New Mexico, 2025Flash Flooding in New Mexico, July 2 to 3, 2025
July 2 to 3, 2025 · NWS ABQ · 5 events in 5 counties and zones
Another burst of abundant monsoon moisture resulted in localized heavy rainfall July 2nd and overnight into July 3rd. Burn scar flash flooding off the Salt burn scar washed out culverts that then diverted water into the Cherokee Mobile home park near Ruidoso.
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- Deaths
- 2
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 5
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Another burst of abundant monsoon moisture resulted in localized heavy rainfall July 2nd and overnight into July 3rd. Burn scar flash flooding off the Salt burn scar washed out culverts that then diverted water into the Cherokee Mobile home park near Ruidoso. A late night round of strong thunderstorms developing along middle Rio Grande Valley produced very heavy rainfall measuring 1 to near 2.50 inches in Rio Rancho. Roads were washed out with dirt and debris in Rio Rancho and near Las Nutrias in northern Socorro County. Fast moving waters in the Albuquerque arroyo system swept away at least two people who were rescued, while a potential third person was reported also swept away.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 11:35 AM MST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New Mexico through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, mainly over area burn scars.
- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday, limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before rain chances rise Sunday going into early next week.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 11:35 AM MST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New
Mexico through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will
be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk
of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, mainly over area burn
scars.
- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
rain chances rise Sunday going into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
An inverted trough over the area is forecast to lift northeast out
of NM overnight and be replaced with increasing southwest flow
aloft as a Pacific low, currently over southern CA per the latest
water vapor, fills and moves east into AZ. Drier air aloft
rotating around the Pacific low will overtake the area Thursday
and result in increased moisture convergence. This, along with
more favorable veering wind profiles, instability generated by
daytime heating and added forcing from the shortwave trough
(formerly the Pacific low) will add up to increased chances for
storms, with some possibly becoming strong. Burn scar flash
flooding will still be a concern Thursday, but will hold off on a
flash flood watch for now given initial storm motion will be
cross-basin on the HPCC scar and forcing will be less impressive
further south near the Ruidoso area scars. A few storms may linger
after sunset Thursday evening across eastern NM where favorable
low level inflow will reside.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
PWATs will trend down dramatically on Independence Day as a drier
airmass moves in behind the departing shortwave trough and a
Monsoon high builds over NM through the holiday weekend. Expect a
significant downtrend in daily rounds of storms Fri/Sat, with a
few storms possible from the Sangre De Cristos east and south
toward Clayton, Tucumcari and Clovis where sufficient moisture
will remain. The Monsoon high is forecast to strengthen to near
595dam at 500mb over NM this weekend and will correlate with high
temperatures rising to a few degrees above average most areas.
PWATs will be back on the uptrend from early through mid next week
as the upper high moves slowly westward, away from NM and low
level moisture works northwest across the area under the upper
high circulation. As a result, rounds of daytime heating
triggered convection will be back on the uptrend, favoring the
mountains during the afternoon hours and nearby highlands and
valleys during the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will generally be a few degrees above average across central and
western NM next week under the influence of the upper high.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period across western NM, with moisture across eastern NM leading
to periods of MVFR conditions in low stratus. Shorter-lived IFR
conditions are possible at KLVS overnight. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms today will mostly likely impact KGUP, KROW and
KTCC, but probabilities are too low to include at other TAF
sites. MVFR conditions will accompany showers and storms today,
with potential for strong/erratic wind gusts across western NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Good chances for wetting showers and storms
will continue through Thursday and then get mostly shut-down on
Fri/Sat as drier air moves in from the west and the Monsoon high
builds over the region. Hotter conditions will prevail from late
weekend through the middle of next week under the influence of
the Monsoon high. Chances for wetting storms will be back on the
uptrend during the late weekend through mid week period as
moisture gets drawn into the Monsoon high circulation.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 62 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 0
Dulce........................... 48 83 46 86 / 30 70 20 5
Cuba............................ 56 81 54 85 / 50 70 30 0
Gallup.......................... 52 82 49 86 / 60 70 20 0
El Morro........................ 53 79 52 83 / 60 70 20 0
Grants.......................... 53 82 52 88 / 40 70 20 0
Quemado......................... 57 79 55 83 / 60 70 30 10
Magdalena....................... 61 80 61 87 / 40 70 20 5
Datil........................... 55 76 56 83 / 70 70 20 10
Reserve......................... 54 84 51 90 / 70 70 20 10
Glenwood........................ 57 88 56 93 / 70 70 20 20
Chama........................... 47 78 45 80 / 30 70 30 10
Los Alamos...................... 59 79 58 83 / 40 70 40 5
Pecos........................... 55 79 56 84 / 40 70 30 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 54 81 53 83 / 20 70 20 10
Red River....................... 45 70 45 74 / 30 70 30 20
Angel Fire...................... 41 73 42 77 / 20 70 30 20
