NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 8:45 AM PST, 3 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 8:45 AM PST, 3 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
945 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures are expected again today, with
increasingly gusty conditions this afternoon. Widespread strong
winds are expected Monday with gusts of 40-50 mph along with
pockets of blowing dust. Temperatures will cool sharply on Tuesday
with a slow rebound expected for the remainder of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...Las Vegas, Needles, Daggett, Death Valley, and Kingman are
all currently sitting on record warm low temperatures for the day
thanks to the overnight cloud cover trapping outgoing longwave
radiation. The Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Mead and Lake Mohave went
into effect at 8:00 am PDT this morning, along with the Wind
Advisory for the Eastern Sierra Slopes, Owens Valley, and White
Mountains. The big question we will be answering on this shift will
be does the Wind Advisory for the Eastern Sierra and Owens Valley
need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning due to the threat posed
by downslope winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with
temperatures fairly similar to yesterday and breezy winds picking up
across the region as a trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest
today before moving into our area on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.
Continuing to watch as an upper level system moves into he region
today through early next week. Winds will be the main impact as the
pressure gradient increases as the trough pushes out the upper level
ridge that has been overhead recently.
For today: highest confidence for wind impacts remains to be in the
Sierra, Owens Valley, and White Mountains where a Wind Advisory is
in effect goes into effect today. Winds will increase this morning
in the Sierra then spread down the slopes into the Owens Valley by
late this morning. Gusts 40-50 MPH are likely in the valleys with
gusts over 60 MPH in the terrain. Higher gusts to 70 MPH are
possible this evening in the higher elevations of the Sierra as a
mid to upper level jet enhances over the Sierra, but impacts should
remain isolated. There is some signal for downslope winds over 60
MPH after 4 PM today into the early evening in the Owens Valley,
mainly between Big Pine and Independence, CA. This is where the HREF
shows a 40%-60% chance for gusts over 60 MPH, and these
probabilities are not all driven by one bullish ensemble member as
many members on the meteograms at Independence show 60 MPH+.
However, NBM probabilities for over 60 MPH gusts are much lower with
only a 20%-30% chance. Hi-res short term deterministic models are
split if gusts over 60 MPH will reach the valley. Looking at the
expected synoptic set up and comparing it to climatology of past
downslope events in the Sierra- the jet streak and associated area
of subsidence may be displaced too far north. With this is mind,
left the wind advisory and did not upgrade to a High Wind Warning as
confidence is too low. Either way- anyone driving on Highway 395
today should be prepared for strong crosswinds and difficult driving
conditions.
Lake conditions today will also be hazardous as south winds to 25
MPH and some higher gusts will result in waves of 1-3 feet on Lake
Mead, Mohave, and Havasu. The Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect
for today as boating may be difficult at times, especially for in
experienced boaters or smaller boats.
Elsewhere today, southwest winds will gust 25 to 35 mph. Some higher
gusts are possible on the lee side of the Spring Mountains between
Desert Rock and Indian Springs, NV this afternoon, which could cause
crosswind issues. Gusts to 40 mph are also possible in northern
Lincoln County at times but impacts will be isolated and short lived
for today.
For Monday: Stronger, more widespread gusty winds over 40 MPH are
likely as the trough digs into northern California. An increasing
jet is noted at 700mb and 850mb across San Bernardino through
southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Issued a wind advisory for many
areas along and north of the I-15 as wind impacts are expected,
including difficult driving conditions, impacts to travel, and
patchy blowing dust. After a lull in the winds in the Lake Mead
Recreation area tonight, strong winds and waves to 2-4 feet will
develop again Monday. With south winds gusts to 40-45mph and higher
waves than today, decided to issue a Wind Advisory for the Lake Mead
and Lake Mohave area to heighten the impact wording. Gusts to 60 mph
are possible in the terrain. Included the Death Valley area, though
the highest risk for impacts will be in the southern half of the
area. Also included Twentynine Palms and Yucca Valley as there was
at least a 50% chance for wind gusts over 40mph and the area is
prone to blowing dust. For southern Mohave County and the Lake
Havasu City region as well as central Nye into Esmeralda counties- a
few gusts to 40 mph are possible but probabilities were lower and
the jet is not in a favorable position for gusty winds and wind
impacts to develop on Monday. For these areas, did not issue a wind
advisory and gusts will generally remain in the 25-35 mph range.
Winds will diminish Monday night as we area decouples. Not expecting
any other impacts other than the winds as the airmass remains dry
and no precipitation will develop today or Monday. High temperatures
may cool a few degrees today compared to yesterday but will still be
well above normal for this time of the year. Moderate (level 2 of 4)
Heat Risk is forecast in most valley areas again today, and High
(level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is expected in Death Valley. Anyone with
outdoor plans should be aware of the potential for heat impacts-
drink plenty of water, take breaks in cool areas, and adjust plans
to the cooler parts of the day. By Monday as heights fall and cooler
air is ushered into the region, temperatures will cool and Heat Risk
drops to Minor (level 1 of 4) for all locations.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
After the windy day on Monday, winds will be on a downward trend
through the day on Tuesday as the axis of the trough responsible
translates eastward across the region. Breezy conditions will
persist, with gusts to around 30 to 35mph, particularly across
portions of San Bernardino County along I-40, though of additional
focus will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
across the Sierra Crest and Great Basin Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The greatest chance for precipitation will be across the
Lincoln County Panhandle, where there is a 30-50% chance of
measurable precipitation. Forecast QPF remains very low, only a
couple of hundredths at best, though lightning strikes and gusty
winds will be possible if thunderstorms develop due to the increased
ascent and instability on the order of 100-200 J/kg Tuesday
afternoon. Any precipitation that develops would diminish and
quickly move east through Tuesday evening as the trough continues
its eastward trek. Aside from the winds and precipitation chances,
Tuesday will also be the coolest day of the forecast, characterized
by highs in the 60s and 70s for most, 80s in the Lower Colorado
River Valley and Death Valley, with 50s in the mountains.
In the wake of the trough, a relatively unsettled pattern looks to
remain in place through the end of the week given continued
northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Not only will this keep the
door open for additional troughs to move over the region, but it
will also temper the warming trend that's progged to begin on
Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound to near and just above normal
by the end of the week, with ensembles and cluster analyses in
decent agreement that another short wave will move into the area
next weekend. While details remain uncertain, this trough would
produce another round of breezy to windy conditions as well as
another cooldown, so stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
south-southwest winds will persist through the rest of the TAF
period. Strongest winds in the afternoon and early evening with
gusts around 30 knots. After sunset, gusts gradually weaken to
around 15-20 knots. VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT high clouds.
Stronger winds will resume tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 35 knots
possible.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty south-southwest
winds will persist through at least sunset. Gusts expected to
generally be in the 25-35 knot range. This evening, winds at BIH may
become more westerly before weakening and turning north-northeast
overnight. In the Colorado River Valley, winds weaken after sunset
but hold on to their southerly component. VFR conditions prevail
with FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
UPDATE...Stessman
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Outler
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