Deep tropical monsoon moisture interacted with an approaching upper level low moving towards the southern California coastline to bring strong thunderstorms and flash flooding to the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Deep tropical monsoon moisture interacted with an approaching upper level low moving towards the southern California coastline to bring strong thunderstorms and flash flooding to the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 10:10 AM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1010 AM MST Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions return for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...A closed low continues to remain to the west of the area this morning but is expected to lift and cross the region over the next 36 hours or so. With the ridge situated to our east, we will continue to have a strong southerly fetch and advection of moisture into the region. As the low pushes to the east, it will bring in some enhanced dynamics and help to provide additional lift to the region. With the increased moisture and strong lift present, we should see more widespread storms. PWATs around 1.00" today lend support to efficient rainmaking storms today. Throw in the slower storm motion and we will see an increase in the probability for flash flooding to occur. Additionally, some of the stronger storms will see gusty winds around 40-50 mph and small hail, with isolated severe gusts possible. Similar conditions exist for Thursday, but as the low/trough pushes further east, we will see some drier air start to push into our western areas and PWATs will drop down closer to 0.60-0.80" across the region. This will push the better chances for showers and thunderstorms eastward through the day. Friday onward...As the low passes to the north and east, a more westerly flow develops and brings in some much drier air. Some isolated chances for showers may continue across far eastern Arizona, mainly the White Mountains, but even that is looking to be <10% through Friday. For the weekend, things dry out further and little to no precipitation is expected in our forecast area. Temperatures will also start to warm once again for the weekend and we could see temperatures nearing 110 degrees in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon by Sunday. By the end of the weekend, the high retrogrades and moves across Arizona/New Mexico before settling over the Great Basin around the middle of next week. This will bring back hot temperatures and is not really a great set up to keep showers and thunderstorms in our area. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 02/18Z through Thursday 03/18Z...Widespread -SHRA/-TSRA forecast through at least 04Z. Reduced visibilities from heavy rain likely in stronger storms. Expect winds to be S through W 10-20 kts gusting near 25-30 kts, but gusty/erratic outflow winds near 35-45 kts possible through 04Z. Light and variable winds look to return after 06Z. HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby wildfire. OUTLOOK...Thursday 03/18Z through Saturday 05/18Z...Mostly VFR conditions expected through the outlook period. Brief MVFR conditions possible Thursday between 18Z and 00Z due to -SHRA/-TSRA, primarily along and east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line. Look for SW-W winds 10-20 kts each afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts. Gusty/erratic winds possible on Thursday due to showers/storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Brief downpours, hail, and gusty, erratic winds with gusts to 40-50 mph possible in and around thunderstorms. Outside of storms, expect SW winds 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph each day. Friday through Sunday...Isolated showers possible near the White Mountains on Friday. Otherwise, expect warmer and drier conditions through the weekend with afternoon RH values dropping back down into the teens. SW- W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1214 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0520 PM Flash Flood 3 NNW Chino Valley 34.80N 112.48W
07/01/2025 Yavapai AZ Trained Spotter
Video and photos sent via email of flooding
over N. Reed Road between W 5 N Rd and W 4.5
N Rd from Yuma Wash.
&&
PTKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
101 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025
AZZ008-037-022100-
Yavapai County Mountains AZ-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins AZ-
101 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM MST...
At 101 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayer, or 15 miles southeast of Prescott, moving northeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Prescott Valley, Dewey-Humboldt, Mayer, Spring Valley, Mt. Union
and Poland Junction.
This includes State Route 69 between mile markers 265 and 279.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3434 11232 3441 11241 3455 11228 3439 11209
3428 11225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 225DEG 5KT 3438 11229
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
BernhartThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A county official reported a 5 foot rise in 45 minutes at the Rio de Flag Coconino County ALERT gauge located near the Flagstaff Mall.
Yavapai County Sheriff's Office reported a bridge in Spring Valley was impassable with water flowing over the road. A car was also stranded on the bridge.
A USGS stream gauge on the Little Colorado River near Woodruff reported a 6.3 foot rise in one hour from near nearby thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall.
Public reported, via social media, a video of flash flooding in Big Bug Creek across a low water crossing.
Public sent via social media a video of a flash flood along Big Bug Creek. The person posting the video said it was the highest flow since 2021.
A Yavapai County river gauge on the Agua Fria River at Kelton Ranch reported a 6.3 foot rise in 15 minutes. Peak flow was 9,515 cubic feet per second.
A USGS river gauge on the Agua Fria River at Cordes Lakes reported at 5.9 foot rise in 45 minutes from thunderstorms upstream along Big Bug Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1262000, 1262050, 1262013, 1262054, 1262052, 1262041, 1262029.