Upper level support paired with an open, unstable warm sector supported the development of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon of April 10th. Unidirectional wind shear and steep mid and low level lapse rates suggested that marginally severe hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats of the evening.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Upper level support paired with an open, unstable warm sector supported the development of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon of April 10th. Unidirectional wind shear and steep mid and low level lapse rates suggested that marginally severe hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats of the evening. This forecast was verified as multiple reports of near 60 mph wind gusts and quarter sized hail came in that afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 10, 12:06 PM CST, 59 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL 106 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon hours. A few storms may be strong to severe and produce hail up to the size of quarters and gusty winds across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. - Much cooler weather returns on Friday before readings warm back up for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Latest water vapor shows multiple impulses embedded in the broad northwest flow aloft heading southeast out of the Upper Midwest. The first one is currently over northeast Nebraska and is expected to be the impetus for the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by early this afternoon. The highest coverage of storms is expected to be along/east of the Mississippi River where a weak wave of low pressure/inverted trough is located later today. Deep mixing combined with very cool temperatures aloft (steep lapse rates) is expected to yield SBCAPE values of 750-1250+ J/kg by mid afternoon collocated with 30-40 knots of deep-layer shear through mid afternoon. Hail up to the size of quarters is the main threat due to high amounts of CAPE within the hail-growth zone, but soundings also show very deep mixing with plenty of DCAPE for gusty winds as well. The best temporal/spatial window for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is roughly from 1-6 PM, mainly in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. By early evening, diurnal instability will wane as sunset approaches. In addition, deep-layer shear will really lessen as the midlevel impulse shifts into southeast Missouri. This should close the window for any strong-severe thunderstorms, with the chances of any lightning activity ceasing around 0300 UTC. Mostly dry weather is then favored overnight tonight through Friday, though a few very light rain showers or sprinkles are possible as another midlevel impulse dives southward down the Mississippi River. After a fairly warm day today, look for much cooler temperatures to move into the area on Friday. Strong low-level cold air advection ushers in 850-hPa temperatures of +1 to -3C by midday Friday, below the 25th percentile for the day. In addition, low-level RH plots show fairly thick stratus hanging around well into the afternoon. The pattern would also favor quite a bit of stratocumulus elsewhere given the cyclonic flow aloft. Given the strong low-level cold air advection and stratus/stratocumulus detailed above, cooled high temperatures a couple of degrees areawide, with most locations only topping out in the mid to upper 50s. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 (Friday Night) Seasonably cold conditions are forecast on Friday night as a surface anticyclone moves toward the Mississippi River. Lows in the mid to upper 30s are forecast. Some scattered frost development is possible in the coolest locations given light winds and a clear sky. The reason lows should not drop below freezing is because of dewpoints staying in the 30s. Otherwise, we likely would see some subfreezing lows. (Saturday - Sunday Night) A dry weekend is in store with moderating temperatures as southerly winds increase and mid/upper level ridging moves overhead. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 60s, with widespread 70s expected on Sunday. (Monday - Wednesday) Clusters of the 500-hPa height pattern are in pretty good agreement that a mid/upper level shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest early next work week. A surface low associated with this mid/upper level feature is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Monday, with a cold front moving through our neck of the woods. There is still some timing differences with this frontal passage, but this front will bring a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms. No widespread significant rainfall is expected with this system due to stronger mid/upper level forcing for ascent staying well to our north and weak moisture return ahead of the front. LREF probabilities for even a tenth of an inch of rain drop to 10-20%, with less than 10% of members showing a quarter inch or more of rainfall. A similar pattern is likely to exist heading into the middle of next work week as we are currently in characterized by below normal 850- hPa temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 30s/40s are most likely. Another night with frost potential seems plausible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, though that will depend on the exact timing of the surface ridge and cloud trends. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A band of showers and isolated storms just pushed southeast of the metro terminal sites in the last half hour. Additional storms are projected this afternoon, with the next wave timed to arrive near those TAF sites around 19z. The best chance of thunder the rest of the afternoon into early evening remains near the metro terminals, so PROB30 for the TSTM occurrance was only included there. Primarily showers are expected at the remaining TAF sites, so PROB30 or VCSH was included for rain. Northwest winds have been slower to increase, but gusts to 20kts are still expected to develop in the first hour or so of this TAF period. Northwest winds will lighten up tonight, with ceilings lowering from north to south. MVFR ceilings are forecast by 0800 UTC at KUIN, with metro terminals likely to see lower ceilings at or just after 1200 UTC Friday. Can't rule out some patchy MVFR fog in the morning around sunrise, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs at this point. Shimon && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-110845- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 332 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe between 1 and 6 PM, mainly in parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Hail up to the size of quarters and gusty winds are the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is another chance of thunderstorms on Sunday night and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or wind damage to the National Weather Service Gosselin
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
156 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM Hail Jonesburg 38.86N 91.31W
04/10/2025 E0.70 Inch Montgomery MO Public
Public report courtesy KFVS-12.
&&
CarneyThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 6 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:03 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A 58 mph thunderstorm wind gust was recorded by a highway sensor.
The ASOS at KSUS measured a 60 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
Thunderstorm winds knocked over a healthy hickory tree approximately 10 to 12 inches in diameter. The tree tilted over about 45 degrees from its roots and did not fall over completely.
The ASOS at KSUS measured a 58 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1241793, 1241795, 1241796, 1241799, 1241802, 1241804.