NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 5, 4:48 AM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Apr 5, 4:48 AM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025
- Cold front pushes in today. Breeze northeast winds and cooler
conditions this afternoon.
- Moderate to high chances of lowland rain and mountain snow
today through tonight.
- A winter storm warning is in effect for the Sacramento
Mountains today, with 5 to 9 inches of snow possible over east
slopes.
- Cold tonight with a moderate freeze. A late season Freeze
Warning is in effect for the lowlands tonight into early Sunday
morning.
- Dry and warming next week with near record high temps by late
week and generally light winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025
We have an active and potentially moderately impactful start to
this forecast cycle with the arrival of a backdoor cold front from
the N and NE, and an upper level storm system from the west. These
two will meet over the CWFA, and merge, cold air, instability,
moisture, overrunning, and dynamics to produce widespread
precipitation across the region today. As of 3am, most of our
region is in a dry hole, with only partly cloudy skies, and plenty
of precip falling to our north and east, but as the cold front
pushes south through the morning we should see increasing lowland
rain/mountain snow across the region. The fropa timing is through
the SACs during the 7am hour, to El Paso during the 11am hour, to
Deming by noon. The high-res convection models show enhanced echos
following the frontal boundary to the S and W, with the timing
stated above. For the SACs there will be a fair amount of enhanced
lift from low-level upslope flow. Thus the models are keying in on
high snowfall totals today. East slopes are in the 6-8" range.
Higher Elevations could see 5-7". That is the reason for the
Winter Weather Warning. The mountains across the Gila region will
be fortunate to get 1-3" of snow. Snow levels will drop to
4500-5500 ft during the day, so mid-elevation lowlands could see a
mix that should NOT stick. However our eastern mountain areas are
likely to see travel impacts from today's snow.
For Tonight, the main upper storm system quickly exits to the
east, but there is a hang-back lobe of energy that will slowly
swing S and E across the region. That could be the reason we see
some lingering lighter precipitation across the region through the
overnight period. Tonight's temperatures will be quite cooler,
with most of the lowlands dropping into the 27-32F range. That
means a late season freeze, past the average last freeze date for
most areas. Thus we have also issued a Freeze Warning for all of
the lowlands except the El Paso metro, and lower valley. In
addition, and precipitation that does fall overnight will likely
fall as snow, or at least a mix. However, there is not expected to
be any accumulation die to light precipitation.
Sunday the last of the upper trough drops S and E of our region
with dry northerly flow sweeping out the moisture, and clearing
skies. We will stay chilly, but Sunday will start a long duration
warming trend through late week.
For the work week ahead we will see high pressure build over the
region. This will result in a very dry environment with very low
RH. We will also see daily gains in temperatures, with highs
warming into the 90s. We will see a period of above average
temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and fair weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025
A Pacific storm system from the west, and an inbound cold front
from the north are converging over the region this morning. That
means a day of unsettled weather with breezy to gusty NE winds,
low clouds and ceilings, areas of rain and mountains snow. Thus a
wide range of flight categories ranging from VFR to MVFR and IFR
through the day.
The cold front, and shifting winds to the NW will push S and SW
through the morning...arriving at KTCS around 13Z...KLRU around
16Z...KELP around 17Z...and KDMN around 18Z. Winds will be 020 to
050 in the 12-15kt range with gusts 20-25kts. Along with these
times, expect clouds to increase, CIGs to drop, and precipitation
to begin. Low clouds will mean obscurations to terrain, with
clouds and CIGs temporarily between 010-030 AGL. VSBY may also
temporarily drop in areas of lowland rain, with snow above 5000ft
elevations.
Ceilings will begin to lift and showers will taper off late in
the afternoon, with VFR conditions back for most locations after
03z, despite some hold over lingering isolated rain/snow showers
across the region through 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025
Spring fire season takes a short break today, as winter revisits
for a short spell. Today a backdoor cold front, and upper level
storm system converge over the region. The result will be colder
breezy N and NE winds, plenty of clouds, increased moisture with
elevated RH, and widespread areas of lowland rain and mountain
snow. The Sac east slopes could see 5-9" of snow. The Gila region
mountains only 1-3" of snow. The lowlands 0.02" to 0.10" west,
increasing east to 0.15" to 0.30". This system will give the
region good precip chances through the day today, with precip
coverage diminishing this evening and overnight, but still
possible as the system slowly exits through early Sunday.
Monday and beyond we see high pressure aloft return to the region.
This will begin a rapid warming and drying of the region. We will
see above normal temperatures by Tuesday, persisting into next
weekend. There will be very dry air back over the region, with
plenty of sunshine, and RH dropping back down into the single-
digits and teens. Fire weather conditions will trend back toward
elevated due to the hot and dry weather, but winds will remain
light to only moderately breezy through the week, as the high
pressure keep the storm track well north, and pressure gradients
relaxed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 50 34 59 40 / 80 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 45 24 52 31 / 90 20 0 0
Las Cruces 49 28 57 34 / 80 10 0 0
Alamogordo 50 26 58 32 / 90 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 27 13 38 21 / 90 40 0 0
Truth or Consequences 47 29 60 36 / 80 10 0 0
Silver City 52 25 58 33 / 50 10 0 0
Deming 55 27 62 32 / 60 10 0 0
Lordsburg 59 27 63 31 / 40 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 50 35 58 41 / 80 20 0 0
Dell City 45 25 57 28 / 90 30 0 0
Fort Hancock 51 28 60 33 / 90 10 0 0
Loma Linda 42 29 51 36 / 90 10 0 0
Fabens 50 30 59 34 / 80 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 50 30 57 35 / 90 20 0 0
White Sands HQ 51 34 60 40 / 80 10 0 0
Jornada Range 51 25 60 30 / 80 10 0 0
Hatch 55 26 63 30 / 80 10 0 0
Columbus 58 30 61 35 / 60 10 0 0
Orogrande 48 28 56 32 / 80 20 0 0
Mayhill 35 17 48 26 / 90 50 0 0
Mescalero 37 17 49 24 / 90 40 0 0
Timberon 35 15 46 23 / 90 30 0 0
Winston 41 17 56 24 / 70 10 0 0
Hillsboro 47 25 61 32 / 70 10 0 0
Spaceport 50 24 61 29 / 80 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 50 22 60 29 / 60 10 10 0
Hurley 52 22 58 29 / 40 10 0 0
Cliff 60 24 66 29 / 50 20 0 0
Mule Creek 57 27 61 31 / 50 30 0 0
Faywood 50 25 58 32 / 60 10 0 0
Animas 60 27 64 32 / 30 10 0 0
Hachita 57 25 61 30 / 40 10 0 0
Antelope Wells 58 27 61 33 / 50 20 0 0
Cloverdale 55 28 59 36 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.
Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Sunday for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands.
Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for
Otero Mesa.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet.
&&
FORECASTER...14-Bird