Damaging Winds in New Jersey, June 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure remains offshore today. A cold front
passes through the region tonight, bringing relatively cooler
and drier air to the region for Friday. High pressure should
then generally dominate through the weekend and into early next
week with a building ridge aloft over the East Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Severe weather likely this afternoon into this evening***

By early- mid afternoon, clouds will begin to build as the
front approaches with the shortwave aloft. CAPE values look to
reach or exceed 2000 J/kg again, but shear and forcing is a bit
stronger today. Thus, SPC has most of the region in an enhanced
risk of severe weather. In fact the area of enhanced risk was
expanded east to include the coast with SPC's morning update.
The main risk remains damaging winds, but large hail is also
possible, and the tornado risk is not zero either. Overall it
should be a more active day for severe weather than yesterday
was. With high PW's, there could be localized flooding as well,
though storms should be moving along...main risks here would be
any unlucky training and very heavy downpours in the urban core.

Storms likely dwindle and push offshore by mid-evening. Cold
front probably doesn't reach the region until later tonight, so
for a while it will be very warm and humid, but toward dawn the
cooler, drier air will finally push across the region. Lows
will return to the 60s, but not until after the frontal passage
very late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the prominent shortwave axis shifts offshore on Friday, the
region will stay within northwesterly flow aloft as upper-level
ridging begins to take shape over southern and central portions
of the US.

At the surface, low pressure will continue to shift eastward
across far northern portions of New England and into New
Brunswick before entering the North Atlantic by Friday night.
This will keep winds across the area northwesterly. While ample
sunshine will still allow temperatures to warm into the mid 80s
(outside of a few upper 70s in the Poconos), the drier post
frontal airmass should feel much more comfortable than today.
With light winds and clear skies, Friday night should also be
fairly comfortable. Lows look to be in the low- mid 60s, though
they may remain in the upper 60s to near 70 across the Delmarva
and in the urban corridor.

Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the
southeastern US and into portions of the Ohio Valley on
Saturday. Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will likely
warm into the upper 80s to near 90 outside of the Poconos and in
coastal regions. Thankfully, the airmass in place won't be
particularly moist, keeping heat index values at bay.

Model guidance has been fairly consistent the past couple of
days that a shortwave will at least glance the area Saturday
night on the periphery of the ridge. This could provide a slight
chance for a few showers and storms to the northern half of the
area. No severe weather is expected with this disturbance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The reprieve from the dangerous heat will begin to come to an
end on Sunday. Upper- level ridging will be firmly established
across the Mid- Atlantic beginning on Sunday and continuing
through the first part of next week. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control. The airmass in place will
become increasingly moist, with dewpoints likely rising into the
low 70s on Sunday and remaining that way through mid-week.

With the high pressure in place, increasing moisture, and ample
sunshine each day, it will likely be quite hot. Monday and
Tuesday look to be the hottest days, with temperatures likely to
exceed 90 areawide. Many inland locations outside of the
Poconos could potentially reach the upper 90s or near 100. Heat
indices could exceed 100 for a large portion of the area.

There are some subtle indications that ridging could begin to
break down slightly Wednesday and especially beyond. This could
provide some hope for slightly cooler temperatures and, perhaps,
some rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...VFR for the early afternoon but some scattered
showers and storms are already starting to develop and expect main
threat for TAF sites to be mainly 19-22z or so for TAF sites N/W of
the urban corridor and 18-00z for urban corridor TAF sites. For MIV
and ACY, storms will be more towards the 21-01z time frame. Expect
brief restrictions to IFR visbys in any storms with the potential
for peak wind gusts of 50 to 60 knots should the core of any strong
storm or line segment move over a TAF site.

SHRA/TSRA end tonight by 04Z. VFR with clearing skies. SW winds
around 5-10 kt becoming NW late with some gusts to around 20 knots
possible.

Moderate confidence in the forecast through this evening with high
confidence for the overnight.

Friday...VFR. West winds around 10 knots with some gusts to around
15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are currently in effect through tonight.
South- southwest winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 22-24
kt possible this afternoon into tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet,
possibly up to 5 feet. Due to marginal conditions, have held off
on a SCA for the Atlantic coastal waters at this time, however,
a SCA may become warranted if further confidence is reached.

Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to occur this afternoon and evening. These storms may
warrant special marine warnings.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated with
winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 ft.

Rip Currents...

For today, winds and swell remain oriented south-
southwesterly. However, winds increase to 15-20 mph with seas
increasing to around 4 feet. As a result, breaking waves in the
surf zone of 2-3 feet look to occur across all beaches.
Therefore, a MODERATE risk for the development of rip currents
is forecast for NJ beaches today while for the Delaware beaches
we have a LOW risk.

For Friday, the winds shift to offshore and the wave heights
diminish however it looks like there will be some longer period
swell groups. For this reason, we will continue with a MODERATE
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the NJ
beaches with a LOW risk for the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102-
     104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015-017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Deal/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Cooper/RCM