Southwest flow focused a sea breeze collision toward the north FL I-95 corridor where a few strong storms developed.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Southwest flow focused a sea breeze collision toward the north FL I-95 corridor where a few strong storms developed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 1:39 PM EST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 239 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today through Tonight) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The forecast has not changed much with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms forming over the area at 2 PM. Expect scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms through the early evening, before diminishing in coverage by late evening. We've already had one storm in Marion storm that had a strong updraft to prompt a brief severe storms. Convective parameters remain favorable with MLCAPE analyzes at 2500-3000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches. Individual CAM model runs doing a poor job so far, but HREF overall gives better representation of current wx. Anticipate enhanced rain chances upwards of 55-70 percent rest of the aftn til about 6-7 pm around the I-10 corridor and then along a north-south area from near Bunnell, through JAX metro and into southeast GA around or west of Brunswick. There should be enough push to move scattered through beaches and into the nearshore waters, which should weaken. Anticipate that almost all convection will fade and dissipate after midnight. Lows tonight similar to the prior nights in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Not much change to the pattern through Saturday, with surface high pressure remaining east of the Florida Peninsula and a west to southwesterly flow expected. This will therefore support convection mostly beginning near the Gulf Coast sea breeze around midday to early afternoon before spreading inland and likely peaking late afternoon and into the evening hours as the southwest flow hits the nearly pinned east coast sea breeze. Guidance is in good agreement with respect to a wedge of drier PWATS in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range spreading into northeast FL, which will likely keep convection more widely scattered to scattered, especially south of about I-10. As per usual, isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday, though will most likely take more substantial boundary collisions given mid level temps near or warmer than climo. Above normal temps will continue Saturday with the southwest flow, as highs in the mid 90s will be common except near the immediate coast. Overnight lows Saturday Night will be mild in the mid to upper 70s. Low level high pressure starts to break down Sunday as surface troughing/broad low pressure shifts southward across the Florida Peninsula. This will provide a day of more northwesterly continental flow but also increased mean layer moisture as troughing settles in. With this, convection is expected to be more numerous Sunday, especially over northeast FL as some drier air tries to mix in aloft in the northwest flow over interior southeast GA. 500mb temps look warmer than normal once again however, and therefore minor flooding due to heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard, with secondary being strong gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Not any significant concerns regarding tropical/subtropical development with this area at this time, though will certainly watch close over the next few days. The presence of the low may also keep some convection going Sunday Night, especially over the waters/coastal region of northeast FL. Temps in the mid 90s will be common once again, with some readings in the upper 90s possible over interior southeast GA where PoPs are slightly lower. Sunday Night expect lows in the mid to upper 70s once again. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Troughing/weak low pressure will slowly move across the Florida Peninsula Monday and into the Gulf by Tuesday as high pressure builds back in from the northeast. As stated above, will certainly keep an eye on this area into the long term, as the Climate Prediction Center did include around 20% chance of tropical development with this disturbance over the Gulf for mid to late next week in their Week 2 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook earlier this week. Flow will become more south to southeasterly as high pressure will be positioned east/northeast of the region, keeping layer moisture high and therefore daily convection chances in the 60 to 80% range. Temperatures will likely remain above normal to start the long term period on Monday, though falling closer to climo for the rest of the long term. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 So far, isolated to scattered convection over the forecast area with TEMPO groups in effect generally through at least 23z, but VCTS started 18z and goes through about 02z or so. Some lingering rain/embedded tstorms may affect around JAX metro TAFs 01z-04z, before dissipating. IFR expected in the stronger storms. Otherwise, VFR or VFR cigs will prevail. A later start to convection on Saturday is anticipated but scattered storms probably will fire again at the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Outside of occasional scattered thunderstorms affecting the marine waters each day, no significant winds and seas expected with high pressure over central FL through the weekend, and then dipping southward a weak low pressure trough slides down from SC and GA. This will weaken the overall wind flow late Sunday into Monday with winds of about 10 kt and seas dropping off to about 2 ft. Otherwise winds of up to 10-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft will dominate the waters. More of southerly wind flow regime may begin on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening hours most of the days. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. There may an atypical convection pattern developing over the marine waters Sunday into Monday due to the low pressure troughing. Rip Currents: Low end moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches with surf of about 1-3 ft/1-2 ft. Overall, a lowering of the general risk looks probable over the weekend as surf drops off further. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 94 74 96 / 40 50 20 40 SSI 77 93 78 94 / 30 40 30 40 JAX 75 95 76 96 / 30 50 20 60 SGJ 75 95 77 94 / 30 30 30 60 GNV 73 96 74 95 / 20 40 10 70 OCF 73 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
