Damaging Wind in Iowa, May 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1240 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be scattered showers and storms this evening as a
  cold front moves south through the area.

- After a couple of days of near normal temperatures,
  temperatures will become warmer than normal for this weekend
  and early next week.

- Rain chances return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

A cold front will move south through the area this afternoon
and tonight. The 07.12z models continue to show some weak
convergence along this front at both the surface and aloft.
While most models are in general agreement that the surface-
based CAPES are between 500 and 1000 J/kg along and ahead of
this front, the RAP surface-based CAPES are in the 3-4K range
for late this afternoon and early evening. This is due to this
model having unrealistically high dew points (mid- to upper
60s). As a result, opted to follow the model consensus. With
weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, not anticipating any severe
weather with these storms. As the instability gradually weakens
late this evening, the showers and storms will be more gradually
dissipate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

Thursday through Sunday night

High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather
across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will be
near-normal for Thursday and Friday and then as 925 and 850 mb
temperature gradually warm, surface temperatures will range from
the mid-70 to around 80 for the weekend. This is 5 to 10F
warmer than normal.

Monday through Tuesday

A low over the western Gulf will gradually move northeast into
the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys. As this occurs, the
surface-based CAPES will climb up to 500 J/kg. This will result
in a return of showers and storms return to the forecast (20-40%
chance). With weak 0-3 and 0-6 km shear, severe weather is not
anticipated.

Am a bit concerned that the NBM might be too warm with its high
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as more clouds and slightly
cooler 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures move into the area from
the southeast. Even then, the high temperatures should still be
5 to 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

CIGS: mid/high clouds through the night. Could see some lowering
with any convection, but still looks VFR.

After 12z Thu, a few models are suggesting an increase in low
level saturation from the east/northeast. Some potential for a
few hours of MVFR. Confidence shaky in this outcome and not high
enough to add to the forecast - yet. Will monitor and adjust if
this scenario becomes more likely.

WX/VSBY: CAMS models remain enthusiastic with developing a west
to east line of late afternoon/early evening convection - along
a sfc front-instability axis-with upper level shortwave aid. The
preponderance of the models spark along/north of I-90 toward
21z. Easterly flow will promote a westerly movement with
gradual decrease in areal coverage after sundown. Cloud bases
will be high - mostly 8 kft - with sub cloud evaporation
limiting potential rainfall amounts. Will continue mix of
PROB30/VCSH in TAFS to cover chances (with higher chances - 40%
or so - at KCID and KMLI).

WINDS: gradient winds holding mostly east/northeast through the
period with an uptick to around 10 kts for the evening. Looks to
hold there into Thu.

Any convective elements for late afternoon/early evening have
the potential to produce variable gusts in the low/mid 20kts as
pcpn evaporates and accelerates colder air surface-ward.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1250 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081800-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1250 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from late this
afternoon into tonight. No severe weather is anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Patchy frost is possible Thursday night in the low-lying areas
of northwest Illinois. Any cold-sensitive vegetation should be
either covered or brought indoors.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or tonight.

Boyne

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
450 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Hail             1 SW Teeds Grove        42.00N 90.26W
05/07/2025  E0.50 Inch       Clinton            IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&