NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 6:46 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 6:46 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
646 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The strong winds along the western foothills today will come to
an end tonight.
- Snow returns Friday into Saturday. Best chance of accumulating
snow is over the western mountains (3-6 inches) and western
foothills (1 to 4 inches).
- Very cold temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will range
from single digits below to teens above zero (coldest east).
Monday morning wind chills could reach -20 to -40 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Friday night...
Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are ongoing this afternoon
across the area. The strongest winds, as forecast, are around and
west of Billings. At Livingston, wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph are
ongoing and will continue through the evening hours today. So far,
the winds at Big Timber have behaved with the inversion in place.
However, there is still time for the inversion to break this
afternoon and early evening. If this happens, winds could
overachieve around Big Timber for an hour or two. By tonight, the
wind threat across the western foothills will come to an end as a
cold front drops through the region. Behind the front, breezy
north to northwesterly winds will prevail across the area.
With the cold front passage tonight, colder temperatures and the
chance of precipitation will return to the region. Look for
Friday's high temperatures to occur early in the morning as
temperatures drop through much of the day behind the front
(temperatures in the 30s ahead of the front dropping into the
upper teens and 20s through the day).
With the cooler temperatures, periods of generally light snow are
expected. The first push of snow will come just behind the front
early Friday morning. While this round will be brief and light for
most locations over the plains, northerly winds will allow for
upslope enhancement into the mountains and foothills, mainly in
south-central Montana. Therefore, towns along the foothills,
including Red Lodge, could pick up a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow
in the morning. This, combined with breezy winds, will likely
create wintry conditions for the morning commute in those areas.
Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills for Friday morning. While a
break in the snow is expected after the first round, additional
shortwaves look to progress through the flow into Saturday,
allowing periods of light snow to continue. With the light snow
later Friday into Saturday, temperatures will be too cold to
produce snow that accumulates efficiently. Therefore, forecast
snow amounts later Friday into Saturday are light across the area.
When all is said and done, generally a trace to 1 inch of snow
can be expected over the plains, 1 to 4 inches can be expected
along the foothills and higher hills of southern Montana and
Sheridan County, Wyoming, and 3 to 6 inches can be expected in the
mountains. Arends
Saturday through Thursday...
Arctic air moving into the region will bring much colder
temperatures into early next week, with a 70-90% chance of high
temperatures below 0 from Miles City east on Sunday and Monday.
In addition, Saturday afternoon into evening, conditions are
expected to be breezy, with gusts around 20-30 mph over much of
the region. These cold temperatures will be something to keep an
eye on.
Saturday has the best chance for snow over lower elevations,
although any accumulations will be light, with a less than 20%
chance of at least 0.5" outside of the higher hills. The cold air
will limit dendritic growth, and moisture is not impressive on
soundings. As weak shortwaves move through the flow, some light
snow, primarily over the mountains, may occur.
On Tuesday, the cold air over the region will be pushed east as
high pressure aloft begins to move in. With this change, strong
winds are favored over the western foothills, and there is
currently a 30% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph near
Livingston late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the teens over the western
and central regions and single digits over the east, decreasing to
single digits below zero over the east and single digits above
zero over central areas. Tuesday is the start of temperatures
approaching normal, with highs in the low 20s to low 30s,
increasing to mid 20s to mid 30s by Thursday. Archer
&&
.AVIATION...
07Z Update:
Strong SW winds at KLVM will be strongest over the next few
hours, before a cold front passes through from the north,
shifting winds N/NW after 06Z for all sites. With this front, a
band of snow showers is expected to move through, bringing a
moderate chance of brief MVFR conditions to KLVM and KSHR around
12Z. With the frontal passage, conditions will be breezy during
the day Friday with gusts of 25-40 kts across the region.
Additional rounds of light snow can be expected through the
forecast period. Mountain obscurations are also likely. TS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/030 013/017 907/010 911/008 901/027 018/033 018/034
33/S 33/S 11/B 10/U 01/B 11/B 12/S
LVM 020/029 008/015 902/016 908/015 004/031 016/030 015/035
45/S 21/E 11/B 10/U 01/N 11/B 11/N
HDN 022/032 010/016 911/008 916/008 909/028 016/033 015/034
44/S 36/S 11/B 10/U 01/B 22/S 22/S
MLS 021/027 007/011 916/000 919/902 913/023 014/028 015/030
02/S 12/S 00/U 00/I 01/B 22/S 12/S
4BQ 023/029 008/012 914/001 917/000 913/025 015/028 016/030
03/S 21/E 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/S 22/S
BHK 018/026 000/006 921/904 923/905 916/020 010/025 011/027
02/S 10/N 00/I 00/I 01/B 22/S 11/B
SHR 020/030 004/014 914/008 918/006 912/033 012/031 013/035
38/S 23/S 11/B 10/U 01/B 22/S 12/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 11 AM MST
Friday FOR ZONES 56-66.
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM MST Friday FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billings