445 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
GAZ149-163-250-350-112115-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Northern Ware GA-Southern Ware GA-
445 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...WEST
CENTRAL WARE AND CLINCH COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Homerville, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Homerville, Argyle, Du Pont, Cogdell, and Manor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3126 8266 3088 8242 3087 8242 3074 8272
3103 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 236DEG 25KT 3094 8270
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORLESSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
458 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
FLZ024-124-125-425-GAZ166-112130-
Western Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-Coastal Nassau FL-
Coastal Camden GA-
458 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NASSAU...
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...
At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yulee, or 8 miles southwest of Fernandina Beach, moving northeast at
20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Fernandina Beach, Yulee, Amelia City, and Dungeness.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3043 8158 3060 8172 3085 8147 3080 8142
3077 8142 3056 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 228DEG 17KT 3059 8158
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORLESSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
504 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
GAZ132-149-163-250-112130-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Coffee GA-Northern Ware GA-
504 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...
SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN WARE AND NORTHWESTERN CLINCH
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...
At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cogdell, or 8 miles southeast of Pearson, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cogdell, Bickley, Millwood, and Axson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3108 8291 3116 8297 3147 8264 3126 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 230DEG 22KT 3119 8280
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CORLESSPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
507 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0506 PM Hail 1 NE Fruit Cove 30.11N 81.61W
07/11/2025 E0.25 Inch St. Johns FL Public
Pea size hail was reported along Sweetwater
Branch Ln.
&&
KCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
514 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
FLZ125-132-233-325-333-433-533-633-112145-
Eastern Clay FL-Northern Inland St. Johns FL-Western St. Johns FL-
Southeast Coastal St. Johns FL-South Central Duval FL-
Northeast Coastal St. Johns FL-Coastal Duval FL-
Southern Inland St. Johns FL-
514 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ST. JOHNS AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
At 514 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Guana River State Park, or 10 miles south of Ponte Vedra Beach,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, World Golf Village, Sawgrass, Nocatee, Durbin,
Vilano Beach, Picolata, Palm Valley, South Ponte Vedra, and Bayard.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2985 8146 2985 8160 3010 8158 3026 8133
2997 8128 2990 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 238DEG 14KT 3009 8139
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CORLESSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
528 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
GAZ132-134-250-350-364-112200-
Bacon GA-Coffee GA-Western Charlton GA-Northern Ware GA-
Southern Ware GA-
528 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE... NORTHEASTERN
WARE...SOUTHWESTERN BACON AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM EDT...
At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Nicholls to 10 miles east
of Fargo moving east at 30 mph. This boundary will collide with
another boundary prompting strong thunderstorms to develop along the
collision.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Waycross, Alma, Stephen Foster State Park, Nicholls, Boggy Bay,
Pebble Hill, Dixie Union, Needham, and Bickley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3079 8217 3075 8238 3134 8263 3136 8263
3137 8264 3154 8272 3159 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 253DEG 24KT 3142 8270 3065 8239
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CHANEYThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Lightning likely caused a house to catch on | fire near Willow Island Point and Canopy | Forest Dr. The house was engulfed in flames. | Crews searched the property and determined | that all occupants had safely evacuated | before firefighters arrived.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1277265.