Wildfire in Nebraska, January 16 to 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1152 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions as well as a above normal highs continue today as
highs rise into mid 40s to mid 50s.

- Light snow is possible on Friday night across the Panhandle
and Pine Ridge with accumulations less than an inch.

- Frigid temperatures move into the region for the weekend and
beginning of next week with wind chills approaching negative 20 or
below for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Strong upper level ridging remains in place through Friday morning
allowing dry conditions to persist as well as above normal
temperatures. Strong warm air advection will push 850 mb
temperatures into the 6 to 10 C range resulting in surface highs in
the mid 40s to mid 50s across much of the region (warmest highs
across the southwest). Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on
the developing surface low and cold front track. Temperatures across
the northwest will struggle to rise above the low to mid 30s as the
front pushes through that region early in the day. For locations
further to the south and east, the front takes a little longer to
push through and therefore diurnal heating will support highs in the
low to mid 40s.

The next weather system arrives Friday night bringing not only
precipitation but also a surge of much colder temperatures. Latest
model runs show precipitation decreasing across our region with only
the Panhandle and portions of the Pine Ridge having any potential to
see accumulating snow. Forecasted accumulations are under 1 inch
which while minimal, will be combined with some stronger
north/northwest winds on Friday night (around 30 mph). These winds
have the potential to cause blowing snow and reduce visibility which
will impact travel Friday night and into Saturday. North winds
decrease slightly during the day on Saturday, but still remain in
the 20 to 25 mph range into Saturday evening. A secondary surge of
snow will push off the Black Hills on Saturday evening impacting
portions of the Pine Ridge. With plenty of moisture, another half
inch of snow accumulations will be possible before coming to an end
by late Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

The main concern in the extended period will be the arctic air that
will filter into the central Plains through early next week.
Confidence continues to increase that dangerously cold temperatures
will arrive by the second half of the weekend as cold air advection
pushes 850mb temperatures in the -16 to -26 C range over north
central and western Nebraska. These temperatures will allow for
surface temperatures to plummet. Highs on Sunday will range from the
single digits in the north to the mid teens south of I-80 with even
colder highs on Monday in the low single digits to low teens.
However, the bitter cold lows will be more of a concern as
forecasted temperatures drop into the negative teens (north) to the
negative single digits (south) on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
nights. Latest probabilities support these temperatures as the
probability of seeing less than -10 F for a low on Sunday morning
(Saturday night) is generally 20% or greater for areas north of a
line from Oshkosh to Valentine. However, the probability of
observing -10 F or below for Monday and Tuesday mornings (Sunday and
Monday night) is nearly 50% or greater for all of north central and
western Nebraska. These lows combined with north/northwest winds
will result in wind chills approaching the negative teens to
negative 20 degree range. The coldest night will be Sunday
night/Monday morning when the coldest mid-level air arrives to
create wind chills approaching negative 30 across northern Nebraska
(mainly along and north of US-20). At this time no cold weather
advisories or extreme cold warnings are issued, but if the going
forecast remains steady or temperatures drop a few more degrees over
the next couple of days, they will likely be necessary.

The cold air will be short lived as some weak upper level ridging as
well as warm air advection will allow for temperatures to warm once
again and to return to near normal by the middle of next week. Dry
conditions will also persist into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

VFR conditions expected across central and western Nebraska this
valid period. Expect FEW-SCT250 spilling in from the north.
A cold front will move in near 12Z Friday. This will bring
increasing winds through 18Z Friday, with gusts up to 30 KT.
VFR ceilings will also occur Friday morning to as low as 8K feet
AGL. Winds aloft will amplify this evening and expect low level
wind shear at KVTN this evening from 02Z to 06Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1053 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1053 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 /953 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across
southwest Nebraska where snow cover is no longer present and
southwesterly winds will gust to 20 mph at times.

Otherwise, widespread hazardous weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Frigid temperatures and dangerously low wind chill values down to
20 below zero or colder are expected Saturday night through Tuesday
morning across most of central and western Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.