  24  56  18 /  70  70  50   0
Mule Creek               46  27  51  22 /  80  80  50   0
Faywood                  53  29  51  28 /  40  30  40   0
Animas                   57  29  59  27 /  50  20  10   0
Hachita                  59  28  56  25 /  40  10  20   0
Antelope Wells           59  30  58  29 /  40  20  10   0
Cloverdale               49  28  52  30 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
     Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
     Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
     Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for Central
     Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-
     Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona
     Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
     Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona
     Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
     West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...37-Slusher