A developing low pressure system near the Texas Panhandle, ahead of a broad but intense western United States trough, resulted in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A developing low pressure system near the Texas Panhandle, ahead of a broad but intense western United States trough, resulted in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 1, 1:23 PM MST, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
- Strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions
impacting southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas today.
- An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out over the
eastern and northeastern Permian Basin this evening and again
Wednesday.
- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
A broad upper-level trough continues to cause wind, dust, and
fire weather concerns this afternoon. Winds gradually decrease
later this evening and through the night. However, they will
remain strong enough to allow for continued wind and blowing dust
hazards until late this evening. As such, a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect through 3 AM MDT/ 4 AM CDT Wednesday for the
Guadalupe Mountains, eastern Culberson County, and much of
southeast New Mexico. A High Wind Advisory remains in effect
through 9 PM MDT/ 10 PM CDT this evening for much of the Permian
Basin, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and the Upper Trans Pecos.
Furthermore, a Blowing Dust Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM
MDT/ 10 PM CDT this evening for the same areas under the High Wind
Warning/Advisory. Continue to take caution on the roads,
especially if blowing dust is reducing visibility!
The dryline slowly retreats westward tonight, returning to the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos around midnight,
before a Pacific cold front sweeps in from the northwest. Lift
associated with a shortwave may be enough to kick up an isolated
storm or two in the northeastern Permian Basin. Storm activity
primarily looks to stay east of our area, especially once Pacific
cold front pushes in from the northwest early Wednesday morning,
taking the moisture with it.
Cooler temperatures, and lighter winds for most of us are in
store on Wednesday. Except for some 90s near the Rio Grande and
60s in the mountains , highs elsewhere will top out in the 70s and
80s. Strong, southwesterly flow within the upper-level trough
keep winds elevated over the Guadalupe Mountains, but they look to
either just miss or only briefly hit warning criteria. Therefore,
we will not be issuing a High Wind Warning at this time.
Otherwise, winds stay on the breezy side over southeastern New
Mexico and areas west of the Pecos River Wednesday afternoon.
Tomorrow evening, 12Z hi-res models show storms developing in the
eastern portion of our area as another shortwave embedded within
the broader upper-level trough ripples through. A few storms will
have the potential to become strong to severe, posing a wind and
hail threat before tracking eastward. At the moment, the greatest
potential remains over the northeastern Permian Basin, but PoPs
are relatively low, ranging from 10%-40%. Lows Wednesday night
fall anywhere from the low 40s to the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Weather for the end of the week and weekend will be dominated by
an upper level trough digging into the Desert Southwest and
gradually moving east towards New Mexico and Texas. NBM guidance
appears to again be too high on PoPs due to wet ensemble members
and poor resolution.
Precipitation begins Thursday evening when instability reaches the
Guadalupe Mountains and combined with orographic lift causes
storms to develop in southeastern New Mexico. Additionally, an old
boundary in the eastern Permian Basin will serve as another focus
for convective initiation giving pretty good rain chances to the
eastern Permian Basin. Unfortunately that leaves the central
Permian Basin and Big Bend in an area of lower rain chances. Not
to say that Midland/Odessa and others in that area won't receive
rain but the chances are not as good as our northern and eastern
tier of counties.
Rain chances decrease Friday morning but the slow upper low will
still be to the west Friday afternoon and should spark another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The biggest difference Friday
will be mid level winds becoming more westerly on Friday possibly
pushing shower activity farther in to the Permian Basin than the
previous day. Additionally a cold front associated with the low
possibly enhancing rain chances late Friday and even into
Saturday. The upper trough moves east of the area on Sunday
bringing an end to rain chances.
Models are indicating some cold air behind the cold front on
Saturday. Clouds limit heating Friday to the 60s and 70s with cold
air behind the front dropping highs into the 50s and 60s for the
weekend. Northerly winds and clear skies could even bring a late
season freeze to many portions of the area so anyone that has
already started planting their spring gardens will need to take
precautions to protect the plants. Ridging early next week
increases temperatures back to near normal.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
MVFR conditions are expected at most sites this afternoon and
evening. KHOB and KCNM look to experience periods of IFR
conditions as an upper-level system kicks up strong, westerly and
southwesterly winds and dust. Winds should begin to gradually
calm down after sunset. A cold front sweeps in early Wednesday
morning, shifting winds out of the northwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Red flag conditions are being observed across much of the area
this afternoon due to well above normal temperatures dropping
humidity values into the lower teens and winds becoming very
gusty. Conditions improve after sunset when winds diminish and
though winds increase again tomorrow, they will be about 10mph
lower than today and fire weather conditions will be more
marginal. Therefore a Fire Danger Statement may be needed instead
of a Red Flag Warning. Increasing rain chances should further
decrease the fire weather threat late in the week though cannot
rule out dry lightning starts being a threat. The best chance for
wetting rains will be from southeastern New Mexico, across the
northern Permian Basin to the eastern Permian Basin. Unfortunately
rain chances will be lowest in the Big Bend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 56 80 53 78 / 10 0 30 0
Carlsbad 48 74 46 69 / 0 0 10 10
Dryden 63 90 60 86 / 0 0 10 0
Fort Stockton 57 83 53 79 / 0 10 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 48 65 44 60 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 45 72 49 69 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 50 79 45 74 / 0 10 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 56 78 53 77 / 0 0 20 0
Odessa 56 77 53 76 / 0 0 10 0
Wink 53 80 50 74 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening
for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea-Eddy
County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
Lea.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central
Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A maximum wind gust of 69 MPH was observed at the RAWS station, QENN5 Queen, in the Guadalupe Mountains.
A maximum wind gust of 59 MPH was observed at the Artesia AWOS station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1243415, 1243416.