Taos............................ 52 83 50 85 / 20 70 20 10
Mora............................ 47 77 50 82 / 30 70 30 10
Espanola........................ 60 88 59 92 / 40 60 20 0
Santa Fe........................ 59 81 58 85 / 50 70 20 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 59 85 58 89 / 40 60 20 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 30 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 66 89 64 94 / 40 50 20 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 91 64 96 / 40 50 20 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 89 66 94 / 40 50 20 0
Belen........................... 64 91 63 95 / 40 50 20 0
Bernalillo...................... 65 91 64 95 / 40 50 20 0
Bosque Farms.................... 63 90 62 95 / 40 50 30 0
Corrales........................ 66 91 65 95 / 40 50 20 0
Los Lunas....................... 65 90 63 95 / 40 50 30 0
Placitas........................ 63 86 63 90 / 40 60 20 0
Rio Rancho...................... 66 89 65 94 / 40 50 20 0
Socorro......................... 67 90 66 97 / 50 60 20 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 82 57 85 / 40 60 30 0
Tijeras......................... 59 83 59 88 / 40 60 30 0
Edgewood........................ 55 82 55 87 / 40 60 30 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 83 53 88 / 40 60 30 0
Clines Corners.................. 55 77 56 83 / 30 60 30 0
Mountainair..................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 0
Gran Quivira.................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 5
Carrizozo....................... 61 82 62 89 / 50 70 30 5
Ruidoso......................... 54 73 57 81 / 50 70 30 20
Capulin......................... 54 78 53 82 / 20 40 30 20
Raton........................... 54 83 54 87 / 20 50 30 20
Springer........................ 57 84 56 89 / 20 50 30 10
Las Vegas....................... 54 79 54 86 / 30 70 30 5
Clayton......................... 61 83 61 90 / 20 20 30 10
Roy............................. 59 80 58 88 / 20 40 30 5
Conchas......................... 64 86 64 95 / 30 40 30 0
Santa Rosa...................... 62 82 62 91 / 30 40 30 0
Tucumcari....................... 62 83 64 93 / 30 30 30 0
Clovis.......................... 63 82 65 93 / 50 30 30 5
Portales........................ 63 83 65 94 / 50 40 30 5
Fort Sumner..................... 63 84 64 95 / 30 30 30 0
Roswell......................... 67 85 68 96 / 50 40 20 0
Picacho......................... 62 81 61 90 / 50 70 30 5
Elk............................. 57 79 59 87 / 60 70 30 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.
&&
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
Flash Flood, Lincoln
- When
- July 2, 1:55 PM MST to 2:46 PM MST
- Where
- Lincoln County, 0.9 mi SW of Hollywood to 0.39 mi SW of Hollywood
- Cause
- Heavy Rain / Burn Area
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 33.310, -105.640
Burn scar flash flooding off the Salt burn scar produced high water flows and culvert issues diverting water into the Cherokee Mobile home park that ran right up to people's homes.
Flash Flood, Bernalillo
- When
- July 3, 12:45 AM MST to 2:00 AM MST
- Where
- Bernalillo County, 3.98 mi NE of Kirtland Afb to 3.89 mi E of Paradise Hills
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Deaths
- 0 direct, 1 indirect
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 35.091, -106.551
Heavy rainfall over the Albuquerque metro area produced dangerous fast flows on the area arroyo system. Two swift water rescues were performed in the diversion channel along I-40 and the Snow Heights neighborhood. Additionally, a man was trapped and swept up among floodwaters in an arroyo near Carlisle and Menaul Boulevard. Crews searched the North Diversion Channel and nearby areas for at least an hour before deploying an airboat in a washout area at Roy Avenue and Fourth Street. The man was not found in the washout area. The individual is assumed to have been deceased.
Flash Flood, Sandoval
- When
- July 3, 2:00 AM MST to 4:00 AM MST
- Where
- Sandoval County, 3.71 mi W of Rio Rancho to 5.42 mi NW of Rio Rancho
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Amateur Radio
- Coordinates
- 35.277, -106.725
Heavy rain exceeding 2 inches caused thick dirt and debris runoffs over roadways across western Rio Rancho which caused at least one road closure and debris removal efforts. During debris removal efforts around sunrise, road crews located a deceased male near the intersection of Northern Blvd. and Calor Rd. NW.
Flash Flood, Valencia
- When
- July 3, 3:00 AM MST to 4:30 AM MST
- Where
- Valencia County, 1.7 mi E of Valencia to 0.51 mi SE of Valencia
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 34.800, -106.670
A video from a KOB viewer on social media showed large areas of water inundating farmland and nearby properties around El Cerro. Time and location are estimated.
Flash Flood, Socorro
- When
- July 3, 4:00 AM MST to 5:45 AM MST
- Where
- Socorro County, 0.69 mi N of Las Nutrias to 0.73 mi N of Las Nutrias
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 34.480, -106.770
Overnight flood waters inundated a residence in Las Nutrias along NM 304. Flood waters also closed NM 304 at Las Nutrias Road, washing dirt onto the highway requiring debris removal later that day.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Wildfire in Washington, July 2 to 14, 2025$3.0 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, July 2 to 16, 2025$1.4 million · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Dust Storm in Arizona, July 2 to 3, 2025$103,000 · 74 kt wind · 9 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 2, 2025$59,000 · 60 kt wind · 5 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in New Mexico, July 2 to 3, 2025$50,000 · 52 kt wind · 3 events
- Wildfire in California, July 2 to 18, 20254 injured · 2 events
- Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 2, 2025$20,000 · 55 kt wind · 2 events
- Flash Flooding in Virginia, July 2, 20258 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, July 2, 202551 kt wind · 7 events
- Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in North Carolina, July 2, 20257 events
- Flash Flooding in Arizona, July 2, 20257 events
- Flash Flooding in Texas, July 2, 20257 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1259831, 1259832, 1259833, 1260026, 1259834.