Winter Storm and Avalanche in Idaho, February 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
216 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night.
After some sunshine yesterday and a quiet morning, cloud cover is on
the increase again and we see temperatures warming to the 30s and
low 40s across much of the area this afternoon ahead of our next
system that arrives this evening/tonight. A low moving onshore in
the northern California/PNW area brings another round of Pacific
moisture our way. This system brings a warm front northward into
eastern Idaho early Friday morning, but a band of snow will work its
way northward just ahead of that front early Friday morning. Wind
gusts will be increasing through the morning hours, but we will
really see things come to a head as the cold front charges through
the area. With 700 mb winds of 50 to 60 mph through the morning,
expect widespread gusts of at least 40 to 50 mph within the Wind
Advisory area. Even outside of the advisory, it will be plenty
windy with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Precipitation on along the cold
front will be a mix of rain and snow and it will once again be the
difference of a degree or two in who sees which precipitation
type. Either way, the front does look rather convective and
squall-y. In fact, the HREF shows about a 10 to 20 percent chance
of thunder tomorrow with a closer to 30 percent chance of thunder
in the Southeastern Highlands. Given current hi-res model timing,
look for the front to arrive in the Burley area around 8 am, in
the Pocatello and Idaho Falls areas around 9 am, and in the Driggs
area around 11 am. Either way, this will not be a particularly
fun time to be out and about on Friday morning. Snow totals have
not changed much, but remain solidly advisory level border on near
winter storm warning levels in a couple of mountain passes
(namely Galena Summit, Emigration Summit, and Pine Creek Summit).
For much of of the eastern Magic Valley snow totals on Friday will
be around an inch or less. In the Snake River Plain, most totals
will range from 1-2 inches with about a 20 percent chance of more
than 2 inches of snow in Pocatello and Idaho Falls. Snow totals
between Idaho Falls and Saint Anthony will push closer to 2 to 3
inches. Briefly considered adding this zone to the Winter Weather
Advisory, but given that the precipitation (a wetter snow, less of
an easily blown powder) will be winding down as the highest wind
gusts begin, decided against it. Snow totals within the Winter
Weather Advisory areas will generally range from 5 to 12 inches
with locally higher amounts above pass levels. It's within these
advisory zones - Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands - that
snowfall and strong, gusty winds will coincide more and create
more travel impacts. The bulk of the precipitation will be done by
the afternoon in most of our population areas and wrapping up by
early Saturday morning elsewhere. Granted, a few light snow
showers will linger into Saturday, but they will not be
widespread. AMM

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday.
The weekend and the first half of next week will be colder, with
light snow showers mainly in the mountains. Northerly flow will
keep highs in the teens and 20s most days. We could be pushing
freezing or mid 30s (especially Saturday-Monday) across from
Pocatello west and south toward the Utah border. Lows will be
colder, BUT not as cold as the last stretch in the deep freeze.
Warmer spots will be around 5-15 ABOVE, while colder spots will
drop as low as -15. Keyes

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.AVIATION...18Z Thursday to 18Z Friday.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight into
Friday morning. There is some hint we may not see widespread areas
of precipitation, instead things may end up more "showery".  We will
need to monitor that as head into the period of time. We drop into
MVFR/IFR conditions overnight and ahead of the cold front. We are
counting on a downslope/southerly component to mitigate worse
conditions at BYI, PIH and DIJ. The cold front will pass through
late morning/early afternoon, with an enhanced potential for high
winds and/or snow squall potential. By afternoon, any lingering
showers will be across the mountains...with perhaps a few crossing
the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Strong winds will persist in the
afternoon with gusts of 30-45kts possible. At SUN, this looks to be
an event that once the front passes we will see a return to a WNW or
NW wind during the afternoon...with gusts to 20kts possible if not
stronger.  Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Friday for IDZ051>057.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Friday for IDZ060-063>066-071>075.

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