NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 3:32 AM MST, 38 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 3:32 AM MST, 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 310 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
- Near record to record high temperatures are expected in many
areas today, especially east.
- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in critical fire
weather across much of eastern and portions of west central NM
today.
- Strong winds with potentially dangerous gusts will prevail along
and immediately east of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains today.
- Colder, more February like, temperatures return to eastern NM
and eventually central and western NM early to mid next week.
Snow is also possible across northern areas, with potential for
accumulations in the northern mountains.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
Unusually warm and dry conditions will persist today, especially
across portions of eastern NM where strong westerly winds will
prevail. A backdoor cold front will slide into the eastern plains
Saturday and then progress gradually west to the central mountain
chain by Sunday night, bringing cooler temperatures. A stronger
backdoor front will bring even colder air to eastern NM on
Tuesday. An unsettled weather pattern involving Pacific moisture
and chances for showers will prevail from early to mid next week,
with accumulating snow possible across the northern mountains and
nearby highlands from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts drying along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains associated with the main
downdraft of a mountain wave. High resolution cross sections for
early this morning depict weakening wind speeds with height (aka.
reverse shear) above the main downdraft to about 400 mb, then
strengthening wind shear with height above that level, suggesting a
breaking wave to at least some extent. Meanwhile, 700 mb winds along
the east slopes of the Sangres, including the I-25 corridor from Las
Vegas to Raton, are forecast to vary from 50-70 KT today.
Interestingly, a surface trough in the lee of the Sangres is
forecast to bottom out only around 1010 mb today, and this may have
something to do with a surprisingly low MOS guidance wind speed
forecast at both Las Vegas and Raton. That said, MOS guidance is
notorious for missing high wind events associated with mountain
waves along I-25. With this forecast package, we are expanding
today's High Wind Warning to include the I-25 corridor from Las
Vegas to Raton, and issuing a Wind Advisory for the area from Clines
Corners to Vaughn, Santa Rosa, and Conchas Lake. Humidities will
also drop into the single digits this afternoon across southern,
central, and eastern parts of the forecast area, with fire weather
concerns not only east of the central mountain chain, but also
around Gallup. High temperatures this afternoon will again break
records as readings climb around 11-23 degrees above 1991-2020
averages.
The speed max aloft will persist over the Sangre de Cristo and
northeast NM well into tonight, then weaken quickly as a shortwave
trough finally exits east of the central Rockies. Some high wind
speeds will probably linger into the evening and maybe even the late
night hours along the upper east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos,
but coverage is expected to be fairly localized at this time. In
the wake of the shortwave trough, high temperatures will fall a few
degrees across most of the forecast area for Saturday, except
from 10-24 degrees over northeast areas. Despite the cooling,
another round of record and near record warmth is forecast across
western, central, and southern areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
A weak backdoor cold front will slosh around between the eastern
highlands and plains from Saturday night through Sunday before
advancing west to the central mountain chain Sunday night. High
humidity in the frontal layer combined with weak upslope flow may
bring fog/drizzle in addition to low stratus across eastern NM
late Saturday night and more likely on Sunday night. Elsewhere
across central/western NM, fairly dry conditions with above normal
temperatures will persist through the weekend. Pacific moisture
will ramp up Monday ahead of a weak upper level trough, resulting
in increasing cloud cover and chances for showers, mainly in/near
the northern mountains. A stronger backdoor cold front is forecast
to move into eastern NM late Monday night and bring below normal
temperatures through mid week. An upper level trough is forecast
to swing southeast from over the Pacific NW to NM on Tue/Wed,
bringing increasing chances for showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday across western and northern NM. The atmosphere will be
sufficiently cold for snow, especially in the northern mountains
and across the northeast and central highlands where the backdoor
cold front will provide added forcing. Snow accumulation is
looking more likely from Tuesday night through Wednesday across
northern NM and Winter Weather Advisories may be required. We'll
get a break Thursday, but a more significant upper level trough
may impact the area Friday with potential for snow across northern
and western NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025
Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will continue to prevail
through the TAF period. Widespread LLWS is expected tonight in
most areas outside of sheltered valleys such as the Rio Grande.
Mountain wave activity is likely along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains between 09Z and 15Z as well. Gusty
southwest to west winds develop tomorrow, with the strongest gusts
(up to 55KT) along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains. Winds aloft remain strong tomorrow, resulting in
another round of widespread LLWS after the sun sets.
There is a batch of low stratus in the TX Panhandle that is making
its way west tonight. There is a very low chance (~10%) that it
brings IFR visibility to KCAO, but impacts are not expected at any
TAF sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS, AS WELL AS THE GALLUP AREA...
A mountain wave developing early this morning will continue today
along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Windy
conditions will also extend south and east of there with gusts along
and east of the central mountain chain generally reaching from 35 to
55 mph, except up to 70 mph along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristos. A broad shortwave trough crossing the central Rockies won't
fully exit until Saturday morning, so winds over mountain peaks and
upper east slopes of the Sangres will remain quite strong tonight.
It will also be very dry today with minimum humidities dropping into
the single digits, except for teens across northwest areas. Further,
record breaking warmth will continue today. So, we will continue the
Red Flag Warning east of the central mountain chain today. With
ample atmospheric mixing, winds are now also forecast to reach 45
mph around Gallup today, where another Red Flag Warning will be
issued.
Another round of record breaking warmth is forecast for Saturday,
except northeast and east central where a backdoor cold front will
drop temperatures around 10-24 degrees. The first half of the
coming week will feature cooling temperatures. Precip chances will
also return to the forecast as a longwave trough deepening over the
western US draws Gulf moisture and a moist backdoor cold front into
the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 64 32 59 31 / 0 5 0 0
Dulce........................... 60 22 56 21 / 0 10 10 0
Cuba............................ 64 27 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 65 24 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 64 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 69 26 66 24 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 67 31 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 69 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 65 34 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 69 24 71 25 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 71 35 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 55 24 50 24 / 0 10 10 0
Los Alamos...................... 63 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 63 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 58 32 54 33 / 0 5 0 0
Red River....................... 49 29 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 55 25 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 62 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 65 34 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 69 26 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 63 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 65 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 41 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 68 36 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 35 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 72 29 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 69 34 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 71 30 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 69 35 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 71 32 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 66 38 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 69 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 76 35 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 35 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 64 37 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 66 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 27 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 65 32 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 67 36 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 68 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 72 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 67 44 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 69 34 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 72 34 61 21 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 73 33 62 21 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 69 36 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 74 37 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 74 38 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 78 43 68 26 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 76 41 72 26 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 79 42 67 24 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 79 41 76 29 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 80 40 76 28 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 80 40 77 28 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 85 42 84 38 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 80 46 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 77 47 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for NMZ223-232-233.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
for NMZ104-123-125-126.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 4 PM MST this afternoon for
NMZ105.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ215-227.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ228-229.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44