A slow-moving cold front draped across northeast Lower and central Michigan provided enough lift for development of some stronger storms, particularly for Gladwin County, where some wind damage occurred. Additional reports of rotation and a wall cloud in the vicinity of Skidway Lake in southern Ogemaw county, but no damage was reported.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A slow-moving cold front draped across northeast Lower and central Michigan provided enough lift for development of some stronger storms, particularly for Gladwin County, where some wind damage occurred. Additional reports of rotation and a wall cloud in the vicinity of Skidway Lake in southern Ogemaw county, but no damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:32 PM EST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 232 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible this afternoon and evening. Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm, with the primary concern being gusty to damaging winds. - Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July holiday weekend. - Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return for the latter half of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level closed low situated near James Bay with longwave troughing draped over the majority of the eastern half of the CONUS. Attendant weak low pressure situated over northeast Quebec with secondary cold front stretched southwestward over Ontario to near western Lake Superior back into the upper MS Valley. This boundary makes slow progress toward northern MI late this afternoon/evening before eventually clearing south of the forecast area and becoming more stationary downstate on Thursday. Heights aloft rise and sfc high pressure settles in locally Thursday/Thursday night before that boundary lifts back north effectively as a warm front during the day Friday. The second half of the weekend looks unsettled as low pressure treks across the northern tier of the country. Forecast Details: Blossoming cu field this afternoon, primarily north-central and northeast lower, and to a lesser extent, inland eastern upper. These areas the focus for initial potential shower/storm development (have already seen a couple of cells develop across northeast lower) this afternoon along inland penetrating lake breezes. Background synoptic winds around 10 kts likely to limit inland progress of lake breezes to some extent with the highest chances (albeit, still low) for an additional pop up shower/storm focused in the Lake Huron collar counties and the convergence axis near the Mackinac/Chippewa County line. MLCAPE on the order of around 1,000 J/kg in northeast lower, up to 500 J/kg in the eastern U.P. Combined with a textbook inverted- V profile and ~30 kts of bulk shear, there's a low chance for a strong-severe storm with strong winds and some hail as the primary threat. Additional shower/storm chances arrive from upstream this evening/overnight in advance of the aforementioned approaching cold front. Instability across our area expected to be less impressive than upstream over WI, and diminishing with time given a loss of daytime heating -- but none the less, given a generally similar environment as seen this afternoon, any stronger updrafts within any linear convective complex may be capable of strong to severe wind gusts. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, a more likely scenario is one that features a weakening, outflow dominant convective mode that continues to feature the possibility of gusty/strong (but sub-severe) winds. Highest chances for this are across northwest lower, perhaps as early as 6-7 PM, but more so mid- late evening into the early overnight hours. SPC continues to maintain the Day 1 Marginal Risk across much of northern lower MI. Shower/storm chances wane late overnight into Thursday morning as instability diminishes and the frontal boundary sags south across northern lower. Skies anticipated to become mostly sunny again tomorrow, although may continue to be a bit hazy due to Canadian wildfire smoke, with highs climbing back into the 70s far north and low-mid 80s far south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Day 2-4 (Thursday night - Sunday): Tonight/Thursday's cold front stalls downstate through Thursday night before effectively shifting north as a warm front on Friday/July 4th. 50th percentile high temps Friday range from the low 80s to low 90s with 90th percentile probs in the low-upper 90s. Some uncertainty exists with precip potential, although latest trends support a mainly dry July 4th across the Northwoods, despite increasing isentropic ascent. Hard to completely rule out a rogue shower/storm during the late afternoon/evening that may impact some holiday festivities, but very low potential and a lack of spatial coverage preclude that explicit mention in the forecast at this time. Another hot/humid day Saturday with high temps probabilities higher than that of Friday. 50th % probs feature highs in the low-upper 90s with 90th % climbing into the low 100s across parts of northern lower. The deterministic forecast still has highs within a handful of degrees of record at a few of northern MI climate sites (TVC/PLN/APN). By Saturday night, another mid-level wave and associated area of low pressure is expected to be trekking across the northern tier of the country. This should provide the region's best shot at more numerous showers and storms by late Saturday night into Sunday. Crude look at severe parameters through this time frame suggests perhaps a low end severe weather threat, although frontal timing looks less than ideal. Day 5-7 (Monday - Wednesday): Passage of the late weekend system should provide some relief to weekend heat/humidity as high pressure settles in to start next week. Dry conditions expected Monday/Tuesday, perhaps all the way through Wednesday, although the envelope of solutions does widen at the tail end of the forecast period with respect to rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Skies will be SCT-BKN generally around 6 - 8 kft with afternoon CU. TSRA forming over NE lower coast, not impacting terminals. VCTS will be possible near KCIU near 00Z, with chances moving towards northern lower terminals shortly after that. Chances of VCSH/VCTS linger through 08Z. Chances diminish after 10Z. Winds generally W/NW diminish to VRB AOB 5kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...ELD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 233 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-031845- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 233 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across northern Michigan this afternoon into the early overnight hours. A strong to marginally severe storm will be possible, with primary hazards being gusty winds and some hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated but any reports of strong to severe weather, as well as rainfall reports, are appreciated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-031845- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 233 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across northern Michigan this afternoon into the early overnight hours. A strong to marginally severe storm will be possible, with primary hazards being gusty winds and some hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated but any reports of strong to severe weather are appreciated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
134 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
MIZ030-021800-
Alcona MI-
134 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ALCONA COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM EDT...
At 134 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lincoln, or near Harrisville, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harrisville, Lincoln, Harrisville State Park, and Lost Lake Woods.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4461 8326 4452 8327 4461 8354 4478 8345
4483 8324 4475 8325 4470 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 291DEG 25KT 4468 8340
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ELDThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports from Gladwin county emergency management of trees down on powerlines in the vicinity of Lake Lancer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1296217.