Thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front across northeastern and central Minnesota during the early afternoon hours of the 11th. While storms were generally below severe limits, one stronger storm moved through the Brainerd Lakes area and caused some damage to a boat dock and dropped some small hail as it moved through.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front across northeastern and central Minnesota during the early afternoon hours of the 11th. While storms were generally below severe limits, one stronger storm moved through the Brainerd Lakes area and caused some damage to a boat dock and dropped some small hail as it moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 11:53 AM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are possible again today, with some being strong to severe this afternoon and evening. General storms will continue into Saturday. - Probabilities are increasing for precipitation somewhere in the Northland as early as Sunday evening into Monday. Warm temperatures return Sunday through Tuesday. - Our next widespread chance for showers and storms will be early Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Patchy fog is present this morning, but should dissipate quickly with the sun rising. Instability will build throughout the morning ahead of a cold front which will move through the Northland this afternoon and tonight. As with the last couple days, instability is plentiful (1000-3000 J/kg) but shear is lacking (up to 15 kts). Most high res models still have no clue how to handle this convection. The HRRR is currently the best though, so leaning towards that solution for Probability of Precipitation for now. Convection is expected to initiate as the cold front dips to the southeast into north central Minnesota. Main hazards will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. PWats have decreased slightly in high res models as well, but storm motion will likely be along the front, increasing the chance for training. This may lead to heavy rainfall and localized ponding or flooding. Showers and storms will continue into Saturday, but the threat for severe weather towards the morning decreases. Though the cold front passes, the trough will remain in the area throughout Saturday. Southerly flow aloft will help to reinvigorate the instability across portions of northeastern into northwestern Wisconsin. Wind shear will have increased behind the cold front, with values in the 30s and 40s, and CAPE around 1000 J/kg. The wild card will be the cap aloft, which will inhibit initiation. If they do, some could be strong along our eastern CWA border. Temperatures will have a brief decrease in the 70s across the Northland before increasing again as warm air is advected into the region ahead of a trough. The strength of the trough still differs between models, but they are starting to agree that there will be showers and storms Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of another cold front. Some could, again, be strong to severe as models show sufficient instability and shear. The cold front will dip south late Tuesday. Models differ on the speed of the front, and how long chances for storms will accompany it. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions prevail across most of the region early this afternoon with some MVFR ceilings working into northern areas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase for later this afternoon and tonight. Confidence on coverage on timing is low. If a storm passes over a terminal, expected a brief period of IFR ceilings and visibilities and perhaps gusty winds. Some models try to bring some fog across northwest Wisconsin tonight, but thinking these VSBY reductions are more from rain than fog. Overall a low confidence forecast with very poor model agreement. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Variable winds over western Lake Superior today will only max out at around 10 kts. Showers and storms are possible over the lake this evening, and some have the potential to be strong to severe. Main threats will be gale force winds, hail, and cloud to water lightning. Winds will then increase out of the southwest tomorrow, but will still only gust to around 15 kts. Waves up to 2 ft are possible with the increased winds. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...BJH MARINE...KML
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Duluth MN 431 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-120945- Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore- Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis- Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- 431 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over north- central Minnesota, then moving east- southeast across northeast Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin for the rest of this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe with wind gusts to 60 mph, frequent lightning, and up to half-dollar size hail. There is a marginal risk of heavy rainfall that could lead to localized minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Another round of thunderstorms are expected for parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and early evening. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening. LSZ121-140>148-150-120945- Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN- Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN- Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN- Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN- Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI- Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI- Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland- 431 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe with frequent lightning, penny to half-dollar size hail, and wind gusts to 35 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There are additional thunderstorm chances on Saturday. The storms are not expected to be severe, but may produce gusts to 25 knots, small hail and frequent lightning. LE More information may be obtained at the following web address: http://www.weather.gov/duluth
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 171 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A 5 to 6 foot section of a dock was pulled out of the water. A few 3 foot in diameter tree branches were down from trees due to strong thunderstorm winds as well. Winds were gusty for about 20 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280489, 1280490.