Extreme cold affected northwest Minnesota as a part of an extended arctic outbreak.
Every event with a place to put it; 25 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Extreme cold affected northwest Minnesota as a part of an extended arctic outbreak.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 5:39 PM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
539 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous wind chills continue through Thursday morning. The
coldest wind chills, between 40 below and 55 below zero, will
be Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
HCR's continue to produce showers out there this afternoon and
early evening with profiles looking to continue light snow into
the night. Will likley continue to see some drifting across
roads in the coming hours with winds around 10-13 mph and the
light snow from PM snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...Synopsis...
We are on the precipice of our extreme cold event. The center of
an upper low is beginning to dive southward this afternoon,
bringing us some solid cold air advection and isolated flurries.
For the most part, vorticity is parallel to the mean flow aloft,
so synoptic forcing for precipitation is very weak (low CVA).
Still, flurries may arise this afternoon beneath the HCRs that
have been forming today.
For the remainder of the week, we will be under what may be our
coldest air of the season. The minima of 850 temperatures will
begin to sweep down tonight, dive bombing us to below zero
through at least Thursday. Ensemble guidance bears a very strong
signal for warming by late this week into next weekend, with NBM
QMD even beginning to spit out a broad swath of >80% chances
for maximum temperatures getting above freezing by next Sunday.
...EXTREME COLD...
The main story of the period will continue to be the Extreme
Cold through at least Thursday. As cold air advection ramps up
through the day today, air temperatures will substantially fall
and won't recover until late week. Winds tonight are going to be
elevated enough between 10 and 15 mph such that apparent
temperatures will easily crush past 40-below. Areas tonight and
tomorrow night may push in to 60-below, but this looks to be a
low probability and isolated mainly to the west of our area.
Recoveries above warning thresholds (40-below) can be expected
during the day, with particularly strong recovery on Tuesday.
Having said that, however, wind chills can still be expected to
be at least 20-below with continued 30-belows as well.
Additionally, there is very likely to be a strong spatial
variation in wind chills, particularly around areas where there
is limited snowpack (like Grand Forks). This may allow for
better recovery during the day to where wind chills won't be as
extreme, but this will be something to watch.
Regardless, the message is this: outdoor activities can become
dangerous, particularly at night, as wind chills will be
significantly cold, even for our area. Whilst this isn't likely
to be a record breaking event by any means (at least via EFI
ensembles) this still falls under a substantial cold pattern for
our area and there is a 100% probability we will see 40-below
wind chills multiple times this week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Tricky forecast tonight with light snow continuing the next few
hours in not well into the night for some. These scattered snow
showers could transition into a stratus deck which yields
widespread light snow but things could equally clear out leading
to BKN015 or nearly clear skies by midnight. Other than
ceilings once the main snow shower activity wanes by 8pm
visibility should no longer be going in and out and remain 4+
miles past 9pm.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
NDZ006>008-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Tuesday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...TTHazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 428 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049- 052-053-171030- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Eastern Walsh- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland- 428 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Dangerous wind chills from 40 below to 50 below are expected tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Expect dangerous wind chills 40 below to 55 below Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The lowest values will be in the overnight and morning periods. Very cold wind chills may linger through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today. NDZ006>008-014-015-024-026-054-171030- Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Western Walsh- 428 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Very cold wind chills from 30 below to 40 below zero are expected through early evening across the Devils Lake Basin. Dangerous wind chills from 40 below to 55 below are then expected tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Expect dangerous wind chills 40 below to 55 below Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The lowest values will be in the overnight and morning periods. Very cold wind chills may linger through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
25 extreme cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station 213629 Greenbush MN NDAWN reported a wind chill off minus 48.
ASOS station KPKD Park Rapids AP MN reported a wind chill of minus 48.
Mesonet station 218649 Warren MN NDAWN reported a wind chill of minus 47.
Mesonet station FW0710 Frazee MN 3 E reported a wind chill of minus 47.
Mesonet station MN063 Verndale MN DOT reported a wind chill of minus 47.
Mesonet station MN044 Mahnomen MN DOT reported a wind chill of minus 47.
AWOS station KBJI Bemidji AP MN reported a wind chill of minus 46.
Mesonet station DVI05047 Gary MN 3 NE reported a wind chill of minus 45.
Mesonet station 7252D Maple Bay MN 4 S reported a wind chill of minus 45.
AWOS station KJKJ Moorhead AP MN reported a wind chill of minus 44.
Mesonet station GW5878 BAGLEY reported a wind chill of minus 43.
Mesonet station MN018 Shooks MN DOT reported a wind chill of minus 43.
Mesonet station GW5878 BAGLEY reported a wind chill of minus 43.
Mesonet station DVI04910 Stephen MN 6 NNW measured a -49 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN068 Brooks MN DOT measured a -49 wind chill.
Mesonet station 213879 Humboldt MN ndawn measured a -50 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN024 Donaldson Minnesota DOT measured a -51 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN056 Gatzke MN DOT measured a -50 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN014 Rothsay MN DOT measured a -49 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN138 Osage MN DOT measured a -50 wind chill.
AWOS station KTVF Thief River Falls airport Minnesota measured a -52 wind chill.
Mesonet station MN132 1 SSE Frazee MN DOT measured -50 wind chill.
AWOS station KFFM Fergus Falls airport Minnesota measured a -52 wind chill.
Mesonet station DVI09582 Elbow Lake MN 4 N measured a -49 wind chill.
AWOS station KFGN Flag Island Minnesota measured a -49 wind chill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1249329, 1249330, 1249331, 1249332, 1249333, 1249334, 1249348, 1249349, 1249350, 1249351, 1249354, 1249357, 1249359, 1248396, 1248397, 1248379, 1248378, 1248380, 1248401, 1248388, 1248372, 1248392, 1248374, 1248405, 1248414.