Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, April 10, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

    - Showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe storms expected
      this Afternoon and Tonight.

Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies over GA with the
next frontal system developing over the western great lake states.
Currently there are two low centers, One centered over southern
IL/IN and the other over MN. Models show the 1st low pushing east
today into the OH/PA area by this evening with the second one
dumbelling around the backside of the 1st low moving rapidly SE into
KY/TN by the same time.

The tail end of the 1st lows cold front sweeps into the state Today
but it is lacking in moisture content. We should see mainly showers
and isolated thunderstorms across North GA late morning/afternoon
from it, but the second low really brings in the best chances of
precipitation this evening/tonight. The second low pushes its cold
front into NW GA right around 00z and it continues moving SE
overnight. This second front has much better moisture and
instability indices associated with it and will give us a much
better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Models begin developing convection across northern portions of the
CWA, (north of I-20) by mid to late afternoon. Models show the
better potential for more widespread convection will come in the
form of a line/MCS, right around 00z (give or take a few hours) with
the second front. Surface based CAPE will be modest (500-1000 J/Kg),
especially with dewpoints in the 50s. However, steep mid level lapse
rates on the order of 7.5-8 C/km are expected in the late
afternoon/evening. More organized convection that moves through the
CWA Tonight should begin to weaken as it pushes southward. This
appears likely as The steep lapse rates and capes begin to level off
with the loss of surface heating. large hail and gusty damaging
winds will be the primary severe weather hazard as this system moves
through. Also can not rule out and isolated brief tornado or two.

Will continue to see showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri as wrap
around moisture streams into the area around the backside of the
exiting second low. Temps Today will get up into the upper 60s to
70s with lows tonight mainly in the 50s with some 40s across the
north GA mountains. Will see slightly cooler temps Friday with highs
in the upper 50s to near 70s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

On Friday night, the cutoff upper level low will slowly meander
towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the
central CONUS will begin to build eastward, keeping Georgia
underneath northwesterly flow. Surface high pressure associated with
the ridge will also settle in over the Southeast on Saturday and
Sunday. The combination of these factors will keep dry weather and
mostly clear skies in place across the area through the weekend. A
tight pressure gradient ahead of the high will result in breezy
northwest surface winds and continuing cold air advection on
Saturday. After starting the morning in the upper 30s to low 40s in
north Georgia and mid 40s in central Georgia, high temperatures will
rise into low 60s to the north of I-85 (and upper 50s in the higher
elevations) and mid to upper 60s to the south of I-85. These highs
will be 6-12 degrees below daily averages. Low temperatures Saturday
night into Sunday morning will drop into the mid to upper 30s in
north Georgia and low 40s in central Georgia. Lower temperatures
approaching freezing in the northeast mountains could furthermore
warrant a Freeze Warning/Frost Advisory.

By Sunday afternoon, the ridge will move closer to the region as the
surface high shifts southeast of the forecast area, which will lead
to steadily warming temperatures into early next week. Highs on
Sunday will rebound into the low to mid 70s across the majority of
the area underneath sunny skies. A shortwave trough passing through
the Great Lakes will bring force the axis of the ridge and surface
high away to the east, with southerly winds and warm air returning
to the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should respond by
warming back into the low 80s across most of Georgia by Monday. As
the shortwave and an associated surface low move into southeast
Canada on Tuesday, a cold front will extend into the Tennessee
Valley and approach north Georgia. With the low pressure system
occluding well to the north, forcing and dynamics ahead of the front
will be limited. As such, only slight chance PoPs are forecast
across the far northern tier on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will
return by Wednesday in the wake of the front.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Mostly clear skies this morning with increased clouds and
SHRA/TSRA moving into the area this afternoon and tonight. Winds
are light and variable this morning but will see them turn to the
SW with speeds in the 8-12kt range shortly after sunrise. Will
begin to see precip move into the ATL area by 18z to 20z with the
best chance of precip beginning after 00z Fri. Will see periods
of SHRA/TSRA mostly overnight through daybreak Fri morning. Will
also see some higher wind speeds (10-15kt gust 25Kt) in and around
any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  50  66  43 /  20  50  30   0
Atlanta         74  52  66  44 /  20  60  30   0
Blairsville     65  43  58  37 /  60  60  60   0
Cartersville    73  47  66  40 /  30  50  40   0
Columbus        77  53  71  46 /   0  50  10   0
Gainesville     71  51  64  42 /  30  50  30   0
Macon           76  53  71  46 /   0  50  20   0
Rome            73  47  66  40 /  30  50  40   0
Peachtree City  76  50  68  42 /  10  50  30   0
Vidalia         79  57  74  49 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

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Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
602 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur in north and
central Georgia Today and Tonight, with the greatest risk of
severe storms expected between 4 PM and 2 AM early Friday morning.
The primary hazards with any severe storms will be damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and quarter to golf ball sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated Friday afternoon. A couple
strong storms with marginally severe hail could occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.